How do the Hawks stack up compared to the rest of the East through the first few weeks?
The Atlanta Hawks rollercoaster of a season continued with more twists and turns over this past week.
After a statement home victory over the New York Knicks last Thursday (that went a long ways in washing off the stains from their back-to-back defeats to the basement dwelling Washington Wizards the week prior), the Hawks fell short in two disappointing defeats to the Detroit Pistons and Chicago Bulls over the weekend — two teams with more losses than wins so far this season that, frankly, Atlanta would like to be peering down upon in the Eastern Conference standings by the the time the regular season is finished.
Then, on Tuesday night, facing the Boston Celtics on the road* in the NBA Cup without their offensive engine in Trae Young**, the Hawks pulled off a stunning, upset victory— rallying from a 15-point second-half deficit to hand the defending champions just their third loss of the young season.
*Making this victory even more impressive for Atlanta is the fact the Celtics posted the best home record in the NBA last season, losing just four regular season games at the Boston Garden.
**Who made a surprise appearance on the injury report this week with ‘right Achilles tendonitis’ though did participate in yesterday’s practice per Kevin Chouinard of Hawks.com which bodes well for his playing status going forwards.
Jalen Johnson posted his second-career triple double with 18 points, 13 rebounds and 10 assists to go along with three steals and a block. Larry Nance Jr. gave them a massive lift off the bench, scoring 19 points on 7-for-10 shooting from the field including five threes, the most three-point makes that Nance Jr. has ever had in an NBA game. Onyeka Okongwu had the game-winning putback, played the final 18 minutes of the game, and was a team-best +15 in the plus-minus column.
Still, while there were a number of impressive performances in the victory, the story of the night was undoubtedly the play of Dyson Daniels — the 21 year-old Aussie who came over as part of the Dejounte Murray trade this summer — who poured in a career-high 28 points, to go along with seven assists and six steals against the Celtics.
Tuesday night’s contest was Daniels’ third consecutive game posting six or more steals*, and he now has 36 steals in his first 10 games as a Hawk, the most by a player in their first 10 games of the season since ’03 Allen Iverson**. Next time you go to a Hawks game, you better check to make sure you have all of your belongings before leaving because there’s a non-zero chance that Daniels has unwittingly picked your pocket too! The man is a menace.
*Becoming just the fourth player in NBA history to accomplish this feat since they began tracking steals
**The NBA record for steals per game over the course of an entire regular season is 3.7. Daniels is not far behind.
Additionally, Daniels’ 76 deflections are the most in the NBA by a significant margin (Nikola Jokic is in second place with 45 deflections), and are the most by a player over a 10-game stretch since ‘deflections’ began being tracked roughly a decade ago. Per ESPN Australia, the NBA record for total deflections in a season is 300, a mark that Daniels will absolutely obliterate if he continues at this rate.
Is Dyson Daniels the best perimeter defender in the entire NBA? His early season play suggests that he should (at the very least) be in the conversation.
Dyson Daniels saved my life
— joe schmidt (@Joe_Schmidt07) November 13, 2024
Of course, while Daniels’ efforts on the defensive end of the floor have received most of the plaudits early on, something else that I’ve been impressed by has been his ability to score from the short mid-range* on offense (floater distance).
*FGA’s between 4 and 14-feet away from the basket
Per pbpstats, Daniels shot an impressive 48.2% from this area in 2023-24, though due to his limited offensive role in New Orleans he only took around 1.5 floaters per game last season. This season in a more prominent role, he has taken nearly 4.5 floaters per game* while converting them at a healthy 45.5% clip (a mark which ranks in the 61st percentile amongst combo guards this season, per CTG).
*Upping his SMR-shooting frequency from around 25% in his two seasons in New Orleans to 33% so far this season, per cleaningtheglass.
His comfort level from this distance was evident against Boston with his first eight ‘makes’ of the game on Tuesday coming from floater range (a few of which I’ve included below), and the touch he’s displayed on these types of shots has been another bright spot for him in the early going.
Still, while Daniels and the Hawks certainly looked great on Tuesday night, we are not goldfish here at Peachtree Hoops. Last weekend’s losses to Detroit and Chicago have not been forgotten. While this team has proven that they are a talented bunch, it’s clear that consistency is the next hurdle for them. If the level of play on display in their wins against New York and Boston can be the rule rather than the exception, the Atlanta Hawks are going to make some noise this season.
The Hawks are back in action tonight (7:30 pm EST) against the Washington Wizards — a team who’s only two wins of the season have come against the Hawks — in another NBA Cup tie. Let’s hope Atlanta can keep the momentum going on their (bright!) home floor.
