Taking a closer look at Atlanta’s red hot three-point shooting of late.
If you’re curious as to how the Atlanta Hawks’ offense has not only managed to not only stay afloat, but thrive over their last ten games despite injuries to numerous key players, look no further than the team’s three-point shooting numbers.
Through the first 64 games of the season, Atlanta was scoring 117.1 points per 100 possessions — the ninth highest offensive rating in the league — yet, they were just an okay three-point shooting side, ranking 11th in three-point attempt rate (40.3%), and 18th in three-point accuracy (36.1%).
The last 10 games however, have been a different story.
Since Saddiq Bey’s season-ending injury against the Pelicans on March 10th, Atlanta has ranked seventh in three-point attempt rate (42.4%), fourth in three-point accuracy (40.2%), and in turn, their offensive rating has jumped up to 119.2 points per 100 possessions — the 4th highest offensive rating in the league during this span.
So what’s going on?
Looking at how the Hawks’ have distributed their minutes over the past ten games you can see how different their rotation has looked as of late, as injuries to four of their top seven players in ‘minutes played’ through the first 64 games of the season have given end-of-the-bench players such as Vit Krejci*, Garrison Mathews, Bruno Fernando, Trent Forrest, Wesley Matthews and Dylan Windler* opportunities for more playing time.
*indicates a two-way player (ineligible for the postseason roster)
Digging into the individual players’ shooting numbers, out of the players who have gotten the largest bumps in minutes over the last ten games, Krejci, Matthews and Mathews* have all been shooting the three-ball at extraordinarily high-levels, with Vit shooting 40% on 3.5 attempts per game, Wes shooting an insane 50% on 3.1 attempts per game, and Garrison shooting an even-more-insane 52.6% on 3.8 attempts per game during this stretch.
*One “t” for Garrison, two “t’s” for Wes
While the shooting from Atlanta’s role players has undoubtedly given their offense a massive lift, as you can see in the graphs above, the majority of the team’s threes have come from the top-end of the rotation, with Dejounte Murray, De’Andre Hunter and Bogdan Bogdanovic accounting for nearly two-thirds (63.2%) of their total three-point attempts since March 11th.
Bogdanovic has made a living as a sharpshooter and has been on a nice run as of late, shooting 40.3% from three on over seven attempts per-game during this stretch. Hunter has had a career year from three, and has upped his volume in recent weeks while knocking down his looks at a solid, 36.4% rate.
Yet, while Bogi and Hunter have been vital, perhaps the most impressive shooter for Atlanta over their last ten games has been Dejounte Murray.
Murray, who has taken over as Atlanta’s starting point guard ever since Young’s injury, has adjusted nicely to life as a no. 1 option, shooting 37.8% on a whopping 11.1 three-point attempts per-game* over his last ten games. This three-point volume and efficiency from Murray looks even more impressive when you consider that prior to the 2023-24 season, he had taken 10 or more threes in a game just twice in his entire career.
*Yes, this number is slightly inflated due to the Celtics’ game on Thursday where Murray took 19 threes (44 shots in total), however even excluding that game, Murray has averaged 10.2 3PA’s per-game since March 11th
Now that we’ve established who has been responsible for this wonderful shooting display from the Hawks in recent weeks, the question is: has there been something more subtle behind this improvement, or has this merely been a case of “March basketball weirdness”?
Well I hope I’m not disappointing anyone by suggesting that Garrison Mathews and Wesley Matthews (probably) won’t continue to shoot 50%-plus from three, but one red flag that suggests the team’s shooting could be difficult to sustain lies in the ‘closest defender’ shooting numbers from nba.com/stats.
Since March 11th, the Hawks’ rank no. 1 in the league in three-point attempts with the closest defender within 2-4 feet*, and last in the league in three-point attempts with the closest defender 6+ feet away**. While they have shot lights-out in both categories because well, of course they have, their shot quality has been startling for a team that has seen such a dramatic improvement in three-point accuracy.
*classified by nba.com as ‘tightly contested’
**classified as ‘wide-open’
Something else that I found curious is that despite the significant changes to the rotation, the Hawks haven’t necessarily changed their shot diet, as they’ve taken a similar percentage of catch-and-shoot and pull-up threes over their last ten games as they were taking before it.
While their conversion rate on pull-ups has been a few ticks higher, the driving force behind the overall upswing in three-point shooting appears to be the massive improvement on catch-and-shoot attempts, as their conversion rate on these looks has skyrocketed from 36.1% to 42.3% over the last ten games — the difference between 26th and first in this category on the season.
Digging into the catch-and-shoot numbers a bit further, you can see that while much of the improvement has come down to the difference in personnel (as Krejci, Mathews and Matthews have been shooting lights out and rarely take pull-up threes), Murray has also shot a ridiculous 48.8% off the catch during this stretch, giving the team’s overall numbers a boost.
*after shooting 36.5% through the team’s first 64 games
Now, I don’t mean to dismiss what Atlanta has accomplished over the past few weeks (with a banged up roster nonetheless). And even though it’s clear that the team has benefited from some uncharacteristically hot three-point shooting, I don’t believe that this has been a completely random stretch of basketball.
One thing that could be indirectly making an impact on their improved shooting accuracy is that they have done a better job moving the ball as of late, upping their passes per game from 265.8 to 285.9 over their past 10 games — the difference between 25th and 12th in this category on the season. Additionally, a higher percentage of the team’s three-point makes have come via an assist*, indicating that more of their shots have come within the flow of the offense during this stretch.
*which is directly tied to Atlanta’s improved catch-and-shoot three-point efficiency
There have been a few possessions like the ones below where Atlanta uses both ball and player movement to create a quality look from three, and it’s great to see when this passing is rewarded on the scoresheet.
*shoutout Garrison Matthews, who played a big part in creating both of the shots above
It’s been a wacky, unpredictable, albeit encouraging couple of weeks of Hawks basketball. There’s no telling how long this team will be able to sustain this current stretch of hot shooting, although if we can glean anything from the past ten games, it’s that their efficiency on catch-and-shoot threes has been a crucial element in their recent success.
Atlanta has a golden opportunity to keep the three-point party going tonight against the Bulls (who happen to rank dead last in opponent three-point frequency, per cleaningtheglass) in a likely Play-In Tournament preview.
Let’s hope the Hawks can make it rain in the Windy City.
Disclaimer: All stats used in this article are from nba.com/stats, pbpstats.com, or cleaningtheglass.com