The schedule is among us! Let’s delve into it!
The NBA summer is a long night that seemingly takes forever to break into day, and while the Olympics served to dish up some competitive basketball to enjoy, the countdown to the 2024-25 season continues to tick slowly along.
However, with the release of the NBA schedule, you can begin to visualize the path forward for your respective teams as they strive towards their respective goals, whether it’s a title push, playoff contention, showing signs of life in a rebuild…or heading straight for another year in the doldrums and hoping you don’t lose 28 straight games (cough, Detroit, cough).
For the Atlanta Hawks, they’re in a win-now mode and are aiming to break back into the automatic playoff spots. They’ve made a big move over the summer in moving on from Dejounte Murray and drafting Zaccharie Risacher with the first overall pick, and it will be interesting to see if these additions/subtractions can help propel the Hawks back to playoffs.
With the schedule now released, the Hawks can begin to plan ahead and identify where the good and the bad of their schedule lies, and that’s what we’ll be doing today as well! If you’re new to these schedule dives, we lay out each month and outline it, discussing key games along the way.
Without further ado, let’s begin, starting with the dawn of the new season in October:
Total games: 5
Home games: 3
Road games: 2
Back-to-backs: 1
Longest road trip: 1 game
Longest homestand: 2 games
Average projected opponent win total (based on Caesar’s win totals): 29.5 wins
This, it must be said, is a generous start for the Atlanta Hawks. The Nets, Hornets and Wizards should be teams the Hawks handle, and many will expect they will handle with ease — which I tend to agree with; that should be the expectation. I think some will look at that Oklahoma City Thunder game as one to measure the Hawks, and I don’t think that’s entirely fair. The Thunder are championship contenders, and while I think it would reflect well for the Hawks to notch a win over them, how they handle their business against the ‘lesser’ teams that they should be expected to beat will be the better measure of comparison here in October.
For reference, the win total projected for Atlanta is 35.5.
Moving onto November:
Total games: 16
Home games: 8
Road games: 8
Back-to-backs: 4
Longest road trip: 4 games
Longest homestand: 2 games
Average projected opponent win total (based on Caesar’s win totals): 41 wins
November, as always, is very much when reality can hit like a smack in the mouth, and it does so to the Hawks with 16 games evenly split between road and home games — although with a four game road trip midway through the month — and four back-to-backs.
The strong opponents are very much in play with two games against the Boston Celtics, two against the Cleveland Cavaliers in a home-and-home and games such as the Mavericks and a reunion with Dejounte Murray in New Orleans. The weaker opponents include teams like the Pistons and Hornets, and two fixtures against the Chicago Bulls will be an interesting measure as the Hawks and Bulls have basically been kings of the Eastern Conference Play-In since its inception.
Speaking of competitions, the NBA Cup, or in-season tournament, also begins in earnest in November too, presenting a couple of winnable games in the mix: a difficult game in Boston, and a home contest against the Cleveland Cavaliers, who will show as a good point of reference as the Hawks aim to be a playoff team where the Cavaliers are likely to figure.
Moving on to December:
Total games: TBC, provisionally 10
Home games: Provisionally, 7
Road games: Provisionally, 3
Back-to-backs: 1
Longest road trip: 1 game
Longest homestand: 4 games
Average projected opponent win total (based on Caesar’s win totals): 43 wins
December is a month where the schedule isn’t quite fully set, pending the results of November’s NBA Cup fixtures, so the gap between the Nuggets game on December 8th and the San Antonio Spurs on December 19th for now is set aside by the NBA where two games should eventually fill.
On the surface, December sees the Hawks welcome back Dejounte Murray to Atlanta to begin the final month of 2024. The reception for Murray should be fairly warm, I don’t think there’s any animosity between the fanbase and Murray, but I think you can be certain Murray will want a big night on his return.
The Hawks have a number of home games in December, but many of them come against strong opponents, such as the Nuggets, the Wolves, the aforementioned Pelicans, Heat, Lakers and Grizzlies in the mix too. Milwaukee on the road always represents a difficult fixture, and finishing 2024 in Toronto could also be a little tricky.
In short, the Hawks face a lot of good and fun teams in December, and if they can win three or four of their home games in December against some of those teams I think the Hawks should be pleased with that.
