A few late-season thoughts on Trae Young, Mo Gueye, and Dyson Daniels.
As the NBA’s regular season comes to a close, the Atlanta Hawks (37-41) are en route to their fourth Play-In Tournament appearance in as many seasons – currently sitting in eighth place in the Eastern Conference standings.
With just three games separating the 7-seed (Orlando) from the 10-seed (Miami) the results of Atlanta’s next four games will not only determine who they will face in the Play-In, but also the location of their Play-In matchup(s), as well as the number of games they will be required to win in the Play-In Tournament in order to qualify for the Playoffs – and a matchup against one of the Eastern Conference’s goliaths in Cleveland or Boston.
While I’ll be delving into the finer points of the postseason matchups as the Playoff picture becomes a little clearer, I thought I’d take some time today to dive into a few intriguing Hawks’ storylines ahead of the postseason. Let’s get into it.
48.6% – Trae Young’s eFG%
Trae Young’s offensive talent is indisputable, and this season he has cemented his status as an ‘All-World’ passing virtuoso – leading the league with 11.6 assists per game. His 45% assist percentage* ranks no. 1 in the league and is the fourth highest mark posted by an NBA player in the last five seasons.
*The percentage of teammates’ field goals that a player assists during their time on the floor. Only ‘21 Russell Westbrook, ‘22 Luka Doncic, and ‘23 Tyrese Haliburton have posted higher assist percentages in the past five seasons.
That being said, for a player who entered the league with a reputation as a dynamite scorer, who averaged nearly 30 points per game as a 21 year-old in his second season in the NBA, the degree to which he’s struggled with his scoring efficiency in year seven cannot be ignored, and to me, it’s one of the biggest question marks regarding his long term value as an undersized, offense-first guard.
This season, as you can see in the table below, Young’s effective field goal percentage (or eFG%, 48.6%) ranks dead last amongst the NBA’s high-volume shooters*.
*Players that have taken at least 17 attempts per game this season
His three-point percentage (33.7%) is tied for last amongst the players who have taken at least 500 threes. However the bigger reason behind his mediocre scoring efficiency is that he is shooting just 47.1% on twos this season — a career-low — and a mark that ranks in just the 30th percentile amongst point guards this season, per cleaningtheglass.
The two charts below are from dunksandthrees.com, and they display Young’s field goal percentage and attempts per 75 on both mid-range and rim attempts* over the course of his career.
*dunksandthrees.com defines rim-attempts as attempts within 5-feet, mid-range attempts are all other two-point attempts.
As you can see, while Young’s mid-range FG% is still a few ticks higher than the league-average, he is no longer converting these looks at the elite rate that he was back in 2022. And with these shots netting the Hawks fewer than 0.90 points per attempt over last two seasons, his efficiency no longer justifies the volume of attempts he takes from this area of the floor.
Another glaring concern that jumps out from the charts above is the degree to which Young has struggled to both generate and convert shots at the rim (layups!) since 2022.
In 2023, while Young was taking roughly five rim-attempts per 75 possessions, his 49.9% conversion rate on these looks was one of the worst marks in the entire league. Last season, Young’s rim-frequency decreased dramatically to 3.3 attempts per 75, and though his efficiency did improve, his 54.8% conversion rate still ranked in just the 14th percentile amongst all players, per dunksandthrees.
This season, Young hasn’t fared any better, taking just 3.4 rim-attempts per 75 while converting them at a miserable 51.7% clip – the fourth-lowest mark amongst players who have appeared in at least 25 games and average at least 30 minutes per game* this season, per dunksandthrees.
*97 players in this subset – only LaMelo Ball, Fred VanVleet, and Jerami Grant have fared worse at the rim this season.
Young’s struggles from inside the arc are a big part of the reason his isolation scoring numbers have fallen so dramatically – as you can see in the table below.
So what’s going on?
There is no obvious answer, but one potential explanation could be that Young is not 100% healthy. The Hawks have listed him as “probable” ahead of virtually every game* this season due to ‘right Achilles tendonitis’, and given his abnormally poor isolation numbers, there’s a chance that this injury is more serious than it appears.
*Ever since the team got fined for not listing him on the injury report prior to missing an NBA Cup game against Boston back in early November.
That being said, if this theory holds true, and it turns out this injury has in fact handicapped him to such an extent this season, it then begs the question: why haven’t the Hawks chosen to rest him more?
Young has played in all but five games this season, and even so, those five games were one-off absences, not an extended break. At no point were the Hawks competing for a championship this season. If their star player is truly hurt, then the rational thing to do would be to grant him some rest, and prioritize his long-term health for when it really matters — particularly if the injury is affecting his on-court production.
It would be foolish to assume that the Hawks coaching/medical staff are irrational people, which is why I’m skeptical that Young’s Achilles is exclusively to blame for his struggles this season – however if it’s not the injury, what else could it be?
The league has made an effort to crack down on embellishment over the past three seasons, a change that’s made it more difficult for Young – who clocks in at just 6-foot-1, 164 pounds* – to score in the lane. Could this be the reason for his struggles?
*Only rookies, Yuki Kawamura and AJ Johnson weigh less according to nba.com/stats
Though he is still getting to the line at one of the highest rates in the league*, as I’ve covered above, Young’s two point shooting has fallen off over the past three seasons.
*Young’s 7.3 free-throw attempts per game rank seventh in the NBA
If this decline is due to the rule changes, is there anything he can do to improve his efficiency? Or is this just who he is as a scorer at this stage of his career? The evidence would suggest the latter — which is a concern for Atlanta.