Eastern Conference Power Rankings
Anyways, this article is titled ‘Eastern Conference Power Rankings’ so without further ado, let’s get into it. While it’s been difficult to make heads or tails of this Hawks’ team in the early going, the silver lining for them is that the rest of the East has gotten off to a less than impressive start as well.
As of November 15th, there are just three Eastern Conference teams sitting above the ‘.500-line’ (Cleveland, Boston, Orlando) while another six (New York, Indiana, Chicago, Atlanta, Brooklyn, Miami) find themselves a game or two beneath that mark. The Milwaukee Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers — who were third and fourth amongst ECF teams in the Preseason Title Odds — have both sputtered out of the gate (though Philadelphia can at least blame their slow start on the absences of key players).
Suffice it to say, it’s been rather ugly so far.
Below, I’ve placed each team in the Eastern Conference into tiers and provided their offensive and defensive ‘four factors’ statistics, as well as their league-wide ranking in each category. Hope you enjoy!
Tier I: The Not ‘F-ing’ Around Tier
Cleveland Cavaliers
With an unblemished 13-0 record, there is no team playing better basketball at the moment than the Cleveland Cavaliers. Their defense remains as stout as ever, while their offensive rating has soared to no. 2 in the league (after ranking just 18th last season) thanks to some red hot three-point shooting. The Cavs are shooting 41.2% from three, the best mark in the NBA, and they look like contenders in the early going.
Boston Celtics
The defending champions have looked the part thus far, maintaining their perch atop the league in offensive efficiency, scoring 121 points per 100 possessions (with a whopping 55.9% of their field goal attempts coming from beyond the arc). Jayson Tatum is looking like an MVP candidate so far, leading the team in points (30.2), rebounds (7.6), assists (5.6) and steals (1.5). The Celtics will become even scarier once Kristaps Porzingis returns from offseason surgery.
Tier II: The ‘Feelin Alright’ Tier
Orlando Magic
The Magic dropped four straight games after losing Paolo Banchero to an oblique injury on Halloween night, however they have responded quite nicely — winning their last four in a row with Franz Wagner averaging 27.8 points, 6 assists and just 1.3 turnovers per-game during this stretch.
Spearheaded by Jalen Suggs, the Magic defend like maniacs, allowing the second fewest points per 100 possessions thus far. Additionally, they are one of just three teams (joining the Lakers and Cavs) to remain undefeated at home (6-0). The Kia Center is intimidating.
New York Knicks
Despite having more losses than wins this season, New York has the seventh-best net rating in the NBA thus far thanks to blowout wins against the Pacers (25 points), Pistons (30 points) Bucks (22 points), and the fact that they haven’t suffered any major losses outside of their opening night defeat to the Celtics.
The Knicks ranked seventh in offensive rating last season and are up to fourth this year (thanks to an uptick in three-point shooting accuracy). On the defensive end, despite trotting out a starting lineup that includes Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby, they rank 26th in opponent eFG% and rank near the bottom of the league in steals per game.
Tier III: The ‘Lotta Questions’ Tier
Indiana Pacers
After their offense took the league by storm last season (#2 in offensive rating in 2023-24), the Pacers are having a hard time replicating their level of play from last season — ranking just 16th in offensive rating thus far while their defense remains porous.
Looking at their offensive profile on cleaningtheglass, Indiana hasn’t shot worse from any one location on the floor, however they have taken more shots from the mid-range than they were last season and have been far less efficient on put-backs and in transition which have all played a role in their offensive decline this season.
Miami Heat
The Heat have been a model of consistency under coach Erik Spoelstra and continue to do a lot of the things that they did well last season, generating a high rate of corner threes, and ranking in the top-10 in both offensive and defensive turnover percentage.
One of the biggest differences compared to last season’s team is that the Heat have struggled to contain their opponents on the offensive glass this season — ranking 20th in defensive rebounding percentage and 23rd in opponent second-chance points this season after ranking third and seventh in those respective categories last season.
Chicago Bulls
The Chicago Bulls are a very peculiar team, with the two players they attempted to trade this summer in order to kickstart a rebuild (Zach Lavine and Nikola Vucevic) also being their top two leading scorers in the early going — and they’ve been doing it efficiently too! Lavine is averaging 23.4 points on an impressive 64.4% eFG%, while Vucevic is averaging 20.7 points on an even-more-impressive 65.5% eFG%.
As a team, the Bulls rank in the bottom-10 in both offensive and defensive rating, with their inability to finish at the rim hurting their offensive efficiency (24th in restricted area FG%) and their inability to protect the paint negatively impacting their defensive rating (last in opponent paint points per game).
