Is he a take at no. 1?
[Editor’s note: this is the second half of the scouting report for Alexandre Sarr. Part 1, Sarr’s defense, can be found here]
Scoring/offense
Let’s move on to Sarr’s offense/scoring — it’s a work in progress at the moment, a bit raw in places. Sarr averaged 9.6 points per game on 50% shooting on just over seven attempts last season. Sarr also averaged 1.5 offensive rebounds per game, and he uses these second chance opportunities to create opportunities for himself.
Off of a miss, Sarr gets the positioning advantage on the rebound and he tips in the offensive rebound:
In a crowd off of a miss, Sarr gets stuck in and comes up with the ball and draws the foul and free throws on the second attempt:
Again, off of a miss, Sarr reaches for and secures the ball, and sticks through the shot and the foul:
Off of a miss at the rim, Sarr gets himself amongst two defenders, and sticks the second chance through:
Off of a miss at the rim, Sarr is on hand to support and stick through the offensive rebound and second chance:
Sarr also looks to try and create some offense for himself off the dribble, so let’s look at that next.
Here, Sarr takes advantage of the steal attempt and promptly drives into the lane and dunks:
Sarr can be effective when he’s got a head of steam, as he does on this play as he contests the shot on one end and then trails the play, receives the ball, and continues his march into the lane where he hits the runner:
Here, Sarr receives the ball at mid-court, and he drives into the lane, spins, takes the contact and hits the turnaround shot:
Again, the ball is dropped to Sarr near mid-court where drives, hesitates, and then drives and spins inside to finish at the rim:
This opens up for Sarr in transition too, where his speed makes him a threat on or off the ball.
Off of a turnover, Sarr picks up the loose ball and leads the charge, driving inside to the paint and hits the runner:
In support this time, Sarr fills his lane in transition, receives the ball and does well to finish with his left hand:
On this next play, Sarr trails behind the ball handler and is in place to receive the dump off, and his size and length help him evade the defense as he scores the runner:
That play will serve as a good segue, as Sarr finds himself often in good places to receive dump offs from teammates around the dunker’s spot for finishes at the rim.
Sarr does well here to just relocate away from the focused help defender and receives the ball underneath the rim where he scores:
Again, Sarr is waiting behind the defense, and when it has the attention of the incoming drive, Sarr receives the pass and finishes at the rim:
Sarr is again on hand to benefit from the drive, receives the dump off and finishes at the rim:
In terms of pick-and-roll, sometimes it was a mixed bag for Sarr, whose touch on his runners/floaters didn’t always serve him well.
On a make on this play, Sarr, again, is good when he’s got downhill pace, and he catches, gets to the rim and finishes:
On this possession, Sarr engages in the pick-and-roll, receives the ball but misses around the rim:
Again, Sarr is involved in the ball screen but can’t hit his runner:
This time, Sarr’s screen is rejected, but he trails the play from behind and is found but his runner is long:
The success of Sarr’s more finessed work around the rim in the halfcourt is a little of a mixed bag. And I would have liked to have seen more of Sarr receiving the ball in pick-and-roll and attacking the rim.
Of other items on Sarr’s offensive list to improve upon, the most glaring is arguably perimeter shooting, where Sarr shot 27.6% on 1.9 attempts.
Let’s take a look at some of these misses, starting with this above the break three attempt coming after a pick-and-pop:
Coming off of another screen, Sarr retreats to the three-point line, receives the ball and misses the three:
Again, another pick-and-pop scenario, but Sarr is unable to connect:
Off the ball this time on the weakside, Sarr receives the ball and misses the catch-and-shoot three:
On this play, the ball is worked towards Sarr, who takes a step inside and this time connects on the three-pointer:
I think there is hope for Sarr’s jumper though, and he was able to get into some confident jump shots inside the arc.
Here was an odd possession where Sarr gets in the way of his own man but makes up for it as he rises into the long contested jumpshot:
Coming out of the pick-and-roll, Sarr elects to step inside the arc and get to his spot and he rises into the jump shot:
Again, on the move, Sarr gets to his spot and rises into another jump shot:
This next clip isn’t entirely related, but I just wanted to include it; it’s a broken sort of play where Sarr basically freewheels it, and hits a turnaround jump shot from the block:
I think there is potential in the jump shot, and Sarr shoots a decent 70% from the free throw line too, so with a bit of work I think Sarr can become a passable three-point shooter. And the success of this will play a determining role in his overall ceiling: a 7-footer who can block shots and hit threes? I think every team would value such a skillset.