Young is still the heartbeat of Atlanta’s offense, and despite his less than desirable shooting numbers, remains one of the league’s most dangerous offensive weapons. It’s a credit to his immense talent as a playmaker.
That being said, this season has shown us that he is no longer as dominant of a scorer as he once was, and for him to get back to the peak of his powers, he simply has to become more efficient from all three levels of the floor.
Given how shaky he’s been from inside the arc in recent years, perhaps it would be beneficial for Young to spend more time working on his three-ball instead.
105.7 – Hawks D-Rtg with Mo Gueye on the court this season
At 6’10”, 210 pounds, with truly spectacular instincts on the defensive side of the ball, few players on the Atlanta Hawks’ roster have a higher ceiling than second year big, Mouhamed Gueye.
Gueye spent the majority of the pre-trade deadline portion of the season in the G League, however since then, over the team’s last 27 games, he’s averaged nearly 16 minutes of action in 24 appearances, while surprisingly serving as a starter in 22 of those contests.
While Gueye’s offense is still a work in progress, there’s no question about his ability to defend at the NBA level. Per cleaningtheglass, Gueye’s steal percentage (2.2%) this season ranks in the 97th percentile amongst all bigs while his block percentage (3.4%) ranks in the 91st percentile.
Since the trade deadline, no other Hawks rotation player has come close to matching his defensive impact, with Atlanta allowing just 107.7 points per 100 possessions during his time on the floor*. His net rating over this span leads all Hawks’ rotation players.
*which becomes all the more impressive when you consider that his minutes have primarily come against opposing team’s starters
To put it in layman’s terms, the dude is a monster on the defensive end.
My only gripe when it comes to Gueye is that he hasn’t played more. Sure his offensive skill-set is raw. He can’t really dribble, and he is shooting just 24.3% from three in the NBA this season. But given how tantalizing his defensive upside is, and that the Hawks’ are still a few years away from truly competing, is there any real downside to giving him some more minutes?
It’s not like the offense falls off a cliff when he’s out there. He’s a decent scorer from inside the arc, and his outside shot isn’t broken, as evidenced by him shooting 39.5% from three in the G League.
This season, only six (non-OKC) players have posted a lower defensive rating* during their time on the court than Gueye, and given that Atlanta has ranked 21st in defensive rating (117.9) since the trade deadline, I can’t find too many reasons for Gueye not to be playing more.
*It has to be emphasized that defensive rating is a team stat, not an individual one – however given Mo’s ridiculous on/off impact for the Hawks in less than 500 minutes of playing time, it’s evident that his defensive ability is one of the main reasons that this number is so low.
Gimme some mo’ Mo, please!
7.9% – increase in opponent’s floater FG% when Dyson Daniels is on the court
I won’t waste my time making a defensive player of the year case for Dyson Daniels. Evaluating defense isn’t easy, and I can certainly understand how someone could be swayed to give the award to Draymond Green or Evan Mobley this season.
However, what I will say is that I’ve been extremely ticked off by how lazy some of the arguments against Daniels have been. One of my (least) favorites is the argument that Daniels’ on/off impact on Atlanta’s defensive impact pales in comparison to some of the other contenders for the award.
Per cleaningtheglass, The Cleveland Cavaliers defense allows 4.8 fewer points per 100 possessions with Mobley on the floor. The Warriors allow 2.8 fewer points per 100 possessions with Draymond Green on the floor. Yet, the Hawks only allow 0.4 fewer points per 100 possessions with Dyson Daniels on the floor.
Does it matter that defensive rating is a team stat, and is not generally reflective of one player’s ability, but of the five-man lineups’ defensive aptitude as a whole, as well as the offensive efficiency of the lineups that they play against? Apparently not.
Never mind the fact that Daniels is on pace to average over threes steals per game this season – something that hasn’t been done since 1991. Don’t worry about the fact that he is about to obliterate the single-season “deflections” record of 315, with 427 deflection (and counting) this season.
Forget about the fact that despite Daniels’ rampant defensive activity, he rarely finds himself in foul trouble, averaging just 2.4 fouls per game. You don’t need to know that Daniels plays the majority of his minutes next to Trae Young, a defensive sieve who’s D-EPM* ranks in the fourth (!) percentile amongst all players this season.
*Defensive estimated plus-minus, a one number defensive metric from dunkandthrees —- methodology here
Why would any of that matter when Atlanta’s defensive rating hardly budges with Daniels on the floor?
I included Daniels on/off numbers from cleaningtheglass below, and as you can see, despite the Hawks forcing more turnovers, grabbing more defensive rebounds, and allowing fewer free-throws in his minutes, the reason this doesn’t show up in the on/off numbers is because opponent’s are shooting a whopping 48.9% on floaters, and 38.6% on non-corner threes when he is in the game. Both marks rank in the 11th percentile relative to other five-man lineups this season.
In fact, the Hawks actually have a more favorable defensive shot profile during Daniels’ minutes – allowing fewer threes, and more mid-range attempts. Yet, due to the massive uptick in opponent mid-range and three-point accuracy, this positive impact on the opponent’s shot profile is moot!
I’ve come to terms with the fact that Daniels likely won’t finish in the top-two in this year’s DPOY race, and that’s fine. But if you’re going to make an argument against him, all I ask is that you please don’t use his wacky on/off defensive rating impact to make your point.
All statistics used in this article are from cleaningtheglass, dunksandthrees, pbpstats, nba.com/stats, or bball-index.com.