Moving into 2025:
Total games: 15 games
Home games: 5 games
Road games: 10 games
Back-to-backs: 3
Longest road trip: 5 games
Longest homestand: 3 games
Average projected opponent win total (based on Caesar’s win totals): 42 wins
2025 does not kindly for the Atlanta Hawks — 10 road games, including five games on the road for the Hawks’ (later than usual) Western Conference road trip. Also, it’s part of an overall six game road trip that starts in Toronto to finish 2024. Even the one game that looks a bit more winnable, the Utah Jazz, isn’t a guarantee by any means as it’s proven a difficult fixture prior.
Even at the end of that Western Conference trip, the respite is only brief — two home games followed by another three game trip against some tough opponents in the mix. The schedule allows a short window of more winnable games against the Pistons and Raptors twice, but otherwise it could be a difficult beginning to 2025.
The greatest insult, however, is that the Hawks do not have a home game for MLK Day. Instead they will travel to New York to take on the Knicks. Traditionally, the Hawks host an early game for MLK Day — and were the first team to host any MLK Day game in the NBA back in 1986 and have played the most MLK Day games — and for Atlanta to not have a home game is preposterous. The last instance of the Hawks not having a home game for MLK Day was 2017 when the game also took place in New York, and prior to that Atlanta had hosted a game on the previous 21 years.
Moving to February:
Total games: 12
Home games: 6
Road games: 6
Back-to-backs: 2
Longest road trip: 3 games
Longest homestand: 3 games
Average projected opponent win total (based on Caesar’s win totals): 42 wins
A shortened February due to the All-Star break and a fair mix of games of both extremes, such as two games against the Detroit Pistons and a game against the Washington Wizards. In contrast, games against New York, OKC, Milwaukee, and finally the first meetings of the season with the Orlando Magic present a number of challenges as the Hawks’ season — whatever it may look like — will be abundantly clear by now.
Moving to March:
Total games: 14
Home games: 9
Road games: 5
Back-to-backs: 2
Longest road trip: 2 games
Longest homestand: 6 games
Average projected opponent win total (based on Caesar’s win totals): 43 wins
The home games finally begin to arrive in March with the Hawks enjoying a six game homestand, including two consecutive games at home against the same opponent against Indiana. The Hawks finally meet the revamped 76ers, twice, while competing twice against the Bucks.
The projected opponent wins average being 43 this month — despite the 18.5 projected wins from the Brooklyn Nets — highlights that despite the home heavy schedule, there’s still tough opposition to be had as the season begins to draw to a close.
To that closing:
Total games: 8
Home games: 4
Road games: 4
Back-to-backs: 3
Longest road trip: 3 games
Longest homestand: 2 games
Average projected opponent win total (based on Caesar’s win totals): 40 wins
Two more games against the Magic and games against the Sixers and the Mavericks provide challenges for the Hawks to finish the season — if they are indeed in line to fight for playoff positioning. A few winnable games to finish in the Nets and Jazz may help the Hawks over the line should they need an easy win or two.
In closing…
In seasons past, there’s been clear splits in the schedule where you can say ‘once the Hawks get past — insert month here — it should get a little easier for them’. 2019-20 is a decent example of this famously, where the Hawks never got to enjoy the convincingly easiest part of their schedule for the season.
This season, it doesn’t seem as though there’s an ‘easy’ month for them, other than the first few games in October. February has some peaks and valleys; some really (in theory) bad teams but also the top teams. November also looks particularly challenging, as does January and March.
Of course, it bears repeating that ‘difficulty’ in opponents right now is based on projections. Teams surprise and teams disappoint. The Hawks could very well be one of the teams to surprise relative to expectation. They’re also one Trae Young injury from a complete write-off of a season, no longer with Dejounte Murray to count on to keep the team just above water in any absence of Young.
Given that the Hawks are projected to win about 35 games, it likely means a ceiling of competing for the final Play-In spot, if you’re lucky. It also suggests that nearly two thirds of the league are rated higher than the Hawks. I personally think a projection 35 wins is a bit harsh. Nevertheless, the road before the Atlanta Hawks has been set. How much of an uphill battle it will be will become clear in due course…