A few musings on Atlanta’s recent play.
With five weeks left in the 2024-25 regular season, the Atlanta Hawks are 30-34, with the team holding a slender, half-game edge over both Miami and Orlando for the 7-seed in the Eastern Conference standings and sitting five games behind Detroit, who currently* hold the 6-seed.
*as of Sunday afternoon
Yet, while postseason basketball is all but guaranteed for Atlanta*, I don’t believe the goal over their next 18 games should merely be to secure a shot at the 7-seed in the Eastern Conference Playoffs.
*Philadelphia, the 11-seed, have lost nine of their last ten games and sit eight games behind Atlanta in the Eastern Conference standings.
Though Detroit’s five-game lead on Atlanta is nothing to scoff at, the Hawks face the league’s third-easiest remaining schedule, while Detroit’s remaining schedule ranks 16th. If a couple of results go their way, who’s to say that the Hawks can’t make things interesting over the final few weeks of the regular season?
This team has played some better basketball as of late, with new additions Caris LeVert, Georges Niang and Terance Mann looking increasingly more comfortable in their new surroundings, and their favorable remaining schedule gives them a golden opportunity to heat up in time for the postseason.
If the Hawks do manage to claw themselves into the 6-seed, not only will they skip out on the Play-In tournament entirely and earn a few more days of rest (i.e. some extra time to scout, as far as the coaching staff/scouting department is concerned) before the Playoffs begin, but they will also have a much better chance of pulling off a first-round upset by avoiding a matchup against Cleveland or Boston — two teams that rank second and third in net-rating respectively, this season and are likely to occupy the top-two spots in the East by the end of the regular season.
While Atlanta finishing sixth, seventh or eighth, is not going to have a drastic impact on their Finals odds for this season (sorry, but the Hawks are not going to win it all this year), for a relatively young team that is still building chemistry and discovering the scope of their abilities, playing in a competitive first-round series is something that could be really beneficial towards their long-term development together. And given that Cleveland and Boston are simply on a different level than the other team’s in the East this season, I don’t know how competitive a potential series against one of them would be.
Of course, the Playoffs are about playing the hand that you’re dealt, and for a team like the Hawks, any postseason experience is good experience. But still, I’d prefer to put off a matchup against one of the Eastern Conference’s juggernaut’s for as long as possible. It seems like their best chance of doing that is by stealing the 6-seed from Detroit.
Now, without further ado, here are a few observations and interesting statistics on the post-trade deadline Atlanta Hawks!
Finding Their Shooting Touch
Prior to the trade deadline, the Hawks were shooting just 34.6% from three-point range, a bottom-six mark in the league, however in the 13 games since, their three-point percentage has jumped up to 37.3%, ninth in the league over that span and a mark that would rank sixth on the season.
Looking at the individual players’ three-point numbers above, you can see that while Trae Young’s efficiency is down, his teammates have picked up the slack over the past few weeks.
Georges Niang is shooting 40.5% on 7.2 attempts per game, Caris LeVert is shooting 34.8% on 5.5 attempts per game, Zaccharie Risacher is shooting 47.3% on 4.2 attempts per game, and Terance Mann is shooting 48.6% on 2.9 attempts per game. Even Dyson Daniels, whose outside shot is still a work in progress, has shot 12-for-23 (52.2%) from beyond the arc over this stretch. Everyone is eating.
As we discussed a few weeks ago, the Hawks (led by Trae Young) have been generating high-quality three-point looks all season long — ranking sixth in “wide-open” three-point attempts per game this season. Yet, while they ranked just 27th in “wide-open” three-point accuracy (36.9%) prior to the trade deadline, they’ve ranked first (!!) in this category since then, shooting a blistering 45.1% on their “wide-open” threes while generating the same number of attempts per game.
Atlanta’s improved efficiency from the outside has been a major factor in their offensive rating soaring from 110.7 (23rd) to 116.9 (10th) since the trade deadline, and it’s been refreshing seeing them knock down their open looks at such an efficient clip.
Now, if Trae Young’s pull-up threes begin to fall, this offense is going to be downright scary.
Taking Care of the Basketball
While Atlanta’s improved three-point shooting has undoubtedly had a positive impact on their offensive rating, something else that’s been a welcome sight for their offense has been the improvement in ball security, with Atlanta committing 13.8 turnovers per game (16th) since the All-Star break after committing 16.2 turnovers per game (28th) prior to it.
