A 3-and-D prospect, Ajinca is looking to make the NBA’s top-60 come draft day.
The theme of ‘family’ is one that plays an underlying factor in the 2024 NBA Draft, with LeBron James Jr. being a point of conversation and debate throughout the build-up to the NBA Draft. Bronny James isn’t the only son of an NBA player who is coming through the ranks in high school/college basketball, with the likes of Kiyan Anthony (son of Carmelo Anthony) and Cameron Boozer (son of Carlos Boozer) — to name a few — that will follow in in a couple of years or perhaps sooner behind James.
Today’s prospect also carries an NBA family background, and while he may not quite carry the same allure of basketball lineage as the likes of LeBron James or Carmelo Anthony, today we’re looking Melvin Ajinca, cousin of former NBA big man, who you may remember, Alexis Ajinca — who spent seven seasons in the NBA, four of those with the New Orleans Pelicans (was that entire segue a stretch? …100%).
Melvin Ajinca is a 19-year-old (turning 20 on draft day) wing from France, standing at 6-foot-8 inches tall. He plied his trade in the France’s top division with Saint-Quentin, where he averaged 10.2 points per game on 39.9% shooting from the field on 8.2 attempts, 35% from three on 5.6 attempts, 81% from the free throw line on two attempts, 3.4 rebounds and 0.7 assists in 24.8 minutes per game in 35 games played, per RealGM.
Those numbers won’t jump off the page at you, in particular the field goal percentage — where there’s something to be desired in terms of overall field goal percentage. But what you can also gloss from those numbers is the type of player that Ajinca is shaping into: he’s essentially the a 3-and-D player, or at least that’s the hope when it comes to projecting Ajinca as an NBA prospect.
68% of all of Ajinca’s shots came from three, so it’s clear where his bread and butter is spread, and 35% from three isn’t too bad. Sadly, there’s not a lot else in the boxscore that Ajinca adds. Sure, he can mix it up on the glass at times but you’d like to see a bit more/any playmaking potential, and I’m willing to give him a pass for a lack of steals given the fact Saint-Quentin play a zone defense that sees Ajinca helping or in front of the rim an awful lot as opposed to getting into the passing lanes. That said, he blocked two shots all season, which really isn’t ideal when he’s in front of the rim as much as he is at times.
Anyways, let’s dig into some of the (sadly, limited) film and get a look at Ajinca in action. If this is your first experience this time of year to one of these, in essence we’ll go through offense/scoring, playmaking (if applicable), and defense, before we look at what draft experts from other outlets report about a prospect. This is just my opinion, so take all of this with a grain if salt if need be.
Offense
As mentioned before, three-point shooting is the name of the game here with Ajinca, 68% of all shots Ajinca attempts from three. These can come in varying degrees of difficulty but let’s look at some catch-and-shoot makes from Ajinca.
In transition, Ajinca fills the lane on the wing, receives the ball and hits the open three:
This next play also showcases one aspect of offense that Ajinca is pretty solid at, which is his activity off the ball at times especially with his screen-setting off the ball. He sets one such screen on this play before curling around, receiving the ball and rising to hit the three-pointer:
Off the ball in the corner, when Ajinca receives the ball he quickly sorts his feet out to get behind the three-point line and rises to hit the three over the defender:
Ajinca can hit some threes off the dribble/on the move, such as this three where Ajinca relocates above the break, receives the ball, dribbles to his right and drains the three:
Here, Ajinca comes to the ball and is faced by the defender on the switch. On the subsequent ball screen the defense attempts to blitz the screen and upon the retreat the on-ball defender doesn’t step back up to Ajinca quick enough, and Ajinca steps into the pull-up three and drains it:
Let’s take a look at a few of Ajinca’s misses from three, just for the sake of comparison.
In a fastbreak situation, Ajinca receives the ball on the move and springs into a three-pointer but misses:
On this play, Ajinca is found in the weakside corner where he does a nice job faking his man to free up space but cannot convert the opportunity:
Coming off a curl and with the aid of a good screen, Ajinca gets a good opportunity at a three but, again, can’t connect:
Let’s take a brief look at some of Ajinca’s plays inside the arc. Again, these aren’t too plentiful and have varying degrees of success but Ajinca did shoot 49% from inside the arc, 45-of-92 in total, per RealGM.
