Four losses in a row — what’s gone wrong for the Hawks?

Today, we (unfortunately) analyze the losing streak

After picking up three consecutive wins during the week of January 12th (capped off by an impressive road victory over the defending champions in Boston last Saturday), the Atlanta Hawks took a nosedive last week, dropping their last four games against the New York Knicks, Detroit Pistons and Toronto Raptors (twice) which pulled their record back down below the ‘.500’ mark for the first time since their loss to the Memphis Grizzlies on December 21st.

Though there were glimpses of quality* in all four of their losses this week, one particularly frustrating theme seen throughout all of them was that each game featured a quarter where the Hawks were outscored by 10 points or more. This was a margin that would ultimately prove to be insurmountable seeing as they lost three out of the four contests by 10 points or less — with the lone exception being their most recent defeat to Toronto on Saturday.

*I’ll be the first to admit that these glimpses have indeed been few and far between, though I’d like to shout out the recent play of Vit Krejci and Dyson Daniels, who have both put forth strong efforts this week.

Last Monday against the Knicks, Atlanta got off to a strong start and led by eight at the halftime break before things went awry in the third quarter. The Hawks were outscored 40-27 in the period and were unable to recover in the final frame, eventually losing the contest 119-110.

Against the Pistons on Wednesday, a sluggish start put Atlanta in a 10-point hole at the end of the first quarter — a deficit that grew to 18 by the end of the first half. The Hawks would lose that one 114-104 even though they outscored Detroit by 12 in the fourth quarter.

The very next day against Toronto, the Hawks got off to another slow start, trailing by 10 points (again) at the end of the opening frame (and by as many as 17 early in the second quarter). Despite digging themselves into an early hole, the team showed their resolve and clawed their way back to take a six-point lead with under five minutes left to play… before the offense went cold down the stretch, tanking their comeback bid. The Hawks would go on to lose 122-119.

Finally, on Saturday in their rematch against the Raptors, after building up a five-point lead at the end of the first quarter, the Hawks gave the game right back to the visitors in the second, losing the next 12 minutes 33-21 while shooting just 8-for-25 (32%) from the field (including 3-for-11 from three) and allowing Toronto to shoot 12-for-22 (54.5%) from the floor (including 5-for-10 from three). A shaky third quarter saw the Hawks down by 16 heading into the final period and by the time the buzzer sounded, they found themselves on the wrong end of a lopsided 117-94 defeat.

While this week certainly taught us that consistency over the course of the entire game is something that the team needs to prioritize going forwards, it would, of course, be irresponsible to pin the current losing streak entirely on the four quarters of basketball highlighted above.

Problems in the Paint — on offense and defense

Something that’s been troubling the Hawks for over a month now, and continued to be a problem for the team last week, was that they had trouble defending the interior, allowing 58, 54, 68 and 54 points in the paint to New York, Detroit, Toronto, and Toronto again respectively*, with a whopping 38.8% of their opponent’s field goal attempts coming at the rim** over this stretch, per pbpstats.

*For reference, Chicago ranks dead last in paint points allowed this season at 55.7, so these are some not-so-great opponent paint scoring numbers

**For reference, the Pelicans rank dead last in opponent rim frequency, with 34% of their opponent’s field goal attempts coming from within 4-feet this season, so the fact that the Hawks’ are allowing nearly 40% of their opponent’s attempts to come from within 4-feet (the area on the court with the highest points per shot value) over their last four games is obviously a concern.

Additionally, while their opponents have found little resistance attacking them on the inside (shooting a staggering 69.4% at the rim over the past four games), the Hawks themselves have really struggled to score from this area of the floor, shooting just 54.9% at the rim over their last four games — nearly 10% lower than their season-long rim field goal percentage of 64% (which ranks just 23rd in the NBA this season).

It’s little surprise that Atlanta’s shaky efficiency at the rim has especially hurt their offense when they suffer an off shooting night from the perimeter as evidenced by their eye-watering 86.2 offensive rating in Saturday’s game against Toronto* and 96.3 offensive rating in Wednesday’s game against Detroit**. Both of those were miles below their season-long offensive rating of 110.8 (which ranks just 21st in the NBA this season).

*in which Atlanta shot just 11-for-37 (29.7%) from three

**in which Atlanta shot a disastrous 6-for-38 (15.8%) from three

Ice (Cold) Trae

Speaking of Atlanta’s offense, it’s been an extremely rough week for Trae Young who was truly playing at an All-Star level from December through (most of) January, averaging 25.3 points on 41.5% shooting from the field and 36% from three (8.9 three-point attempts per game), to go along with 11.6 assists, 3.9 turnovers and 1.3 steals per game between December 1st and January 19th*.

*Young appeared in 18 out of a possible 20 games (with the Hawks winning 12 out of their 20 games) over this span

While his boxscore stats from Monday’s game against the Knicks (27 points on 8-for-22 shooting, six assists, three steals) weren’t too shabby, it was not one of his better games this season as he shot just 2-for-10 from inside the arc and coughed the ball up nine times — his third highest turnover total in a single game this season.