Brooklyn Nets
The Nets have been one of the biggest surprises of the season so far and have been far more impressive than their 5-7 record suggests. They’ve faced one of the toughest schedules in the league thus far, and have had teams like Denver, Cleveland and Boston on the ropes, before eventually letting go off the ‘rope’ late in those games (all three games resulted in losses for the Nets).
The Nets are buying into new head-coach Jordi Fernandez’s offensive philosophies, and they rank fifth in the NBA in three-point attempt rate. Denis Schroder is shooting 46.2% from three on 6.5 attempts per game. Ben Simmons is looking a little bit more like himself again. Cam Thomas is a ridiculous shot-maker. This is a fun basketball team.
Detroit Pistons
The Pistons have long been the laughing stock of the NBA, but under the direction of new head coach, JB Bickerstaff, they’ve quietly been one of the scrappier teams in the league in the early going. They’ve won four out of their last seven games, and rank in the top half of the league in defensive rating which — should it hold for the rest of season — would be the first time since the 2018-19 season that they have an above-average defensive rating.
On offense, it’s been a struggle for Detroit. They rank 28th in turnover percentage, don’t get to the free throw line very often, and rank in the bottom half of the league in three-point attempt rate and three-point accuracy.
Atlanta Hawks
See above, here, here or here!
Tier IV: The ‘Nobody Wants To Be Here’ Tier
Milwaukee Bucks
Onto the tier of disappointment. The Milwaukee Bucks have clearly not met expectations in year two of the Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo partnership. It’s early of course, but the Bucks’ offensive rating (which ranked sixth last year) has fallen off a cliff, and they’re scoring 7.3 fewer points per 100 possessions than they were last season.
After his herculean, 59 point, 14 rebound, seven assist performance in Wednesday night’s overtime victory over Detroit, Giannis is averaging 33.3 points, 12.1 rebounds and 5.5 assists on the season. Lillard missed the Pistons game but is averaging 26 points and 6.6 assists while shooting 34.8% from three on 9.2 attempts per game. Khris Middleton should be returning from injury soon, but even so, they need more production from the rest of their roster.
It’s only been 12 games, but the clock is ticking for Doc Rivers to find a winning formula in Milwaukee.
Philadelphia 76ers
It’s been a rough going for 76ers fans, who finally got to see Joel Embiid suit up against the Knicks this week but will have to wait a little longer to see their star trio of Tyrese Maxey, Paul George and Embiid share the court together after Maxey suffered a hamstring strain last week.
After missing the start of the season with a hyperextended left knee, Paul George shot just 38.9% from the floor in his first four games in his new threads, but he finally looked like his usual self on Tuesday, pouring in 29 points on just 19 shots (shooting 7-for-11 from three). With Embiid not planning to play in back-to-backs this season, they’ll need George to be at his best going forwards in order to steady the ship.
Tier V: The ‘Sadness’ Tier
Charlotte Hornets
With Lamelo Ball, the league leader in three-point attempts per game, on the roster, the Charlotte Hornets will not lack for entertainment value. Yet, despite Ball’s heroics (averaging 29.9 points, 6.3 assists and 1.4 steals per-game), the Hornets are still a ways away from being a serious basketball team.
On offense, they rank second in the league in three-point attempt rate (drawing from new head coach, Charles Lee’s experience with the Celtics) but are just 19th in accuracy, and turn the ball over at the fifth highest rate in the league.
Defensively, though they rank 15th in defensive rating early on, they are benefiting from a bit of shooting luck, as opponent’s are shooting just 33.4% from three against them (the fourth lowest mark in the league thus far) despite the fact that Charlotte is conceding ‘wide-open’ three-point attempts at the 10th highest rate in the league this season.
Toronto Raptors
It’s been tough sledding for the Toronto Raptors this season, who rank 20th in offensive rating and 28th in defensive rating in the early going.
They’ve been without Scottie Barnes and Immanuel Quickley for the entire month of November, and it’s clear that RJ Barrett is being overtasked as the top offensive option — averaging 18 points on ghastly shooting splits (34.5% from the floor on 18 shots a game, and 22.5% from three on 6.7 attempts per game) over the last six games.
The Raptors rank dead last in the league in both fouls per game, and opponent free throw rate.
Washington Wizards
The Wizards are in full-on rebuild mode, and it’s shown early on. Through their first 10 games of the season, they are 27th in offensive rating, dead last in defensive rating, and are the only Eastern Conference team to rank in the bottom-half of the league in all of the ‘Four-Factors’ categories.
Their only two wins of the season have come against the Atlanta Hawks, and they’ll have a chance to pick up their third win against their favorite opponent tonight on the road.
Note: All statistics/video used in this article are from basketballreference.com, bball-index.com, nba.com/stats, cleaningtheglass.com, and/or dunksandthrees.com