Passing/playmaking
While Sarr only averages an assist a game, he possesses some strong basketball IQ and awareness of his surroundings.
Sarr can make some good reads and passes out of pick-and-roll, such as this play where two defenders commit to Sarr, who fires the ball out behind the arc for the three-point attempt:
On the handoff and then roll, Sarr receives the ball but immediately knows where he’s heading with it and fires the ball to the weakside corner for a three-point attempt:
In another pick-and-roll action, Sarr receives the ball and promptly offloads the ball behind him to his open teammate for a three-point attempt:
This time, Sarr’s screen is rejected, he receives the ball, and finds his teammate in the corner for an assist on a three:
Sarr, generally speaking, makes good reads, and is also able to use his speed to get inside the three-point line on this possession to draw the defense and then kick it back to Bryce Cotton for three-point attempt:
Sarr can also make some opportunities in the open court, blocking the shot on one end before setting off in transition and finds his teammate for an assist:
His size also helps him pass over defenses on occasion, as he does so here on the assist on the pass from the three-point line:
As you can see, Sarr has some passing ability, and that’s always welcome in your frontcourt. The fact he can make the read out of the pick-and-roll, he’s willing to pass, he can even create opportunities of his own on the drive/on the move I think is great benefit to Sarr’s overall game — it’s just a bonus to everything else he can provide, or what he can provide in the future.
In closing…
Alex Sarr is one of the most tantalizing prospects in this entire draft class with big upside. His defensive potential is mouth-watering: teams highly value shot blocking seven footers who move in any way like Sarr can.
His physicals are fantastic, and his length and height combine to make a fascinating defensive prospect. Sarr is a fluid athlete and should be able to guard multiple positions in the frontcourt. His length and size help him block shots, deter/contest shots, deflect/force passes, and disrupt drives with strong digs.
He’s able to move well with ball handlers on switches, and once some of his other defensive fundamentals are improved on it will be interesting to see how many positions Sarr may be able to guard. His timing on help situations could be better, and this should be something that is easily workable with NBA coaching and time. Sarr needs to fill out his frame somewhat as he can shifted physically in some situations, but again, this will come in time.
There’s a lot of defensive upside here with Alex Sarr, and right now it’s his best aspect of his game.
Offensively, it’s a work in progress. Sarr can turn defense into offense with his steals and blocks, and his ability to run in transition serves him well. His work on the offensive glass is another area his physical attributes help him succeed, and he does well to stick with plays and score second chance opportunities.
Elsewhere, Sarr’s ability to move well on his feet helps him become a factor on the offensive end, especially when he gets downhill toward the rim with a head of steam. His finishing when he gets to the rim can be a mixed bag, as sometimes his touch on his runners/floaters isn’t quite consistent yet, but he’s a solid finisher and that will continue to improve.
One of the factors in determining Sarr’s ceiling in the NBA will be how he grows offensively, and his perimeter shooting is a huge element in deciding how high that ceiling is. Right now, it’s not the most efficient shot, but there’s enough to see of Sarr rising into jump shots and making jump shots — especially off the dribble — which opens up some interesting options if he can figure out his three-point shot and to believe that there is potential there.
I think Sarr will only grow in terms of ball handling and operating off of the dribble. I don’t know if he’ll be a primary ball handler in the future and initiate, but I think he’s going to have the versatility to bring the ball up on multiple possessions every game even if doesn’t become a primary ball handler like that.
And finally, Sarr has some passing in his game, and while it may not be anything high-level right now, it’s certainly another tool in his arsenal. He can spot passes, he’s willing to pass, and he can make some good reads out of pick-and-roll — these are great aspects to have at seven feet tall.
In terms of what position he plays, I think teams can look at the success of Chet Holmgren and choose whether Sarr plays four or five. Right now, I’d be more inclined to say more of a four that can play five, as opposed to exclusively a five. I think as time progresses and he adds more muscle, naturally fills out and his tendencies as a center continue to improve, you’ll see Sarr start at center, unquestionably. Right now, I think he could certainly play alongside Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu — I’d feel a little better about that in his rookie season than playing the five next to Jalen Johnson.
