There’s an obvious consensus forming.
As we should know by now, mock drafts are largely works of artistic interpretations. Projecting how teams value various NBA prospects at the different draft slot pecking orders is an inexact science.
However, mock drafts for the first overall pick are a much simpler projection than any lower spot. There’s only one real variable: who would this team want over all other candidates irrespective of the other 29 teams.
And, for the first time since the invention and the widespread proliferation of the internet, your Atlanta Hawks own the top pick in the NBA draft.
Thus, it’s time to dive into who the smart draftniks around the web envision for the Hawks with that number one overall pick.
Sam Vecenie of The Athletic released a post-lottery mock draft this week. In it, he writes about the state of the 2024 draft class:
This draft class is still seen as weak among NBA teams, particularly those at the top. I will not rank anyone in my Tier 1 or Tier 2, the first time that’s happened since I began using this system. Over the last two years, I’ve ranked nine players that highly, but this class doesn’t have anyone I’d consider a top-three pick in a normal draft.
NBA teams believe a number of players in the top 10 can help fill out their rosters and round out their cores. This draft is light on shooting, especially within the top group of players, but it possesses solid wing depth near the top, a number of smaller guards who profile as potential starters and some bigs as far down as the late-first, early-second-round range who should be rotation players in the future.
There are players to be found in every class. This year just might be riskier than prior seasons.
Here’s where we stand now that we officially have a draft order.
The pick here is a seven-footer from France, whose name we will continue to see going forward.
1. Atlanta Hawks
Alex Sarr | 7-1 big | 19 years old | Perth Wildcats
Sarr emerged early in this draft cycle as a potential No. 1 pick. His performance against the G League Ignite in early September had scouts coming away believing he was the best prospect on the court.
Sarr is a difference-maker on defense who covers a ton of ground with his arms and quick feet, similar to bigs such as Memphis’ Jaren Jackson Jr., Cleveland’s Evan Mobley and Brooklyn’s Nic Claxton. He flies around rotating off the ball and can handle himself in a variety of ball-screen coverages, ranging from switching to drop. If he’s waiting at the rim and opponents challenge him, odds are he’ll get contest the shot, if not outright block it.
The other end is the question. Sarr has shown potential as a rim runner in ball screens, but for the most part, his offensive game involves pick-and-pops, and he doesn’t make great screen contact. He’s not a high-impact defensive rebounder, which has led to some questioning if he can consistently play center in the NBA. If Sarr indeed requires a more physical center alongside him, his limited offensive game may be exposed. He’s best served playing next to a floor-spacing five, or he’d need to become a dangerous perimeter shooter himself.
There is not really a consensus among teams about what the Hawks will do at the top. I’ve given them Sarr here because they finished in the bottom four on defense last season and have Clint Capela entering the final year of his contract. Sarr makes the most sense, at least.
James Edwards III also of The Athletic in a separate, collaborative mock draft with other writers also taps Sarr as his choice for Atlanta:
1. Atlanta Hawks
Alex Sarr | 7-1 big | 19 years old | Perth Wildcats
I had a gut feeling going into the lottery that this year a team with low odds for the No. 1 pick would get it. We were overdue. The Hawks, with a three percent chance to win it, ended up doing so and I think it’s a no-brainer that they should take Sarr. The 19-year-old has the highest upside of anyone in this weak class and could be a legitimate defensive positive right away. Offensively, he’s more of a pick-and-pop big and isn’t the most physical player, but the shooting and ball-handling skills for someone his size are very, very intriguing. With Clint Capela entering the final year of his contract and questions about Onyeka Okungwu’s long-term projection, Sarr makes too much sense.
Jeremy Woo of ESPN, alongside Jonathan Givony, makes it a clean sweep:
1. Atlanta Hawks
Alex Sarr
Perth
PF/C
Age: 19.0
The Hawks caught lightning in a bottle in Sunday’s lottery, converting on just a 3% chance to win (10th-best odds) the top pick. Suffice it to say, this is a major stroke of fortune for Atlanta, which doesn’t control its own first-round pick again until 2028, owing future picks and swaps to the San Antonio Spurs. This had been viewed as an offseason of potentially big changes for Atlanta, as the Hawks weigh the luxury tax and attempt to navigate their way out of the middle of the Eastern Conference standings. Now they’ll unexpectedly have a chance to pick who they want from atop the draft.
Coming off a solid year in the NBL, Sarr is the most physically gifted big in this class, and could give Atlanta a much-needed element of size and floor spacing from the frontcourt. He’ll have work to do in expanding his offensive game, sharpening his 3-point range and adjusting to the speed of the NBA, but could be quite valuable as someone who can stretch the floor and protect the rim at both the 4 and 5 spots. If the goal is to build a better defense around Trae Young, Sarr looks like a strong fit because of his versatility on both ends of the floor.
So maybe the consensus has formed already around Sarr, and the reveal on June 26 will end up being anticlimactic. But as we still have six weeks until draft day, it will remain important to monitor all updates coming out of the combine and interview processes.