An injury-disrupted season for Topic but a top prospect nevertheless.
When it comes to international draft prospects, no NBA Draft is ever complete without some sort of appearance from a prospect wearing pink from one of the iconic teams in European basketball. The absence of a team name in that last sentence wasn’t an oversight as the team, for sponsorship reasons, has had many different names this century. Any one of these names you may recognize at some stage over the years: Mega Leks, Mega Basket, Mega Bemax, Mega Soccerbet, Mega Mozzart, and now its current iteration of Mega MIS of Serbia and the Adriatic League.
Mega Basket have provided plenty of talent over the years to the NBA Draft, including Miami’s Nikola Jovic, former Bulls selection Marko Simonovic, Goga Bitazde, Los Angeles Clippers center Ivica Zubac, former Hawk Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot and of course Denver Nuggets MVP Nikola Jokic. Atlanta fans may also remember center Alpha Kaba who was selected with the 60th selection in 2017.
Of the 15 Mega Basket prospects that have been drafted since 2007 (14 since 2014), only three of them have been taken in the first round of the draft, the highest being Bitazde at 18th overall in 2019. This, however, is likely to change dramatically on June 26th when 18-year-old point guard Nikola Topic is likely to hear his name called potentially very early in the 2024 NBA Draft.
…That, however, is twisting the truth slightly.
Topic was only on loan to Mega Basket from KK Crvena Zvezda — known also as Red Star Belgrade — to start the season, and he was posting big numbers before his loan was prematurely ended around Christmas and was called up to the Euroleague-competing Red Star.
At the time, Topic told ESPN, “My dream for many years has been to play for Red Star. I grew up a fan of this club. It will mean everything for me to play in front of 20,000 Red Star fans. I couldn’t say no to playing basketball in the EuroLeague.
“It’s a huge risk, but I’m ready. I’m confident in myself 100%. My father, my agent Misko Raznatovic, and I understand that this move could affect my draft chances if I don’t do well. But I’m ready to compete and fight.”
Sadly, however, not long after this move, Topic suffered a left-knee injury and missed the next four months of action to showcase his talent within a Euroleague team, returning to play briefly in May and played just seven games for Red Star in total in an injury-shortened 23 games across all teams and all competitions. Topic re-injured this knee, and it was recently revealed that he has a partial ACL tear.
Between moving clubs and then his injury, Topic’s season is basically split in two: his big numbers and starring role at Mega Basket and his lesser role at Red Star/returning from injury.
Across all competitions and teams, Topic averaged 14.4 points per game on 49.8% shooting from the field on 10.5 attempts, 30% from three on 3.7 attempts, 87.8% from the free throw line on 3.2 attempts, 5.5 assists, 3.2 rebounds, 0.9 steals, 2.3 turnovers and three personal fouls in 27 minutes of action in 23 games played, per RealGM.
Here’s how that differs to his stint at Mega Basket:
Interestingly, the difference in usage between Topic with Mega Basket versus Red Star in the ABA was less than 4% (24.15% to 20.6%).
For the purpose of this scouting report, most of the footage we’ll look at will feature Topic at Mega Basket. It is a great shame he wasn’t able to showcase himself more with Red Star and get to go against the top talent in the Euroleague, but Topic’s draft stock was, essentially, built on his work with Mega Basket, so that’ll be mostly why we look at footage from his stint there.
With all of that, let’s take a look at what Topic showed this season.
Offense/scoring
Topic averaged 14 points per game on just under 50% shooting from the field and 30% from three-point range. To shoot just under 50% from the field despite shooting 30% from three on over 3.7 three-point attempts per game means that Topic was very efficient from inside the arc. Take away his three-point shooting, Topic shot 60% from the field, or simply put shot 60% from inside the arc.
It would be as good as place as any to begin when it comes to Topic’s offense; he is excellent at getting to the rim and finishing at the rim.
Topic has an excellent turn of speed about him, and he measures this pace excellently at his age.