Alex Sarr is absolutely worthy of number one selection conversation, certainly more so — in my opinion — than Zaccharie Risacher, and if he doesn’t go first overall, I would find it hard to believe the Washington Wizards would pass at second overall, free of any positional logjams that Atlanta may have with their frontcourt. Sarr’s returns may not be immediate, but to the team that’s willing to wait they may land with the best player in the class.
Do the Hawks have the patience to wait? I’m not so sure…
That’s my assessment of Sarr, but what do other outlets report when it comes to Sarr, and the leaning of NBA personnel?
In their latest mock draft, ESPN’s Jonathan Givony and Jeremy Woo project Sarr being drafted second overall by the Wizards:
With days to go until the draft, rival teams are viewing Washington as Sarr’s likely destination. Sarr still has not worked out for Atlanta at No. 1, although the Hawks have continued to try to bring him in. He is thought to be comfortable coming off the board one spot later, with the Wizards’ younger roster offering a clearer path to playing time and an opportunity to grow into an expanded role. It’s worth noting that Risacher visited the Wizards over the weekend, meeting team brass and touring the city.
The Wizards have been quiet throughout the pre-draft process. But they had a consistent scouting presence in Perth this season, and they are thought to be keen on Sarr’s long-term upside. His availability here remains contingent on there being no surprises at No. 1, but the widely held belief around the league is that Washington is Sarr’s floor. Amid a full-scale rebuild, Washington has the runway to be patient with Sarr’s development, making it a strong fit for him — and vice versa — on paper.
Sarr arguably has the greatest upside available here, with the physical attributes to be a top defender as well as the makings of a useful offensive skill set as a finisher and improving floor spacer. — Jeremy Woo
Givony ranked Sarr second in his rankings of the top 100 prospects with this to add on Sarr’s strengths and weaknesses:
Strengths: Sarr has a 9-foot-2 standing reach. He has impressive mobility, quickness and explosiveness that gives him rare upside as a rim-protector and switch defender stepping out on the perimeter.
Weaknesses: Sarr showed flashes of potential as a ball handler, passer and jump-shooter, but he is still finding consistency with his toughness and feel for the game to complement his impact as a rim-runner, pick-and-roll finisher and versatile defender.
The verdict: He exceeded expectations in his lone season in the NBL, anchoring Perth’s defense and finding ways to contribute in a smaller role as an 18-year-old. While Sarr still needs to get stronger and continue to evolve offensively, he fits a coveted mold as a power forward/center with the potential to be a difference-maker on both ends of the floor.
Sam Vecenie of The Athletic ranks Sarr top of the class, and while I would love to include all of what Vecenie has written of Sarr, I’ll include his overall summary:
Sarr is the highest-upside player in the 2024 NBA Draft class. He has enormous positional size, even at center. He is an elite defender who impacts games at the rim, midrange and 3-point line with his athletic fluidity. With his strong instincts and fundamentals on that end, he has the potential to be a perennial All-Defense level player if things break right. Offensively, there are serious concerns about the level his game can reach. His jumper needs to continue making strides, and his finishing through contact must keep improving. Ultimately, the key will be Sarr’s strength growth. If he grows into his frame more and becomes more physical, Sarr is the best bet in the class to become a future All-Star.
His skill set is tantalizing; it’s harder than ever to find bigs who can be elite defenders while also thriving as perimeter-oriented offensive players in an NBA that cares more about floor-spacing than ever before. Sarr’s archetype is valuable, as seen by the successes of Chet Holmgren, Victor Wembanyama and even, to a lesser extent, players such as Myles Turner in Indiana. He is not quite at the level of prospect that Wembanyama or Holmgren were, but he’s still an excellent prospect worth investing in. The downside for Sarr is something in the ballpark of Nic Claxton, while his upside is an All-Star caliber big. To me, he offers the best range of outcomes in this down 2024 class.
The last point I think is worth speaking of briefly, I made the Holmgren comparison earlier (unaware Vecenie had wandered down this line of thought), and it is worth pointing out that Sarr is not on the level of Holmgren heading into the season, especially shooting the ball.