Looking at the two tables above, you can see that while Young’s turnover rate has held steady, new additions Caris LeVert, Georges Niang, and Terance Mann, have all been far less mistake-prone than De’Andre Hunter, Jalen Johnson and Bogdan Bogdanovic, the players who they effectively replaced in Atlanta’s rotation.
Additionally, although 2.4 fewer turnovers per game may sound like a trivial amount, this improvement has helped Atlanta improve from 28th to 12th in opponent points off turnovers (per game), with the Hawks giving up 20.4 points off turnovers per game prior to the trade deadline relative to 16.4 points off of turnovers since then.
Per cleaningtheglass (CTG), Atlanta’s half-court defense has been slightly worse, they’ve fouled more, and they have continued to get obliterated by their opponent’s from the perimeter over their past 13 games, resulting in a higher (worse) defensive rating for the team since the deadline*.
*Atlanta’s ranked 16th in defensive rating (113.7) prior to the All-Star Break, and have ranked 22nd in defensive rating (117.3) since then.
However, given that the league-average transition possession (1.25 points per possession (PPP), per CTG) is far more efficient than the league-average halfcourt possession (0.98 PPP), turning the ball over less and conceding fewer transition opportunities to the opposition can only mean good things for the Hawks’ defense.
Controlling their turnover rate and forcing their opponents to play in the halfcourt as often as possible will be important areas to watch the rest of the way.
Okay, Onyeka!
Lastly, I’d like to take a moment to highlight the recent play of Onyeka Okongwu.
After serving as Clint Capela’s primary backup for the first four and a half seasons of his career, the Hawks finally elevated Okongwu into the starting lineup back on January 20th. While it took him a few games to get comfortable in his new role, since February 1st, he’s been absolutely fantastic, averaging 15.1 points, 10.3 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 2.1 ‘stocks’*, and only 2.6 fouls (!) per game, playing nearly 31 minutes a night.
*Steals + Blocks
While Okongwu’s playmaking prowess has been a welcome addition to the starting five, and his emerging chemistry with both Trae Young and Dyson Daniels has been really fun to watch, what’s really stood out has been his scoring touch around the basket.
Per pbpstats, since the beginning of February, Okongwu is shooting a blistering 75.6% at the rim on 5.5 attempts per game. Only seven players have made more field goals at the rim than him over this stretch, and Okongwu has a better rim field goal percentage than all but three of them (Evan Mobley, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Christian Braun).
While Trae Young deserves some credit for gifting Okongwu a few more looks like the one on the possession below, it’s notable that Clint Capela was shooting just 63.2% at the rim while serving as the starting center, so it’s clear that Okongwu has been the more efficient interior scorer of the two.
Additionally, Okongwu has shot a ridiculous 59.5% from floater range (on 2.8 attempts per game) over this stretch, which ranks fifth (!!) out of the 152 players who have attempted at least two floaters a game since February 1st, per pbpstats, and his ability to reliably knock down shots like he does on the possession has been a big differentiator between him and Capela as well.
Still, while Okongwu’s efficiency as a scorer has popped in recent weeks, it’s the “other stuff” that impresses head coach Quin Snyder.
He racked up 16 points, 16 rebounds, three blocks, three steals and held his own in the paint down the stretch in Atlanta’s two-point victory over the Pacers on Saturday night, and after the game, Snyder singled him out as the team’s best clutch player in the contest:
“I think the best player we had tonight in the clutch was Onyeka. He got every rebound, made every play, and sometimes those plays aren’t as noticeable as someone who makes a bucket.”
Okongwu still has room to grow, particularly in his ability to defend the rim with opponent’s shooting 68.4% at the rim when he is on the floor per cleaningtheglass, a mark which ranks in just the 25th percentile relative to other players this season, however the progress he’s shown over the past five weeks has been wonderful to see.
If he can sustain this level of play going forwards, the four-year, $62 million extension he signed prior to last season is going to look like a steal. Let’s hope he continues to progress in the right direction.
All statistics/videos used in this article are from cleaningtheglass.com, pbpstats.com, nba.com/stats, bball-index.com, or dunksandthrees.com