What the Hawks need to do to keep their season alive.
The Atlanta Hawks are all set to host the Miami Heat tonight in a “do or die” Play-In game, with both teams fighting to keep their respective seasons alive.
These two Southeast Division rivals are familiar foes, and tonight marks the third time in the past four seasons that they’ve faced each other in the postseason. In 2022, they squared off in the first round of the Playoffs, with the Heat brushing aside the Hawks 4-1 en route to a Conference Finals appearance. In 2023, they met in the Play-In, with Atlanta beating Miami 116-105 in the ‘7/8 game’.
The winner of tonight’s contest claims the final spot Eastern Conference Playoffs and will go on to face the top-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers in round one*. The loser, however, will be relegated to watching the remainder of the postseason from a tropical destination of their choice (I hear Cancún is nice this time of year).
*Game 1 of which would tip-off this Sunday at 7PM EST
Ahead of tonight’s pivotal matchup, here are four keys to victory for the Atlanta Hawks.
Miami Heat Overview
If you’re interested, I included a brief statistical overview on the Heat here. These are their season long ranks in a few key categories.
#1) Play Fast!
One of the biggest differences between these two sides is the speed at which each prefers to operate.
The Hawks like to play fast and pounce on early scoring opportunities in transition, ranking third in the league in pace and first in transition frequency* (17.5%) during the regular season. Meanwhile the Heat prefer to slow it down and play in the halfcourt, ranking 27th in the league in pace and 26th in transition frequency (13.5%)**.
*From cleaningtheglass, this is the percentage of their possessions that begin with a transition play.
**The Heat also ranked 27th in offensive rebounding percentage, exemplifying their commitment to transition defense.
For Atlanta, given their miserable offensive showing against Orlando on Tuesday* – a game that was played at the second-slowest pace the Hawks have played at this season – it would be a good idea to make an effort to push the pace and try to play faster against Miami tonight.
*The Hawks scored just 95 points, posted their fourth-lowest transition frequency of the season (9.2%) and scored just 0.86 ppp in the half-court.
This is, of course, easier said than done.
While Miami’s defense might not have been as stout as Orlando’s second-ranked defense this season, the Heat still finished the season as a top-ten defensive unit and – coached by Erik Spoelstra – are no slouches on the less glamorous end of the floor.
Per cleaningtheglass, they allow just 0.96 points per possession in the halfcourt* and do their best to keep their opponents out of transition, committing live-ball turnovers at the second-lowest rate in the league and prioritizing setting their defense over crashing the offensive glass, ranking 27th in offensive rebounding percentage.
*The ninth-best mark in the NBA this season, per CTG
That being said, when Miami’s opponents do manage to get out and run on them, they have proven to be vulnerable, as their transition defensive rating (129.7) was the fifth-worst in the league this season.
Atlanta has ranked sixth in offensive rating since the trade deadline, and their affinity to get out in transition has been a big part of their offensive play style all season. For them to be successful tonight, it’s going to be critical for them to get back to playing their brand of basketball, and try and hunt these early shot clock looks before the Miami defense gets set.
If their transition offense gets stifled like it did against the Magic, it’s going to be much tougher to win this game on Miami’s terms.
#2) Keep the Turnovers at a Minimum
Turnovers have been an issue for Atlanta in their last three regular season matchups against the Heat, and while I believe it’s important for the Hawks to push the pace in tonight’s contest, it’s important for them not to sacrifice their ball security in order to do so.
The Hawks ranked 22nd in turnover percentage during the regular season, committing a turnover on 14.9% of their offensive possessions, and in their last three games against Miami* they’ve committed a turnover on 17.7% of their offensive possessions.
*All of which took place after the All-Star break
While a three percentage-point increase from their season-long average might not seem all that significant, it’s certainly not ideal, and given that Miami finished in the bottom ten in offensive rating, I believe it’s important not to gift wrap them easy opportunities, keep them out of a rhythm and make them work for every basket they get.
When the Heat get hot against Atlanta, they’ve shown a tendency to stay hot – as evidenced by them shooting better than 50% from three in their last two meetings (both Miami wins). The Hawks can’t do them any favors by committing self-inflicted wounds.
The Heat have averaged just over 20 points off turnovers in their last three games against Atlanta, up from their season-long average of 16.4. If the Hawks can keep this number under 15, I think they’ll be in good shape.
#3) Win the Young/Niang Minutes
Since the Hawks acquired Georges Niang at the trade deadline, he and Trae Young have formed a formidable partnership on the offensive end. Young loves playing alongside high-volume three-point snipers, and Niang, who has shot a blistering 41.3% from the perimeter on over 10-attempts per 36 minutes as a member of the Hawks, clearly fits the bill.