On this out-of-bounds play, uses the screen and drives to his left — demonstrating his comfort with dribbling with his off-hand — and turbos inside, brings the ball up to avoid the dig, and finishes at the rim with his left hand:
On this possession, Topic finds a matchup he fancies, takes his time before driving and finishes with the reverse layup:
Topic uses the screen to drive inside and again uses his left hand to finish the play:
Topic is good at taking advantage of the defense not getting sorted quick enough on screens, as Topic gets on the move the defense is already sunk out front. Once inside, Topic evades the shot-blocker and goes to his left hand to finish the play:
Topic is good at reading the road ahead of him before making his decisions. The screen here he sees is creates enough of a margin for Topic to drive into, and he evades the help defense again to score at the rim:
Topic is very good at utilizing the space open to him, as he drives inside after the screen and does well to hang before finishing at the rim:
What I really like about that play is that was the first possession in his first game with Red Star; no fear, no reservation surrounding his new teammates, just straight in.
This next clip cuts late to the play, but Topic receives a screen, whips out a beautiful handle and then bursts to the rim, taking the contact — no call — and finishing at the rim:
Topic excels in attacking switches in pick-and-roll situations.
On the switch here, Topic sizes his man up before shifting gears after freeing up space for himself with the crossover and finishes at the rim, evading the block:
On another switch, Topic gets the step on his man and drives inside, evading the block and using the glass to finish at the rim:
Not the greatest of help defense, admittedly, but alas…
Topic is dangerous once he gets a head of steam, and in three-quarter/full court/transition situations, or coming off a screen getting downhill, Topic is a threat.
Just before halfcourt, Topic turns the jets on after the screen and he beats the defense to the rim, finishing with his left hand:
Coming from his own half, Topic uses the high screen to accelerate inside, moves the defender with the drive and hangs to hit the runner at the rim:
Topic begins this next possession off the ball in transition off of a miss, receives the ball, and turbos to the rim before anyone can catch him:
Off of a reach from his defender in Topic’s own half, the young Serbian jets away, gets into the paint and is able to get the shot up before it can be blocked and scores at the rim:
On a saved possession, Topic gathers the ball, and once he evades the first defender at midcourt, he takes off and whips out a beautiful step move to get between two defenders and then evades a third defender near the rim to score at the rim with the layup:
Topic also helps bolster his scoring tally by getting to the free throw line over three times per contest, most of these coming from being fouled on drives/attempts at the rim.
On the drive, Topic gets into the crowd and draws the foul and free throws:
On the switch this time, Topic takes his time before driving inside and he draws the foul and free throws on the bump as he rises to the rim:
Here, a nice spin move from Topic and draws the foul as he makes the upward motion, earning two free throws:
In an open court scenario, Topic gets inside the paint on the drive, draws another foul on his way up to the rim and gets to the line for two more free throws:
This next foul Topic draws is earned due to his team being in the bonus, but I enjoyed the savvy move to get it, as Topic wanders into the path of the opposition and takes the contact from behind:
An NBA-type move this, one we’ve seen Trae Young do often with the Atlanta Hawks.
Moving onto Topic’s three-point shooting, it’s not the most efficient shot at the moment — 30% on 3.7 attempts — but let’s take a look at some of these makes from Topic.
To start, Topic uses the space afforded by the screen to pull up into the three:
On the pick-and-roll switch, Topic sets up the opportunity and while the drive is expected. Topic pulls up for three:
This is a good example of Topic’s driving prowess opening up avenues for him to shoot from distance.
When he has a matchup he fancies, Topic isn’t shy about pulling up from distance, connecting on this three:
Topic initially sees a little more attention on the ball, and when he gets off the ball he promptly has it returned to him — and he pulls up for three:
This time Topic gets off the ball and locates to the wing, and when he receives the ball, he rises to connect on the three:
I think the one knock I’d have on Topic’s offense is obviously the three-point shooting — first and foremost — but I’d love to see Topic develop a better touch on his floater/runner. I think it’s the one aspect of his offense inside the arc that’s missing:
Passing/playmaking
Topic is enjoyable to watch not just for his scoring ability but for his ability and willingness to spot and make passes/plays to his teammates, averaging 5.5 assists per game.