Off an opponent miss, Ajinca streaks ahead of the ball in transition, receives the outlet and does well to adjust and finish at the rim:
Taking the ball up the floor for a change, Ajinca is afforded space to drive into, and he does so, gliding into the paint and finishing with his preferred left hand:
Again, Ajinca shows his activity and finds a spot to receive the ball, drives to the rim, whips out a nice step move to draw the foul and free throws at the rim:
Here, a taste of a mid-range jumper from Ajinca as he comes off the screen, gets to the lane, stops, pulls up and hits the jumper:
Of course, it doesn’t always go to plan for Ajinca on the move, as he loses the ball on the way up on the drive, resulting in a turnover:
Defense
You’d be forgiven for thinking that given his size, frame, and decent lateral speed that Ajinca would be a plus defender in France, but from the footage I saw of him I didn’t find that to be the case. I saw a defender who was, more often than not, beaten off the dribble consistently.
To start, Ajinca misjudges the situation in transition and allows the blow-by in transition which leads to a basket:
Next, Ajinca is again beaten on a drive but does enough to put some pressure at the rim and the shot is missed:
On the wing, Ajinca is gotten the better of and were it not for his teammate rotating it would have resulted in a basket at the rim:
In transition, Ajinca again misreads the situation before him and allows the ball-handler to split the defense, but Ajinca is the one responsible for allowing the gap to be breached. He commits the foul on the way and the basket is made for the ‘and-1’ play:
Ajinca was promptly yanked from the game after this blame, suggesting that the blame lay at his door there.
That said, Ajinca has his good defensive moments.
On this possession, I thought Ajinca moved his feet well against the quicker guard but just couldn’t contain the pace:
This play also highlights a point I mentioned earlier that within this Saint-Quentin defense Ajinca is located often in front of the rim and then slides over to the wing if need be/if the defense shifts.
Here’s another example of this occurring, as Ajinca slots over to anchor the middle of the paint and is on hand to rotate and get in the air and force the pass to the corner:
A similar scenario on this next play, but this time Ajinca cannot prevent the basket:
Whether Ajinca was a little late to react or whether this was just good offense, or both, situations like this make it all the more disappointing when it comes to Ajinca’s block numbers, because with him being planted in front of the rim at times like this he should have more than two blocks to his name on the entire season.
Ajinca moves his feet well to put him in good positions, such as this possession where he’s able to rotate to the help and force the pass and then get back to his man and stay in front, but gets caught out and his man gets an uncontested shot up:
Again, a good defensive job here by Ajinca moving his feet and a good contest, even if slightly mistimed as he goes perhaps a tad early leaving his feet. But he gets away with it and a good contest:
In closing…
Melvin Ajinca is, at the core, a 3-and-D prospect. Right now, his offensive game is limited and three-point shooting is where the primary bulk of his offense comes from. This outside shooting is average right now but allows for some potential for improvement. Being able to put the ball on the floor and become a greater threat attacking the rim would open his three-point game to a greater degree, and there is evidence that occurs on some level already, attempting two free throws per contest.
Ajinca is active off the ball, always on the move and looking to set screens off the ball to open opportunities up — you certainly couldn’t say he stands around on offense. However, despite his 6-foot-8 inch frame, Ajinca doesn’t display above the rim-type athleticism, which can limit his ability to put pressure on the rim — but there is some potential there. Overall, Ajinca’s offensive package is limited — it’s clear what direction his offensive game is projecting: a small forward/power forward type player who looms on the perimeter.
Defensively, there is potential for Ajinca. He moves his feet well, but despite this quality is beaten off the dribble more times than he should be. He doesn’t always appear to be engaged or reading the situation or reacts a little too late, whether it’s in transition or in rotation situations. However, the defensive scheme of Saint-Quentin didn’t really give him a great chance to succeed defensively as a wing defender or to jump passing lanes with that 3-2 zone defense, but it was here — a chance to challenge shots at the rim with what height and athleticism that Ajinca possesses — where Ajinca really fell short.
