Atlanta Hawks Analysis: Nine intriguing numbers from the first nine games

What’s jumped out from the first two weeks?

Nine games into the 2024-25 season, the Atlanta Hawks may still be pitter-pattering around the .500 mark in the wins and losses columns, though after Wednesday night’s electrifying 121-116 victory over the New York Knicks*, it’s safe to say that the vibes are high at the moment. The team is feeling confident heading into a five-game stretch that includes four matchups against Detroit, Chicago, Washington and Portland — all teams that missed out on the playoffs last season** — in addition to a rematch against the three-point shooting machine that is the Boston Celtics.

*Currently 3rd in Fanduel’s NBA Championship odds

**Though should by no means be chalked up as guaranteed wins as nothing comes easy in the NBA

While the highlight from the Knicks victory was obviously no. 1 overall pick Zaccharie Risacher’s breakout performance — with the rookie exploding for 33 points on 11-for-18 shooting (6-for-10 from three) to go along with seven rebounds, three steals, two blocks, and no turnovers — head coach Quin Snyder will also be pleased with the way Atlanta dominated the boards (+14 advantage in second-chance-points), took care of the ball (season-low eight turnovers), and disrupted New York’s offensive flow on the other end of the floor (season-high 26 deflections).

We’ll see if the Hawks can keep the momentum going tonight against a scrappy Detroit Pistons team.

9 Intriguing Numbers From The First 9 Games

On to the good stuff. While it’s still a little early for any of these numbers to carry too much weight, today, I thought it’d be fun to highlight out a couple of interesting stats from the first two weeks of the season.

I’ve got a few numbers on the team as a whole. A few individual player stats. A couple of optimistic numbers. Some concerning ones. No matter what category they fall under though, they’re all intriguing.

Let’s dive in.

66.7% – Garrison Mathews 3PT Shooting Percentage from the Right Side of the Court

It’s no secret that ‘Garry Bird’ has been a bucket for the Hawks so far, with his overall three-point percentage (52%) ranking second in the NBA amongst players who have taken at least five threes per-game* this season.

*96 players in this subset

While opposing defenses will do their best to prevent Matthews from getting off a three no matter where he is on the court, looking at his shot chart so far (below), you can see that he has been absolutely lethal from the right side of the court, shooting a combined 18-for-27 (66.7%) from the right wing and right corner through the team’s first nine games.

Though I’m all but certain that these shooting numbers will come down as the season goes on, there’s no denying how important Mathews’ shooting has been for Atlanta early on, particularly with Bogdan Bogdanovic on the sidelines.

While it was great to see Risacher finally ignite from three-point land on Wednesday, the rookie has canned just 29% of his three-point attempts early on, and until he proves that his shooting can be relied upon, Mathews will continue to fill an important role in the offense until Bogdanovic returns from injury.

Looking at the table above from basketballreference, you can see that of the five Hawks players who have taken more than 20 threes through the team’s first nine games, Mathews is the only one shooting better than 31% from downtown, underscoring his importance to Atlanta’s three-point attack early on in the season.

19.7 – Field Goals Made at the Rim Per Game

One of the most notable differences in the Hawks’ early season offensive shot profile from last season has been the uptick in the percentage of their shots that they are taking — and making — at the rim.

Looking at the tables below (from cleaningtheglass.com), you can see that the Hawks have increased their rim-shooting frequency* and accuracy by 4.5% this season, ranking in the upper half of the league in both categories so far in 2024-25 after ranking in the bottom half in both categories last season.

*The percentage of their shots taken at the rim (within 4-feet)

Though three-pointers are all the rage nowadays, shots at the rim are still the most valuable shot in the game (on a points per shot basis*), and it’s encouraging to see the Hawks prioritize these types of looks on offense early on.

*The league average 3P% is 35.7% so far this season, netting a team 1.07 points per shot. The league-average rim FG% is 66.8% so far this season, netting a team 1.33 points per shot. Threes are cool, but lay-ups/dunks are where it’s at, people!

82.2% – Clint Capela’s FG% at the Rim

Speaking of shots at the rim, it is certainly nice to see Clint Capela looking confident as an interior scorer again. Last season was a nightmare year for Capela efficiency-wise, as he shot just 61% on his rim attempts — not at all up to his usual standard and a mark which ranked in just the 19th percentile amongst all big men per cleaningtheglass.