Topic does a great job of creating opportunities off of his drives to find his teammates for opportunities.
Using the screen, Topic drives inside and whips a pass to the weakside corner with his left hand for the three-point attempt:
Coming off another screen, Topic gets inside and finds his teammate for an assist for three on the short pass:
On an out-of-bounds play, Topic gives-and-gets the ball back and immediately goes on the attack to drive, and he kicks out to the perimeter and the extra pass opens up the opportunity for three:
Again, another beautiful find from Topic on the drive to the perimeter where another opportunity is created:
Let’s look at a couple of Topic’s playmaking in pick-and-roll scenarios very quickly.
Here, Topic squeezes the bounce pass through in the pick-and-roll for the assist:
Topic gets the pass over the top on this screen-and-roll for another assist:
On this play, Topic is doubled on the screen but is able to find his teammate over the top and he draws the foul and free throws:
Topic is good at getting off the ball when doubled and he’s able to find his teammates, this time for three:
This time, Topic is doubled and finds his teammate in the weakside corner:
This next section of Topic’s assists/playmaking doesn’t fall under any one category, and more so plays that are just fun to watch and demonstrate his passing potential and vision.
Against the zone defense, Topic waits patiently for the opportunity to unfold in front of him, and he flings a beautiful left-handed pass for the assist:
In transition, Topic has his head up, scanning and surveying his options and he finds his teammate for a three-point attempt:
On this possession Topic shows how easy it is for him to find and spot passes, he’s barely looking at the play but finds his teammate over the top:
Defense
Defensively, it was a little frustrating to watch Topic because Mega Basket did anything they could to hide Topic and always ensured there was an additional body nearby should there be any issues for Topic defensively.
Here’s an example; no matter what in this situation there are defenders surrounding Topic, so that even if there’s half a turn of Topic being beaten it immediately has to be bailed on as there’s another body present:
In the corner here, when Topic’s man gets the turn on him, there’s immediately bodies present and the pass has to be made:
Again, Topic gets on the wrong side. but he has a teammate there to rotate and help make life difficult. But Topic himself was on the wrong side:
Topic finds himself prone to fouls and committed over three per contest.
On the blow-by, Topic commits the foul:
Just past midcourt, Topic bumps his man out front and commits another foul:
Rushing out to contest the three-point shot, Topic commits the foul on the shot, leading to three free throws:
On the rebound, Topic tries to reach in but commits a foul instead:
After a shot goes up, Topic needlessly bumps into the man underneath the rim for the foul:
All of these types of fouls add up, and Topic has to be more disciplined and he has to be better on the defensive end. Playing within the zone hid his weaknesses, and playing man-to-man may be a recipe for disaster in the NBA.
In closing…
Nikola Topic is an exciting young prospect, especially on the offensive end. At 18 years old (19 in August) he possesses a talent for not only getting inside the lane but also evading the defense and finishing at the rim with both hands — demonstrating a level of comfort using his off hand, which at this stage isn’t common. Topic has a great turn of pace, and he knows how to use it, shifting through the gears and lulling defenses with this change of pace. He excels getting to and finishing at the rim; he’s very efficient inside the arc. And on occasions where he can’t finish, Topic can get himself to the free throw line often, and he’s an efficient pair of hands there too.
If there were any concerns of Topic’s extremely efficient work inside the arc, it’d be that he’s not quite got the floater/runner nailed down yet. And I’d like to see him take a few more jumpers off the dribble in the mid-range coming off of pick-and-roll, especially given defenses respect his ability to drive the ball. Another concern would be the quality of opponents Topic went against may allow him opportunities and driving lanes that NBA defenses will not. For this reason, it was a great shame that Topic’s injuries prevented him from player more in the Euroleague to test himself against opposition of a much higher quality, as was his hope and desire when he was recalled to Red Star.
