2024 NBA Draft Lottery: Top pick gives the Hawks many paths at the fork in the road

It’s clear that this offseason will define the overall direction for the organization.

The Hawks received a very big stroke of good fortune this past Sunday at the 2024 NBA Draft Lottery.

Carrying slim lottery odds for their sole pick in the upcoming draft, the ping-pong combinations landed on one of the 30 (out of a possible 1000) combinations able to launch Atlanta from their 10th-best odds up to the very top.

Almost immediately, speculation began over whether the Hawks would even use that pick at all began from national insiders. Lucky talisman and general manager Landry Fields himself did his best to pump the brakes on transaction talk immediately upon learning the pick’s fate, saying:

It’s obvious that you’d rather have the no. 1 pick versus the no. 10 pick in any draft, even if the class profiles as more uncertain than most. But it’s even more abundantly clear that the Hawks need to weigh all of their options having been bestowed this good favor.

In the two seasons of the Trae Young-Dejounte Murray partnership, the Hawks have gone a combined 77-87 with a Play-In Tournament win, a Play-In Tournament loss, and a first-round exit to show for it. In essence, the team handed San Antonio three future picks, two of them unprotected, and a pick swap just for the ignominy of being relegated to an afterthought in the NBA.

And so those events bring us to an unfortunate crossroads. Are there big changes on the horizon? The trade rumor mill seems to think so.

They way I see it, there are now four clear roads the Hawks can now trek as they attempt to get back on track towards relevancy, let alone contention. To be perfectly clear, I’m not necessarily endorsing any one path over the other — nor are these scenarios equal in likelihood to happen. This is just an attempt to tackle what the potential fallout from each would look like.

Let’s explore them all.

Path 1: The Trae Young Build

There were always going to be detractors to the idea that putting two ball-dominant, small guards on the court at the same time would lead to success. How do you properly leverage off ball actions to attack defenses? Is the offense destined to devolve into ‘my turn, your turn’? How do you prevent your two sub-180-pound guards from being targeted on the other end?

Well the results so far are such that the team is more productive with either one on the floor but not both. Across the past two seasons, the team has around a +3 net rating (point differential per 100 possessions) with Young but without Murray and a -1 net rating with Murray but without Young. Compare that to a -3 net rating with both sharing the floor (although the effects of the other players in the starting/closing lineups have tangible pull on these stats).

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Two star-level players should elevate the play of the team when sharing the floor — leveraging their gifts in unison to overwhelm competition with their collective talent. And yet, Atlanta’s star pairing was particularly unimpressive in 2023-24 — so much so that I declared myself out on this iteration of the team at the trade deadline.

Young is a three-time All-Star who had brought top-10 offenses in each of the three seasons prior to his injury-riddled 2023-24 campaign. He is undoubtedly one of the best offensive engines in the league, although one that requires a large share of the ball.

Why not better complement the dynamic guard with team builds more akin to the Dallas Mavericks or the New York Knicks — two teams showing considerable fight in the current playoffs around their do-it-all guards? This means long perimeter defenders, capable shooters, and 48 minutes of tough rebounding and shot blocking from the centers — i.e. both horizontal and vertical spacing.

The Hawks and Pelicans reportedly flirted with a trade late in the cycle last season centered around Dejounte Murray. New Orleans also seems headed towards a divorce with Brandon Ingram, who will be a free agent in the summer of 2025. Could the Hawks pry the slender 6-foot-8 forward away using Murray? He would be an obvious upgrade in defensive length along with the ability to get his own shot on offense.

Or one of the many accomplished Pelicans wing role players instead? Herb Jones and Trey Murphy III would presumably be at the top of the wishlist there.

The resulting team would have a size upgrade on the perimeter as a way to better insulate Young defensively. The offensive pecking order may even have more clarity as well, in that Ingram has played second fiddle to an (occasionally) healthy Zion Williamson for years now.

With the top overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft now in tow, that asset could bring some real juice towards greasing the wheels of any trade where Murray goes out if needed.

The market for him was reportedly tame this past February and may continue to be so. Or the Hawks could hold firm on the pick, draft a promising Young partner, and take back what little they can get in return for Murray.

But the options are there at least.

Path 2: The Dejounte Murray Build

What if the Hawks deal the other guard instead?

It’s a notion that sounded unthinkable as of just a few weeks ago. The idea the Hawks would part with their franchise cornerstone since 2018 sounds absolutely stunning.

But slowly, the rumblings are growing about Trae Young’s possible dissatisfaction with the franchise. Three straight years of not progressing past the first round in the playoffs can certainly do that.

Some of the biggest names among NBA insiders have lately dropped small nuggets about the unfolding situation.

