Explaining the last two losses and analyzing the starting lineup.
After winning seven out of eight games between November 27 and December 11, the Atlanta Hawks fell just short in each of their last two contests — an eight-point loss (where the Hawks were outscored 28-19 in the fourth quarter) to the Milwaukee Bucks in the NBA Cup semifinals last weekend and a gutting back-and-forth overtime defeat in San Antonio on Thursday.
While the Hawks fell victim to superstar-level performances from, well, superstar-level players in both defeats — with Giannis exploding for 32 points (on 10-for-15 shooting, 12-for-18 from the free throw line), 14 rebounds, nine assists and four blocks on Saturday, and Victor Wembanyama* going full on ‘Alien-Mode’ with a 42-point showing (13-for-24 from the floor, including 7-for-15 from three) on Thursday night — these performances weren’t the only reason that they lost.
*perhaps emboldened by visitors from his home planet earlier this week? (I kid, of course)
Something that’s plagued Atlanta all season*, and continued to be an issue in these games, was that they lost the three-point battle in both contests.
*Shoutout John Schumann’s weekly Power Rankings on nba.com which provide an excellent snapshot of the league each week.
Though they shot well in both games (10-for-24, 41.7%, against Milwaukee, 16-for-38, 42.1%, against San Antonio), Milwaukee took nearly twice as many attempts as they did on Saturday, shooting 14-for-45 (31.1%) from three, while San Antonio simply shot the lights out on Thursday, going 19-for-42 (45.2%) from beyond the arc — tied for the fifth most three-point makes the Hawks have conceded to an opponent this season.
Another area that hurt Atlanta against Milwaukee and San Antonio is that both opponents found a way to contain them on the offensive glass (a category which the Hawks rank seventh in on the season) — with two of the Hawks’ seven worst offensive rebounding performances of the season coming in their last two games.
Clint Capela, Dyson Daniels, and Jalen Johnson (who combine to average seven offensive boards per game this season) have managed just nine offensive rebounds between them over the last two contests — part of the reason for the team’s less-than-stellar offensive rebounding numbers as of late.
Still, despite the Hawks taking both the literal and proverbial ‘L’ in their last two games, there were still some positives to glean from those losses.
Against the Bucks, the Hawks showed a lot of fight in the second half, clawing their way back to take the lead heading into the fourth after trailing by 5-10 points for most of the second and third quarters. Trae Young reminded us of his penchant for big games, racking up 35 points, 10 assists and seven rebounds while making some impressive plays on the defensive end of the floor (below).
Trae Young blocks AJ Green from behind – great defensive effort! pic.twitter.com/vP5SI3jcmA
— MrBuckBuck (@MrBuckBuckNBA) December 15, 2024
Against the Spurs, Atlanta’s wing trio of Jalen Johnson, De’Andre Hunter and Zaccharie Risacher all had rough nights (combining to score just 32 points on 34 shots), Victor Wembanyama went nuclear, Jeremy Sochan* was hitting threes*, and yet, the Hawks still had chances to put themselves in a position to win at the end of regulation**.
*shooting 21.7% from three (including last night’s make, he has now made five threes total in 14 games played this season)
**Trae Young came up empty on a pair of free throws that would have either tied the game or put Atlanta up by one with 0:55 seconds left, then was stifled by Wembanyama with the game tied on the final possession of the fourth quarter
Hunter also did this (below) to Wembanyama in the final minute of the fourth quarter.
Whoah.
At 14-14 on the season*, the Hawks currently sit in seventh place in the Eastern Conference standings, one game ahead of the Pacers and Bulls, and one game behind Miami (in sixth). Looking at their schedule, it seems that the next 10 games will tell us a lot about how good this team really is.
*20th in offense, 17th in defense as of 12/19/2024
Tonight kicks off a challenging four-game homestand against Memphis, Minnesota, Chicago and Miami, before the team makes the trek up north to take on Toronto for their final game of 2024. From there, they’ll head out west for a five-game tour of the Western Conference that includes matchups against Denver, both LA teams, Utah and Phoenix, before returning home.
It’s a daunting slate, and if the Hawks’ can emerge from it at 19-19, I’ll be quite impressed.
This team will be tested over the next few weeks.
I’ve touched on Atlanta’s impressive defense and sputtering offense earlier this month, and today, I want to focus on the starting lineup of Trae Young, Dyson Daniels, Zaccharie Risacher, Jalen Johnson and Clint Capela — which has begun to lose some steam as of late.
In part due to the injuries that sidelined De’Andre Hunter and Bogdan Bogdanovic at the beginning of the season, this five-man unit has by far been Atlanta’s most used lineup, logging 250 minutes across 23 games played this season (163 more minutes than Atlanta’s second-most used lineup*).
*Which includes four out of the five players in the aforementioned most-used group except Hunter is in for Risacher
While this group’s season-long efficiency differential per 100 possessions (-1.5) doesn’t appear to be a cause for too much concern, zooming in on the last 10 games, they’ve actually been one of the worst five-man units in the NBA, being outscored by 21 points in 92 minutes* (10.4 points per 100 possessions) since November 27.