Topic’s three-point shot isn’t quite there yet either, but he certainly wasn’t shy in getting his attempts up and this should improve over time; certainly not the worst foundation to build on.
When it comes to playmaking, Topic is an unselfish player who is constantly aware of his surroundings. He can not only spot a pass but pick it out too; he has this in his locker. Topic is at his best when he’s on the move, driving the ball and kicking it out to the perimeter. In addition, he’s good at getting off of doubles and is able to make passes off of screens/in pick-and-roll. His size at 6-foot-6 helps him make some passes over the top of defenses.
He just has a really good feel for the game and a high basketball IQ.
Defensively, there are concerns to be had. I worry about Topic’s defensive ability in a man-to-man defensive setup. Mega Basket’s zone did very well to hide him but even if couldn’t save Topic from being a very foul prone player — he has to be more disciplined on defense and learn better defensive principles. I wouldn’t exactly say Topic has defensive instincts, nor the wingspan (measured at 6 feet and 5 inches at the Draft Combine) to act on those instincts.
But the main concern right now is health; a partially torn ACL is a tough manner in which to enter the draft. But Topic is young and he will recover from this injury, and it may be beneficial for a team in a rebuilding phase to select Topic and allow him to take his time rehabbing and aim for another high selection for the more acclaimed 2025 NBA Draft.
That’s my assessment of Nikola Topic, but what do other outlets think/report when it comes to Topic ahead of the 2024 NBA Draft?
Sam Vecenie mocks Topic 8th overall to the San Antonio Spurs, with this to add:
In 13 Adriatic League games for Mega Basket before his transfer to Crvena zvezda, Topić averaged 18.6 points and 6.9 assists while shooting 52.4 percent from the field. He’s a dynamic ball-screen distributor and consistently lives in the paint in the Adriatic League, which consists of the top teams from the six countries that once made up Yugoslavia. He can execute nearly every pass in the book once he gets a downhill advantage, and hits teammates with flair and creativity. Topić also scores proficiently at the rim, using inventive touch to finish high off the glass and around rim protectors.
However, Topić has suffered two recent sprained knee injuries, causing him to miss most of the 2024 calendar year to this point. His range is wider than expected right now, with a chance he could slip down the board even farther than this.
Topic is attending the June 4-7 pre-draft camp in Treviso, Italy, for prospects excused from the now-mandatory NBA Draft Combine because their overseas seasons had not finished. The medical report teams get from that setting will be vital in determining Topić’s ultimate range. Teams are also trying to wrap their head around basing a lottery grade of him off a 13-game sample.
Vecenie brings up a decent point — ultimately, it is a smaller sample size we’re dealing with when it comes to Topic, and even smaller with Red Star.
ESPN’s Jonathan Givony and Jeremy Woo both believe that Topic would be an ideal selection 12th overall to the Oklahoma City Thunder, fitting a particular role with the pick:
Givony’s pick that fills the biggest need: Nikola Topic | Red Star (Serbia) | PG | Age: 18.8
With a roster flush with talent at every position, it might make sense for the Thunder to consider drafting Topic, who was widely considered a top-5 prospect prior to suffering a knee injury. Oklahoma City can afford to redshirt Topic next season, extend Josh Giddey at a palatable number and then slide a healthy Topic (the two share plenty of similarities) into Giddey’s place if they eventually need to move the Australian due to luxury tax concerns.
Woo’s pick that gets the best value: Topic
Not only does Topic suit the Thunder’s needs well, but he’s a solid value for any team if he falls outside the top 10. Even if his partially torn ACL causes him to miss some or all of next season, drafting him now is a long-term value play. There were scouts who viewed him as a top-pick contender early in the season, and particularly if he does wind up sliding like this on draft night, Topic will be an interesting pro career to track in the years to come.