In closing, Ajinca’s defensive potential I think is ‘to be decided’ — it would be good to see Ajinca in a ‘normal’ defensive setup, whether that’s man-to-man or even a 2-3 zone where I think Ajinca’s lateral speed would be better utilized on the wings as opposed to in front of the rim.
Ajinca would be the type of player I think NBA teams would find easier to mold and develop to the NBA, so for this reason he may end up being drafted higher than his skillset may suggest he should be (which I think would normally land in the 40’s/50’s). And with the endless search for size wing shooters, some teams may feel prompted to jump the gun.
That’s my assessment of Melvin Ajinca, but what do others who are far better than I am think? If you’re new here, this is where we look at other draft outlets and examine their assessments. For transparency, I look at these reports as the last part of this process, and after everything prior to this paragraph is written so my own initial thoughts aren’t swayed or diluted. They also help fill any gaps I may have missed along the way (which is usually likely!).
Sam Vecenie of The Athletic mocks Ajinca at 38th overall in his latest mock draft, while Jonathan Givony of ESPN ranks Ajinca 46th on ESPN’s Best Available.
Jonathan Wasserman of Bleacher Report, meanwhile, projects Ajinca at 47th overall but also had this to add of the French prospect:
Melvin Ajinça missed the NBA combine for the LNB Pro A playoffs. But he’s coming off one his better games, a 14-point, 12-rebound effort with four threes against ASVEL. Ajinça’s shotmaking has been a draw since FIBA over the summer. Teams will be trying to decide if he’s a sharp-enough shooter to compensate for his lack of creation and quickness.
I would agree with Wasserman’s assessment of Ajinca’s lack of creation right now. We saw that he could, at times, make a few opportunities for himself but Ajinca isn’t quite ready at the moment to be creating with the ball in his hands in high volumes — or with consistency.
Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer has mocked Ajinca as high as 33rd overall to the San Antonio Spurs with this to say of Ajinca:
The Spurs have to come away with at least one Frenchman in this draft class, right? Ajinca’s 3-and-D style would be a great fit with Victor Wembanyama.
PLUSES
Knockdown spot-up 3-point shooter with a great feel for relocating. Can fire against heavy contests or pump-fake into a side-dribble 3.
Flashes isolation scoring potential with stepback 3s and pull-up midrange jumpers. He isn’t an amazing ball handler, but he’s capable enough to make a play off the bounce, giving him more upside than stationary specialists.
Good at-rim finisher off straight-line drives, transition attacks, and cuts. He can use either hand to score. He tends to make the right decisions off the dribble, showing a willingness to make a simple play rather than force things himself.
Hard-nosed defender who displays versatility, off-ball awareness, and a willingness to crash the glass.
MINUSES
Not a dynamic off-ball player who has shown the capability to drain 3s off screens and handoffs.
Lacks high-level experience running pick-and-rolls and serving as a playmaker.
I generally agree with most of what O’Connor has described when it comes to Ajinca, particularly the fact that he isn’t an amazing ball-handler but can make some plays ‘off the bounce.’ The off-ball awareness O’Connor references was especially evident in that zone defense, Ajinca knew when to shade over in front of the rim and when to cover the corners, even if it wasn’t always effective.
Something that most of the experts have noted that I did not is that Ajinca would slot into a SG/SF role, as opposed to the SF/PF spot that he played often in France. His size I think gives NBA teams an option to open up this versatility in positioning for Ajinca, but I honestly don’t think Ajinca is ready to play any SG. I don’t think he’s got the skillset in terms of ball-handling that would be required for a backcourt player, but perhaps with time this can be the case, but it would require an awful lot of work. Ajinca has a lot to be desired in terms of working on his ball-handling and playmaking abilities.
The Hawks, at the moment, have no second round selections, but with the number one pick being landed in the Draft Lottery, it’s safe to say any trade possibility is on the table. While the Hawks may not be selecting into the second round now, it’s possible this may change.
Ajinca would fit as a potential option for the Hawks if they find themselves selecting in the second round, as potentially stashing a draft selection may be in their financial interest.
Time will tell what the Hawks elect to do, but for Melvin Ajinca the consensus leaning suggests he’s being selected in the second round — but how far will he fall?