*The ninth most used lineup in the NBA over this span. This five-man group was a +13 in 158 minutes played (+4.3 points per 100 possessions) through 11/26. Yes, these are small sample sizes.
The table below (numbers from nba.com/stats) gives us some insight into where things have gone awry for this unit.
As you can see, despite the fact that this lineup has shot better, and that their opponent’s have shot worse from the floor as of late, one of the primary reasons that they’ve struggled so mightily since November 27 comes down to their sky-high offensive turnover percentage.
This lineup has coughed the ball up on a whopping one-fifth of their possessions over the team’s last 10 games (up from just 12% through Atlanta’s first 18 games of the season) which has just decimated their production on the offensive end.
Per pbpstats, Trae Young (14) and Jalen Johnson (10) have accounted for 24 of this lineup’s 40 turnovers during this stretch, and it’s clear that both players need to do a better job taking care of the ball as they are both posting career-highs in turnover percentage this season.
Something else that jumps out when looking at the table above is that this five-man group is getting to the free-throw line at a far lower rate than they were previously, with their free-throw attempt rate* falling from 22.3 to 11.6 over the last 10 games.
*Free-throw attempts per every 100 field goal attempts
I found this difference to be quite shocking when taking into account that this unit has actually generated a higher percentage of their shots at the rim over the last 10 games, raising their rim-shooting frequency from 35% through November 26 to 39.9% after November 26. However when you consider their turnover rate (discussed above, meaning fewer field goal attempts per 100 possessions), as well as the fact that they have drawn (non and-one) two-point shooting fouls at a much lower rate than they were previously, this number starts to make a little more sense*.
*Though I’m sure the Hawks would not be opposed to getting a friendlier whistle at the rim
One massive difference in this lineups’ free throw distribution over the last 10 games has been the (lack of) attempts from Zaccharie Risacher.
Per pbpstats, Risacher alone accounted for nearly one-third (23 out of 71) of this lineup’s free throw attempts up until November 26. However since then, he has curiously taken just two out of this lineup’s 20 free throw attempts*, and something I’ll be monitoring over the next few games is to see if they get Risacher a few more trips to the free throw line as it could help snap this lineup out of their offensive funk.
*While seeing his personal free throw attempts per game average fall from 2.9 to 1.4 despite his minutes, usage rate and drives per game remaining relatively similar
Finally, the last significant change seen in this lineup over the last 10 games is the dropoff in opponent turnover percentage, which has fallen from 15.6% to 11.1%. Forcing fewer turnovers both limits the number of transition possessions that the Hawks are able to generate* and provides the opponent with more opportunities to put points on the board themselves. If this unit can create some more havoc on the defensive end of the floor, chances are they’ll have more success.
*Hurting their offensive rating as it’s easier to score in transition than it is in the halfcourt
While the Hawks’ winning ways have resulted in a lot of positives being written about this team over the past few weeks, there is still a lot of season left (54 games to be exact), and if they are to maximize their potential this season, it’s imperative for them to stay the course, keep the outside noise on the outside, and continue to build upon what has gotten them to this point.
Though the starting lineup has struggled over the past few games, I’d be against making any changes to it barring a significant losing streak*.
*meaning at least five games
For one, building chemistry between Young, Risacher, Daniels and Johnson (who should all be wearing Hawks colors for the foreseeable future) is going to be incredibly important for this franchise going forwards, and if this four-man group can work through the growing pains, and learn how to effectively play off of one another, it’s going to pay significant dividends in the long run.
Second, what would a change to the starting lineup even look like? Young and Johnson aren’t going anywhere. Dyson isn’t either as his defense is far too valuable. Capela is a vital part of the defense and is more equipped than Okongwu to handle matchups against the league’s more physically imposing bigs.
Yes, Risacher has struggled on the offensive end this season, but is he the problem? He plays extremely hard, has been excellent on the defensive end, and has flashed his offensive potential on a few occasions — most notably in his 33-point explosion against the Knicks on November 6.
Hunter would be the obvious choice to replace him, though given that he’s thriving in his role off the bench, would Snyder risk taking him out of his rhythm by moving him back into the starting lineup? What impact would this have on Risacher? There are a few too many variables involved for me to be comfortable in suggesting that particular change.
Bogdanovic is another option and the one that appealed to me the most when I was thinking this through due to his shooting prowess. However, I do have my concerns about his ability to defend starting ‘wings’, as Daniels typically guards the primary ball-handler.
It’s not an easy question* and is one that I hope the Hawks’ won’t have to answer this season. However, for this to be the case, they need their starting unit to cut down on their turnovers, increase their free throw attempt rate, and create more havoc on the defensive end of the floor.
*If it was, Quin Snyder would have solved it by now
As I said, in the intro, we’re going to learn a lot about this team over the next few weeks — and one of those things might just be what their optimal starting-five looks like going forwards.
All stats/videos used in this article are from nba.com/stats, pbpstats.com, cleaningtheglass.com, dunksandthrees.com or bball-index.com