Jonathan Wasserman of Bleacher Report in his June 13th mock draft also added Evan Mobley and Jaren Jackson Jr. to that mix, projecting Sarr second overall to the Wizards:
The rise and success of defensive bigs with perimeter skill sets—Evan Mobley, Jaren Jackson Jr., Chet Holmgren, Victor Wembanyama—adds to the allure of Sarr.
He measured well in Chicago, coming in at just under 7’0” in socks, 224 pounds with a 7’4” wingspan. At that size, the ability to slide his feet, handle in the open floor and shoot off the dribble separates him from other centers.
The Wizards will eventually need to find a point guard, but at No. 2, Sarr’s physical talent, evolving skill versatility and defense create visions of upside that could be difficult to resist.
You might be spotting a pattern with which way the intel has been blowing, with Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer also projecting Sarr second overall to Washington:
PLUSES
Athletic finisher who is always looking for opportunities to cut to the rim, including baseline cuts behind daydreaming defenders. If he needs to cut into a post-up, he can seal off his defender then patiently use shoulder and ball fakes to carve out space for layups and hook shots.
Fluidly handles the ball like a wing. He’s at his best catching the ball behind the 3-point line then attacking off the bounce. He loves to drive then spin into his right hand.
Skilled passer who can make “wow” deliveries off the dribble. Though he needs to cut down on forcing the ball, his will to pass is overall a positive quality. He could thrive out of short rolls and as a connective piece in the half-court, as he does for Perth coming off motion plays that slingshot him toward the basket.
He’s so mobile that he’ll be at his best in a switch-heavy scheme. As a defender in space, he’s very good at closing out to contest shooters or flying in to help with his length at the basket.
Brings a consistently high level of effort and hustle as a rebounder and defender.
MINUSES
He shoots a lot of jumpers, but he doesn’t make many of them. This year with Perth, he’s shooting just 29.5 percent from 3 and 61 percent from the line, which is about what he averaged at Overtime Elite the year before, too. He doesn’t have much touch away from the basket either, so shooting efficiently from 3 may just not be in the cards.
Off-hand finishing needs to come a long way. There are layups when he will leap off his left foot, then contour his body to use his right hand when a lefty layup would’ve been uncontestable.
Needs to progress as a decision maker. He travels too often when attacking closeouts and needs to clean up his footwork.
And this would have to be intel based, because in O’Connor’s Big Board, Sarr ranks seventh, BELOW Tidjane Salaun, which I personally can’t quite comprehend but alas, that is merely differing opinions…
To finish, I want to bring up an interview Sarr did with The Athletic’s Shams Sharania, in which Sarr spoke of which players inspired him, and you can get a sense of the type of player Sarr envisions himself as in the future.
“Growing up, I used to watch a lot of Kevin Durant and Giannis,” said Sarr. “Tall guys who do pretty much everything on the court and not let themselves be put in a box.”
It may be difficult to see a ceiling like that for Sarr, those are two Hall of Fame players, but you look at his skillset and what he can already do, and with the right work ethic and attitude…is it totally unrealistic that Sarr could reach an extremely high level of play? I think he can develop a jump shot, I think he can fill out his frame, and I think he can do more with the ball in his hands and operate off the dribble.
Sarr has arguably the most upside in this draft class, and if you’re looking for a potential star out of this much maligned draft class, Alex Sarr may be your best bet. It’s perhaps not as sure bet on draft night like Luka Doncic, a Zion Williamson, or a Victor Wembanyama, but Sarr has unquestionable upside and will need to be drafted into the right situation for it to be realized.
The intel all seems to suggest that the Hawks are leaning elsewhere. Whether they can try to convince Washington to trade up a spot for the surefire certainty that they land Sarr will be another thing, but everything seems to suggest that Sarr will be passed on by Atlanta.
Like we discussed in the Risacher piece (and at the beginning of this one), they’re in an unconventional spot when it comes to this pick, and that was before the Hawks jumped to number one, already at an organizational crossroads with the blockbuster Dejounte Murray trade/pairing with Trae Young falling flat on its face.
If you want to try again and win now and take someone who has a safer floor and slots immediately on the wing — and you want the safe pick — you’d take Risacher. If you want to bank on upside and hope you have another star to partner with Young/Murray, and someone who can anchor your defense longterm and block shots, then Sarr is probably where you’d want to lean.
The 2024 NBA Draft is almost here, what will the Atlanta Hawks choose to do?
We shall soon see…