Shams Charania of The Athletic:

Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN:

Brian Windhorst of ESPN:

The idea of sending Trae Young to San Antonio to pair up with starlet Victor Wembanyama to form an absolutely lethal pick-and-roll duo would certainly be an earth-shattering revelation that would reverberate throughout the league. This kind of deal would be made even more interesting given the trade business the Hawks and Spurs had just two offseasons ago.

The return for a deal like that would seem to start with Atlanta’s own 2025 unprotected first-round pick, the 2026 pick swap rights, and the 2027 unprotected first-round pick from the original Dejounte Murray trade along with, say, Keldon Johnson and others. This return would, in theory, protect against an unintended bottoming out during the post-Young era.

Or could Trae Young head to the Lakers?

Los Angeles has much less in the way of draft assets and would be more of a player-intensive package (as an aside, the salaries of Austin Reaves, Rui Hachimura, and Jarred Vanderbilt or Gabe Vincent together happen to very nearly equal Trae Young’s salary in the upcoming season).

Dejounte Murray has never led an elite offense, in contrast to Young, dating back to his days in San Antonio. But with Murray locked in at arguably a below market rate for the next four year, could the Hawks hand him the reins? Even if he is just a ‘bridge quarterback’ until the next franchise point guard becomes available, the move could be cost effective for the time being and give the Hawks more roster flexibility elsewhere.

For reference, Dejounte Murray’s four-year, roughly $120 million contract kicks in this season — arguably at a below market rate. With the recent extensions given out to the likes of De’Andre Hunter, Clint Capela, and Onyeka Okongwu — whose four-year, $62 million deal kicks in this fall as well — the Hawks have inched themselves towards the tax line for 2024-25 even before handling Saddiq Bey’s free agency and, further down the line, Jalen Johnson’s looming extension.

And I have a bridge to sell you over State Farm Arena if you expect the Hawks to finish above the luxury tax line in the upcoming seasons without Trae Young.

We may have even seen a sneak preview of the Young-less Hawks when Young suffered an RCL tear in his left pinky. With Vit Krejci inserted into the starting lineup alongside Dejounte Murray and Bogdan Bogdanovic, the Hawks had some real highs during last March in solidifying a Play-In berth despite missing their best player.

Given that Murray isn’t the passer or facilitator that Young is, the extra ball-movers in the lineups is necessary. But his ability to isolate and get his own shot can keep offenses afloat during rough times.

It’s a pathway with its drawbacks to be sure — possibly requiring step back to regain roster flexibility and eventually take two steps forward.

Path 3: The Youth Movement Build

Maybe it’s time to admit defeat. Maybe this whole thing was doomed from the start.

Landing the top pick gives the Hawks a reason to pivot toward building around that pick. If Young and Murray would both rather be in greener pastures, selecting from the best talents in the draft could be a good time reset and reorganize the entire team structure.

Alex Sarr has frequently been brought up as the best talent in the draft. He’s as good a candidate as any to turn around the 27th-best defense from a year ago. Maybe it’s time to anoint him the next franchise pillar similar to how the Hawks did Young in 2018.

As brought up in Path 2, trading Young to the Spurs would presumably bring back the 2025-through-2027 draft equity and give Atlanta reason to not try so hard towards competing in the near future.

Why not also deal Murray at that point? The age-29-and-over crew of Bogdanovic and Capela? Your time in Atlanta may have reached its end.

Kobe Bufkin, AJ Griffin, Seth Lundy, Jalen Johnson, and Mouhamed Gueye? Your time is now.

The Hawks could viably lean into a full blown retooling effort if they regained their future first-round draft picks. The Oklahoma City Thunder have made an art of stockpiling draft assets in a smaller NBA market, for example. Certainly, they’ve had some fortunate results from recent NBA drafts to accelerate their own rebuild, something not guaranteed for Atlanta, but if the ultimate aim is to build a championship contender, this is a possible option.

Short term, the basketball product would be difficult to consume. Rebuilds can be painful and always require patience. But with a development-heavy stuff under Quin Snyder, maybe the long term gains could eventually make the franchise glad they took the scenic route.

Path 4: The Double Down Build

Here’s the truly exotic plan: what if the guard pairing just needs tweaking around it?

After all, the two players are signed until 2026 at the very least when Trae Young is able exercise his early termination option and become an unrestricted free agent.

Reject all trade offers and embrace chaos.

And to show how committed the Hawks are toward maximizing that two-year window, they’ll need to cash in the first overall pick for immediate gains.

What could the Hawks get in terms of a veteran NBA player or players in a trade with the no. 1 pick as the centerpiece?

I honestly have no idea.

Would it be lighting on fire the last tangible prime asset until 2028 for maybe another pair of first-round exits? And then the two guards leave for even less of a return?

That’s a strong possibility.

This would be the equivalent of cashing in your life’s savings, heading to Las Vegas, and putting it all on black at the roulette table.

If it works, it’s genius.

If it doesn’t, hoo buddy — at that point, I might be better off turning this into a birdwatching blog.