Atlanta Hawks Analysis: Observations from the first five games

Not an ideal start, but still a lot of hoops to be played.

It’s been a strange start to the 2024-25 season for the Atlanta Hawks.

Sitting at 2-3 after back-to-back losses to the Washington Wizards*, it’s fair to be a little disappointed in their win percentage at this (very) early stage of the season.

*A rebuilding club that finished with one more win than the Detroit Pistons last season and just trotted out the youngest starting five in their franchise’s history against the Hawks on Wednesday night.

Somehow, despite 13 out of their 15 players (and eight out of their projected top-9) suiting up for opening night on October 23rd, you already have to click the “show more” button on Twitter to read the Hawks’ entire injury report, with key rotation players in Bogdan Bogdanovic, Kobe Bufkin, Vit Krejci, De’Andre Hunter and Dyson Daniels all missing Wednesday night’s game against the Wizards.

While the Hawks hope to get Daniels and Hunter* back on the court soon, Krejci is projected to miss at least the next two weeks, while Bufkin and Bogdanovic will both be re-evaluated in four weeks, and could potentially be out for longer than that.

*who was listed as ‘questionable’ on Wednesday with right knee inflammation

On the basketball court, the three-point shooting luck has not swung in Atlanta’s favor early on which has played a significant part in the team’s underwhelming 2-3 record. Hawks’ opponents are shooting a league-high 42.1% from three*, while they have shot just 34.2% from the beyond the arc themselves, a bottom-10 mark in the league thus far.

*The Hawks are conceding three-point attempts to their opponents at the second-highest rate in the league (43.2 3PA per game) while generating threes at just below the league-average rate themselves (35.2 3PA per game) through the first five games, which certainly makes the difference in 3P shooting accuracy seem more dire when watching the games live.

Jalen Johnson, who signed a 5-year/$150-million extension prior to the season, has struggled to find his touch as a scorer, shooting just 41.3% from the field and 22.2% from three so far, hurting Atlanta’s offensive efficiency.

Still, not all hope is lost. It’s only been five games, folks! Despite Atlanta’s meager record, there have been a couple of noteworthy bright spots too.

Despite missing both Hunter and Bogdanovic for the ‘OKC’ game last weekend, the Hawks were able to spar with perhaps the best team in the Western Conference for three quarters… before things got ugly in the fourth.

If drawing positives from a 24-point loss seems like I’m clutching at straws a little, surely nobody can deny how impressive Dyson Daniels has looked in his first four games as a Hawk. His defense has been as good as advertised, and on offense, he’s shot 6-for-17 (35.3%) from the perimeter thus far — an area that was a question mark for him entering the season.

Rookie no. 1 overall pick, Zaccharie Rissacher is still adjusting to life in the NBA but has managed to string together some really impressive possessions on both ends of the floor in the early going (more on this later), even if his jump shot hasn’t fallen as often as he would like. Trae Young’s assist-to-usage ratio is the highest of his career, and he is averaging a league-leading 11.6 assists per game.

Until we get some further clarity on the team’s injury situation (specifically, how much time Daniels and Hunter will miss), I’m not saying anyone should be overly optimistic about the Hawks, but given that it’s been a little over a week since the season started, it’s far too early to be pushing the panic button after a couple of losses to the Wizards. There is still a lot of basketball ahead of us.

Without further ado, here are three observations about the Hawks through the first five games of the season.

#1) The Return of the (Free Throw) King

Love it or hate it, Trae Young’s foul-drawing gimmicks are always going to be a big part of his game. And while this aspect of his play style is not always easy on the eye, there is undoubtedly a ton of value in having an 87.4% career free-throw shooter that is able to get to the line as often as Young on your team, as it’s virtually a guaranteed two points for the offense while also giving him and his teammates a chance to catch their breath and set their defense on the other end. Not to mention the foul trouble that the defenders who guard Young for too long have to deal with.

Looking at Young’s free-throw shooting numbers over the years, you can see that he ranked near the top of the league in both makes and attempts (per game) in the 2019-20 and ’20-21 seasons, before falling outside the top-five in both categories in each of the last three seasons.

Though we’re barely over a week into the ’24-25 season, Young is back at the top of free-throw leaderboard, ranking no. 1 in the league in free-throw makes per game and no. 4 in free-throw attempts per game while shooting an impressive 48-for-53 (90.6%) at the line to begin the new season.

Per cleaningtheglass, Young is drawing shooting fouls on 13.1% of his shot-attempts thus far (a mark which ranks eighth amongst all guards this season) and even when he’s not putting pressure on the defense as a scorer, he is drawing non-shooting fouls on 4.9% of the plays that he is on the court for — a higher rate than anyone in the league except for Lauri Markannen (5.3%) and Victor Wembanyama (5.0%) so far this season.

I’m curious to see whether Young can retain his spot on the free-throw leaderboard as the season goes on, or whether these numbers are merely an early season blip.

#2) So… What’s Going On with Jalen Johnson?

It’s been a meteoric rise for Jalen Johnson, who wasn’t even a day one starter to begin last season, yet, over the past year, has emerged as one of the Hawks’ building blocks for the future, as evidenced by the 5-year/$150 million contract extension the team handed him just days before the season opener.