Through the first nine games of the 2024-25 season, however, it seems that Capela has put last year’s struggles behind him, and he has in fact, been one of the best interior finishers in the NBA early on — shooting 82.2% at the rim, the fourth best mark in the league amongst players with at least 35 total rim attempts this season*.

*71 players in this subset as of 11/7/24

It’s still early, but Capela’s improved scoring efficiency has been a bright spot through the first nine games.

66.6% – Assist Percentage (8th Highest in the NBA!)

Ball movement has been something that Quin Snyder has preached ever since he arrived in Atlanta, and after the team ranked 19th in assist percentage (61.8%), and 21st in passes per game last season (Snyder’s first full season as Atlanta’s head coach), he did not seem satisfied, saying at last month’s Media Day that there is “an opportunity to play more with the pass” this season, and that an uptick in ball movement “would allow [the team] to play a little bit different than [they] played last season.”

Well through the first two weeks of the season, Snyder has to be pleased with the improvement he’s seen in the team’s ball movement with the Hawks ranking eighth in assist percentage (66.6%), and 15th in passes per game so far in 2024-25.

While a team rating highly in either assist percentage or passes per game does not necessarily correlate with success in the wins and losses columns, and speaks more to their style of play rather than anything else, an interesting statistical nugget worth monitoring from the first few games is that the Hawks currently rank second in the NBA in the percentage of their two-point baskets that come via an assist* (behind only the Denver Nuggets) — something which is likely related to the team’s uptick in rim shooting frequency and accuracy discussed above.

*This is a category that the Hawks ranked just 15th in last season

*The play in the second clip is just a lovely design/execution.

10.9 – Assists per game for Trae Young

Keeping the focus on Atlanta’s increased ball movement, it’s hard not to appreciate the job that Trae Young has done navigating the team through a pretty rocky stretch injury-wise.

Despite having a new, constantly shifting supporting cast through the first nine games, Young has not stopped getting his teammates involved, topping the 10-assist mark in all but two games this season, with his 10.9 assists per game ranking second amongst all players, only trailing the reigning MVP, Nikola Jokic*, in this category. Over the last five games, he’s done a better job taking care of the ball, averaging just three turnovers per game during this stretch (after averaging 6.5 turnovers per game through his first four games).

*Young would be no. 1 had ‘The Joker’ not dished out 16 assists during Denver’s victory against the Oklahoma City Thunder on Wednesday night.

While Young’s efficiency as a scorer has not been up his usual standard, his passing ability is as sharp as ever, and it’s been a pleasure watching him pull off plays like the ones below this season.

17.6 – Opponent Made Threes Per Game

With Atlanta’s record still sitting below .500 on the season, all of these numbers were not going to be ‘positive’, and while there are, of course, a couple of areas for the team to clean up as the season goes on (turnovers, defensive rebounding, transition defense to name a few), the most glaring thing that’s gone against the Hawks this season has been their opponent’s proficiency from beyond the three-point line.

Through their first nine games, the Hawks rank dead last in the NBA in both three-point attempts allowed (43.2), and opponent three-point accuracy (40.6%*). On average, their opponents are making 17.6 threes per-game (!) against them, a whopping two more per game than the team (Memphis) that ranks second in this category.

*No team in the last 11 seasons (as far back as nba.com’s data goes) has allowed their opponent’s to shoot 40% or better from three over the course of an entire season, so this number is bound to come down for the Hawks.

While part of this simply comes down to some unfortunate shooting luck, looking at the types of threes the Hawks are giving up it’s clear that, as a team, they need to do a better job contesting their opponents’ shots from beyond the arc.

Per nba.com/stats, Atlanta ranks 28th in “wide open” three-pointers* conceded to their opponents (23.0), and 26th in “open” three-pointers** conceded to their opponents (16.0), with their opponents shooting better than 40% on both kinds of attempts — a big factor in their bottom-five defensive rating early on.

*Defined by nba.com/stats as a 3PA without a defender within 6-feet of the shooter.

** Defined by nba.com/stats as a 3PA with a defender between 4-to-6-feet away from the shooter.

The Hawks need to do a better job closing out on opposing shooters going forwards.