Prior to the confirmation of the ACL injury, there were still concerns from NBA teams about Topic’s health, and this may cause him to slide on draft night. In their May 31st mock, Woo projected Topic to be selected 10th overall:
Teams are awaiting Topic’s forthcoming medical information, and he will participate in his required portion of the pre-draft process next week in Treviso. He sustained multiple knee injuries this season, returning in April before injuring himself again a few weeks later, and his health status looks likely to impact his place in the lottery hierarchy.
Teams drafting in the top 15 will receive his medicals, in accordance with the NBA’s new collective bargaining rules. Utah is among the interested parties in Topic, with Dalton Knecht, Ron Holland and Ja’Kobe Walter among other prospects who are getting looks from the Jazz at No. 10. Topic’s size, basketball IQ and playmaking skills make him an intriguing long-term player and a potential value pick should he end up in the back part of the lottery. — Woo
Jonathan Wasserman of Bleacher Report mocks Topic at 15th overall, sliding from 11th in his previous mock as health continues to be a topic (pun intended) of contention among NBA teams:
Teams were informed of Nikola Topić’s torn ACL at the NBA’s combine in Treviso, held for those who missed out on Chicago. The diagnosis obviously won’t help teams that were previously on the fence.
Teams are still waiting for U.S. doctors to examine Topić’s knee. Some have speculated that he may need surgery. The question is whether that will impact how front offices value the 6’6” point guard.
As long as they don’t throw red flags at results that hint at long-term vulnerability, a lottery team may be willing to wait for a big playmaker who’s had success creating for teammates and attacking in pro leagues overseas.
The Heat I think would be an ideal place for Topic not just for development, but Miami play a lot of zone defense, and it’s a better system for Topic to hide defensively.
Elsewhere, Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer also projects Topic at eighth overall to San Antonio, with his assessment, more often not, lines up nicely with many of the things we’ve already looked at, and then a little more.
Sensational scorer in the paint with a deep bag of touch finishes at the rim using either hand from unusual angles.
Slippery driver who uses subtle pace changes, head fakes, and clean footwork to get into the teeth of the defense. If he needs to put his shoulder into bigger opponents to draw contact, he can do that too.
Compounds his at-rim scoring with tasty interior playmaking skills. He loves to absorb contact then make wraparound passes to cutters, or kickouts to shooters from behind the arc.
Quick decision-maker as a playmaker. He often receives the ball then instantly makes a pass to an open man, or in pick-and-rolls he’ll toss overhanded hook dimes using either hand to cutters.
A solid bet to figure it out as a shooter considering his soft touch near the rim and his elite free throw percentage.
MINUSES
Stiff jump shooter. Defenders often sag off him to give him space to launch when he’s spotting up or isolating. He’s reluctant to shoot unless he is open, in part due to his low release.
A bit of an upright ball handler. Though he’s shifty and changes pace, he’s largely a downhill player who hasn’t shown much of a midrange game with floaters or pull-ups.
Inconsistent defender with intensity that comes and goes. With a lean frame, he may never be more than average, even if his effort improves. But he must improve enough to not be a liability.
All of the above we’ve mostly discussed but O’Connor’s defensive assessment may be a bit damning, suggesting that Topic may never be more than average, and I think there’s a real fear of this. Is the rest enough to forgive those defensive shortcomings?
The Atlanta Hawks are poised to select first overall, and even in a trade down situation, it’s likely Topic doesn’t make sense for them. I like the Hawks going for a backup-type of point guard (something the Hawks will likely need if one of Trae Young or Dejounte Murray are being moved) with upside in a few years, but I think the timelines are probably a hair off.
In any case, whichever team that selects Nikola Topic in the first round is likely to get themselves a steal, given that he’s likely to slide down the draft perhaps towards the fringes of the lottery itself.
Defensively, there are concerns, but offensiely there is a lot to like when it comes to Nikola Topic.