While I do like the contract, and remain optimistic about Johnson’s long-term potential, there’s no denying the fact that through the first five games of the season, adjustment to life as the ‘no. 2 option’ on offense (23.3%* usage so far) has been a challenge for him.

*It’s possible that this number comes down as the season continues as both Bogdanovic and Hunter (not to mention Bufkin and Krejci) being out may be forcing Johnson into a bit more of an on-ball role than anticipated.

As a playmaker, while Johnson is creating opportunities for his teammates at a similar rate to last season*, he’s turning the ball over at a sky-high rate, ranking sixth in the league in total turnovers through the first eight days of the season. He’s got to do a better job of taking care of the basketball.

**Johnson averaged 5.2 assists per 100 possessions in 2023-24 and is averaging five assists per 100 possessions so far this season

As a scorer, Johnson’s efficiency has not been pretty, with his field goal, three-point and free throw percentages all down from last season, and his early season true shooting percentage of 47.9% coming in at nine percentage points lower than his career-long mark of 56.9%.

Though it’s still too early to draw any sweeping conclusions, something that jumps out when looking at Johnson’s shot profile is that he is taking a higher proportion of his shots from the “short mid-range*” this season with a career-high 36% of his attempts coming from this area of the floor to start the season.

*Defined on cleaningtheglass as “shots outside of 4-feet, but inside ~14-feet”

*You can ignore the percentiles (numbers in blue/orange) in the image above as the shot profiles for forwards and bigs (the two positions Johnson has been listed at on CTG) are generally pretty different.

While Johnson has shot a respectable, 43.2% from this range for his career, he is an explosive athlete who has always been more efficient when he gets to the rim (shooting 68% at the rim for his career).

Yet, this season, there have been a few too many possessions where he settles for a floater rather than getting to the basket or dishing to a teammate for a higher value shot.

Take the possession above from the Charlotte game for example. Johnson is bearing down on a backpedaling Seth Curry in transition. We know what Jalen can do to people in transition. This should be easy money for the Hawks.

However, instead of taking it all the way to the cup and (at the very least) drawing a foul on Curry, Johnson opts for a 10’ floater, and it’s an empty possession for Atlanta’s offense.

In this possession from the third quarter of their game against OKC, Johnson has Caruso on his hip when he takes the second dribble in the clip above. However, instead of exploding into the driving lane, he hesitates for a split-second (maybe he’s thrown off by Ousmane Dieng’s half-hearted stunt from the corner?), which gives Caruso an opportunity to recover and prevent an easy shot at the rim.

From their first matchup against Washington, in the final minute of the first quarter, Johnson gets the hand-off from Vit Krejci, takes two dribbles, then (without creating an advantage on Kuzma) forces up a contested, 9’ floater with 17 seconds on the shot clock. This is just poor shot selection.

It’s early. The adjustment period, as Johnson transitions into a larger offensive role, was never going to be seamless. But for now, I’d like to see him clean up his shot selection and carve out a few more attempts at the rim rather than from the mid-range.

3) Zaccharie Risacher Coming Along Nicely

Speaking of unfortunate shooting slumps, it’s been a tough shooting stretch for rookie, no. 1 overall draft pick, Zaccharie Risacher, to begin his NBA career.

In 25 minutes a night across his first five games (including three starts in De’Andre Hunter’s absence), Risacher is averaging 9.2 points while shooting just 17-for-48 (35.4%) from the floor and 5-for-21 (23.8%) from three. Still, despite the tough shooting percentages, I’ve been quite impressed with what Risacher has brought to the table in the early going.

His ‘per game’ marks of 1.8 assists and 3.2 rebounds may not jump off the screen, but he’s shown some flair as a playmaker (first clip below), and has been a nuisance on the offensive glass (second and third clips), with his on/off offensive rebounding impact (+5.6%) ranking second on the team, per cleaningtheglass.

Check out this dime in the play above for his first career assist.

This is great effort on the offensive glass.

As we’ve covered above, Risacher hasn’t been very efficient scoring the basketball thus far. However, to his credit, he rarely forces things and tends to operate from the high-value areas of the court — with roughly 80% of his field goal attempts coming either at the rim or from beyond the three-point line.

I’ve been impressed with a few of his drives early on.

On the defensive end, Risacher has had a few ‘rookie moments’*, but in general, I’ve been impressed with his play on this end of the floor. He’s always active — leading the team in total blocks (6) through the first five games — and has held up alright in one-on-one matchups.

In the clip above, he does a good job walling off Mann’s drive, then uses his length to bother the corner three attempt from Grant Williams.

Against OKC, he does a nice job sticking with ‘J-Dub’ around the screen off-ball, then does just enough to bother the dunk attempt.

Against the Wizards, he does well to absorb the contact from Kuzma, then comes up with the swat.

As the Hawks’ schedule gets more difficult, Risacher is going to get tested more and more, but I’ve been encouraged by what he’s shown on both ends of the floor so far. If his jump shot begins to fall, and he can sustain/build upon the flashes he’s shown on defense, he won’t stay under the radar for long.

The Hawks are back in action tonight, taking on the new-look Sacramento Kings at State Farm Arena. Tip-off is at 7:30 pm EST.

Note: All statistics/video used in this article are from basketballreference.com, nba.com/stats, cleaningtheglass.com, dunksandthrees.com or bball-index.com.