42.9 – Paint Points Allowed Per Game

With Atlanta allowing so many attempts from three (and their opponent’s shooting so well from beyond the arc), you might not be too impressed to hear that the Hawks actually rank third in points allowed in the paint per game on the season thus far. You may be thinking something along the lines of, “they’re getting killed from the perimeter, and rank 27th in defensive rating. This defense is hopeless.”

For me however, this number is a big deal.

Atlanta ranked 25th in opponent points in the paint last season, with their defense conceding shots at the rim at one of the highest rates in the league. Looking at their defensive shot profile from this season (below), you can see they’ve done a better job at both keeping their opponents from getting to the rim*, and at protecting the basket when they do get there.

*In line with their offensive philosophy

As discussed above, the three-point line is the biggest pain point for Atlanta’s defense, though even if they continue to let their opponent’s fire away quality looks from three at such a high rate, it’s likely that their opponent’s three-point shooting percentages decrease as the season goes on*. If the Hawks can sustain this level of interior defense going forwards, their defense may be just good enough for them to cause a few ripples in the murky waters of the Eastern Conference.

*Again, no team in the past 11 years (as far back as nba.com’s data goes) has allowed their opponents to shoot better than 40% from three over the course of an entire season.

However, if they can do a better job of running their opponent’s off the three-point line, and funnel these attempts to the mid-range (rather than the rim) while sustaining their above-average opponent ‘Rim’ and ‘SMR’ field-goal percentages, dare I say this team could finish outside of the bottom-10 in defensive rating for the first time since the 2020-21 season? It’s not impossible.

10.1 – Steals Per Game

Another bright spot for Atlanta’s defense in the early going has been the number of turnovers that they have been able to cause, with their 10.1 steals per game ranking second-most in the league thus far.

To no one’s surprise, Dyson Daniels has spearheaded the attack for the Hawks in this area, with his 2.4 steals per game ranking second in the NBA* early on, however Jalen Johnson (1.6), Trae Young (1.3), Keaton Wallace (1.1), and Zaccharie Risacher (1.1) have all gotten in on the action, averaging over a steal per game themselves as well.

*I’ll give you a virtual high five if you can guess who leads the league in steals per game thus far. Answer is here. Have I mentioned it’s very early on in the season?

While Atlanta’s defensive turnover percentage ranks just 11th in the NBA, the fact that they are forcing so many steals is notable because steals occur in the run of play, giving the Hawks a chance to create an easy transition opportunity for themselves on the other end.

Per cleaningtheglass, Atlanta has turned nearly 70% of their steals into transition opportunities* this season, scoring 1.44 points per possession* on these plays**, and it’s nice to see the Hawks creating a few more of these momentum-shifting plays for themselves this season after ranking just 16th in steals last season (7.5 steals per game).

*Both of these marks rank slightly above the league-average thus far

**For reference, per cleaningtheglass, Atlanta is scoring just 0.95 ppp in the half-court — a mark which ranks 16th in the NBA, yet is still a far less efficient offensive possession than one that comes off of a steal.

87 – Total Minutes Played by De’Andre Hunter and Bogdan Bogdanovic So Far

Finally, it’s hard to forget that the Hawks have been playing without two of their most important players for the majority of the season in De’Andre Hunter and Bogdan Bogdanovic.

Both players played what appeared to be regular minutes on opening night (with Hunter also playing in their second game against Charlotte), however have both been sidelined for the past few games.

Bogdanovic (who led Atlanta in on/off impact last season) will be out until at least the end of November with ‘right hamstring tendinopathy’ while Hunter’s status is far more murky, as he’s missed seven consecutive games with ‘right knee injury management’ with the team being quite coy about his status.

Presuming both players can get back to full strength soon (and stay healthy upon their return to action) they should help bolster the team’s three-point shooting attack, provide more depth/defense on the wings, and reduce some of the offensive burden on Trae Young.

It looks like it’s going to be a little while longer, but it’s going to be nice to get both players back down the line.

Note: All statistics/video used in this article are from basketballreference.com, nba.com/stats, cleaningtheglass.com, dunksandthrees.com or 3stepsbasket.com.