Since the team returned home, Young’s struggles haven’t dissipated over the last three games. He hasn’t looked quite as aggressive on either end of the court, and he has posted per game averages of just 15.7 points on 38.6% shooting from the field and 25% from three (5.3 3PA’s per game), 8.7 assists, 6.3 turnovers*, and 0.7 steals over his last three contests.

*Young dished out just four assists (breaking his streak of consecutive games played with five-plus assists) and racked up 11 turnovers on Saturday night alone — and I wouldn’t be shocked if he misses one of the next two games to nurse his nagging Achilles injury.

[Editor’s note]

Trae Young will indeed miss the Monday contest against the Timberwolves.

On Saturday night, while Young’s on-ball possessions weren’t up to his usual standards, I was more bothered by his lack of aggression without the ball.

On this possession in the first quarter, Dyson Daniels kicks the ball out to Vit Krejci at the top of the arc with ten seconds on the shot clock. Vit looks to Young*, realizes that he won’t be getting any help from his point guard on this possession, and, with the shot clock running down, settles for a contested floater over Gradey Dick. Krejci’s shot is off target, and this is an empty possession for the Hawks.

*Who stands as still as a statue

At the start of the third quarter, notice how Trae’s positioning in the middle of the court blocks off Krejci’s driving lane and completely throws off this possession for the offense with the shot clock running out. This, to me, is an inexcusable possession — and one that is not in line with how Young has played for most of the season.

Hawks fans were overjoyed to see Trae grow more accustomed to moving without the ball at the beginning of the season, however over the past few games, it seems like we’ve seen him fall back into some of his old habits. I don’t mean to state the obvious here, but for this team to recapture some of the success they had during the first half of the season, they need their leader to play much better than he has as of late.

What Young does without the ball in his hands will be something to watch over the next stretch of games.

Points Off Turnovers

Another concerning trend from the last four defeats for Atlanta has been the rise in the number of points that they have conceded off of turnovers.

This has been an issue that has plagued the team all season* and is something that has unfortunately gotten worse over the past four defeats — with Atlanta turning the ball over 19.3 times per game, and allowing 25 points off turnovers per game over this stretch.

*Through the first 41 games of the season, the Hawks averaged 15.9 turnovers per game (23rd), and allowed 20.1 points off of turnovers (25th).

Both of these marks would rank dead last in the league if we compare them to the season-long averages for the other teams in the league — with Utah ranking last in both turnovers committed (17.9) and points allowed off turnovers (22) per game on the season — and it’s evident that over the these turnovers are not only hurting their offense, but their defense as well.

Looking at where these turnovers are coming from, while nearly all of the rotation players (with the exception of Vit Krejci*) have seen their turnover percentage rise over the last four games, nobody’s turnover percentage has increased by as much as Trae Young’s has — he’s turned the ball over on over 20% of his offensive possessions over this stretch after posting an 11.8% turnover percentage through the first half of the season.

*Who has only turned the ball over once over the last four games. As always, shoutout Vit.

Cutting down on their turnovers will play an important role in getting this team back on track.

Injury Woes

Last not but least, I’d be remiss if I didn’t also mention the injury problems that have affected the team recently.

As you can see from the table above, all of Atlanta’s top-nine players (when sorted by minutes per game) have missed time over the past few weeks. And just when it looked like the team was beginning to get healthy, disaster struck on Thursday night when Jalen Johnson — one of just five players (and the only American*) averaging at least 18 points, 10 rebounds and 5 assists this season — exited the contest early in the second quarter clutching at his left shoulder.

*Fun fact: Domantas Sabonis was in fact born in Portland, Oregon (his father, Arvydas Sabonis, is one of the great players in Trail Blazers history) however his family moved to Málaga, Spain when he was just seven years old, and he represents the Lithuanian national team in international competitions.

A vague (to say the least) injury report provided by the team on Saturday didn’t do much to assuage fans’ concerns about Johnson, and I’m sure that everyone with a vested interest in the team’s success will be waiting with bated breath for the next update on his health.

Johnson isn’t the only Hawks’ forward whose name has been listed on the injury report. De’Andre Hunter missed Saturday’s game with an illness and no. 1 overall pick Zaccharie Risacher has missed the last six outings with a left adductor strain.

While Hunter should return to action imminently, Risacher’s status was upgraded to “questionable” yesterday, so it appears that the rookie could make his return as soon as tonight as well. Given the murkiness surrounding the injury to Johnson, both players’ health should be even more of a priority for Atlanta going forwards given how thin they are at the ‘4’ position.

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After a tough week last week, the Atlanta Hawks will have a chance to get back to winning ways tonight against the Minnesota Timberwolves, a team they beat 117-104 back on December 23rd.

Obviously, getting everyone healthy will be a big factor in their success in their next game and for the rest of the season, but on the basketball court it’s imperative for them to do a better job defending the paint, converting their attempts at the rim and taking care of the basketball.

If they can accomplish these things, it shouldn’t be long before we see these Hawks take flight once again.

All statistics/videos used in this article are from cleaningtheglass.com, pbpstats.com, nba.com/stats, bball-index.com, or dunksandthrees.com