Per cleaningtheglass, lineups with both Young and Niang have scored 127.5 points per 100 possessions this season – a mark which ranks in the 99th percentile (!) amongst all five-man units this season (min. 100 possessions). That being said, as a result of this duo’s defensive deficiencies*, these lineups’ also concede 124.1 points per 100 possessions – a mark which ranks in just the fourth percentile amongst all five-man lineups this season.
*Georges Niang ranks in the 4th percentile amongst all players in dunksandthrees’ D-EPM this season. Trae Young ranks in the 3rd percentile.
Given how many points these lineups both score and allow, in small sample sizes on a game-to-game basis, I sometimes think of the Young/Niang groups ‘boom or bust’ lineups. Though the offensive upside is tantalizing, the defensive downside is just as worrying – as Atlanta learned on Tuesday.
Against Orlando, Young and Niang shared the court for 17:40, and were outscored by 16 points in those minutes. On offense, they scored 1.05 points-per-possession, and on defense, they conceded 1.49 points-per-possession. Niang shot 5-for-11 from the floor, but went just 1-for-4 from the perimeter.
Obviously, these lineups weren’t the only reason that they lost the game. Every Hawks’ player apart from Mouhamed Gueye had a game to forget. However, teams ruthlessly hunting and exploiting mismatches is a staple of postseason basketball, and when Young and Niang are out on the floor, opposing teams have two juicy options to target when Atlanta are on defense. If they can’t make up for it on the offense end, the Hawks are in trouble.
As I mentioned above, these two are talented enough on offense to light up the scoreboard, and tonight, it’s going to be imperative for them to come through. A repeat of what we saw on Tuesday from the Young/Niang lineups could be the nail in the coffin for Atlanta.
One nugget from the lineup data that works in Atlanta’s favor is that lineups with Young, Niang and Okongwu have actually been decent defensively, posting a 114.5 defensive rating (55th percentile) in just over 500 possessions together while also posting a blistering 133.3 offensive rating in those minutes.
I’d be shocked if Snyder doesn’t tap into this three-man lineup combo more often tonight.
#4) Contain Miami’s Guards
This one is a bit of a ‘captain obvious’ statement after Tyler Herro dropped *checks notes* 38 points on 19 shots (including going a perfect 8-for-8 from the field in the first half) to propel Miami to victory against the Chicago Bulls on Wednesday night, but with Jimmy Butler now hooping on the West coast, Herro is the head of the snake for the Miami Heat offense and for Atlanta, it’s going to be crucial to make his life as tough as possible in order to throw a wrench into Miami’s offensive gameplan.
Fortunately, the Hawks have the man for the job in DPOY contender and MIP front-runner, Dyson Daniels, and watching the battle between these two tonight is going to be absolute cinema.
While Herro is obviously the main man, another player to be wary of is Davion Mitchell, who has been playing like a new man ever since being acquired by Miami at this year’s trade deadline. In 31 games with the Heat this season, Mitchell is averaging 10.3 points and 5.3 assists on impressive 50/45/70 shooting splits, yet he seems to play with an extra spring in his step when going against the Hawks.
Over his last two games against the Hawks, Mitchell is averaging 18 points, six assists, 1.5 steals and a turnover in 36 minutes of playing time while shooting a ridiculous 13-for-20 from the floor, including 9-for-10 (!) from three!
Seeing as Atlanta were just torched by an undersized guard earlier this week, with Cole Anthony exploding for 26 points and six assists off the bench in their loss to Orlando, the Hawks would be foolish to underestimate Mitchell.
Outside of their guards, Miami don’t have a ton of offensive firepower. Bam Adebayo has been operating further away from the hoop this season and has struggled with his efficiency. Andrew Wiggins, who the Heat got in return for Butler, has dealt with injuries and still hasn’t completely found his groove in his new threads.
Atlanta has been slightly worse on defense since the trade deadline, ranking 20th in defensive rating over this span, so regardless of their opponent, they still need to work for everything they get on the less glamorous end of the floor.
Tonight, stopping Miami’s guards should be at the top of the priority list.
No matter what way you look at it, the Atlanta Hawks have overachieved this season. They lost their second best player (Jalen Johnson) midway through the season. Their second-best ‘5’ (Clint Capela) hasn’t played since March 10th. They traded away a Sixth Man of the Year candidate in De’Andre Hunter, as well as a highly-valued veteran leader in Bogdan Bogdanovic, and have worked hard to incorporate the new additions since the trade deadline.
It hasn’t been perfect. It hasn’t always been pretty. But despite all of it, the Hawks topped their preseason over/under wins projection (36.5) and tonight, have a shot to secure a postseason berth on their home court in front of their fans.
For a young team, still building chemistry with another, games like tonight are what it’s all about. Win or lose.
This season has been one heck of a journey — let’s hope there are still a few more stops left on this ride.
All statistics used in this article are from cleaningtheglass, dunksandthrees, pbpstats, nba.com/stats, or bball-index.com.