At some point, Smith-Shawver is going to make a Postseason start and it’ll actually go well. Hopefully, it’s in the near future!
For the second straight season, promising Atlanta Braves pitching prospect AJ Smith-Shawver received a limited amount of experience at the major league level. For the second straight season, that didn’t matter once October rolled around, as the Braves once again threw him out there for the Postseason — as if to say, “Go get ‘em, kid!” For the second straight season, Smith-Shawver fell victim to the long ball in that respective Postseason appearance. Things will surely change in the future, right?
How acquired
The Braves took AJ Smith-Shawver with the 217th overall pick in the seventh round of the 2021 MLB Draft. They went overslot with a $997,500 signing bonus in order to sign him, as Shawver’s impressive baseball resume in high school went right along with his promising skills as a football player — to the point where he had committed to play both sports at Texas Tech. The Braves were able to get him to commit to playing pro ball and after he started in the FCL in 2021, it only took two years for Smith-Shawver to eventually make it to the bigs in 2023.
What were the expectations?
While AJ Smith-Shawver made his big league debut in 2023, he only put up 25 innings at the big league level with some pretty horrid stats: a 97 ERA- but a 156 FIP- and 130 xFIP-. Combine that with him getting blasted in the NLDS (three homers in 2 2⁄3 innings), and the fact that he didn’t actually pitch all that well at Double-A or Triple-A, and it was safe to assume that he still needed some time before he would truly be big-league ready. As such, it made sense to think that Smith-Shawver would spend 2024 mostly at Triple-A while being called upon to make spot starts whenever needed.
2024 results
As it turned out, AJ Smith-Shawver did in fact spend the vast majority of 2024 pitching for the Gwinnett Stripers, with 87 innings across 20 starts at the Triple-A level. He ended up making just one single start in the majors for the Braves, as he was called upon to make a start on May 23 at Wrigley Field against the Cubs. Despite having performed pretty poorly at Triple-A up to that point (he had an ERA of 6.10 and a FIP of 6.83 over eight starts with the Stripers to start the season), Smith-Shawver was able to get through 4.1 innnings against the Cubs without giving up a single run. He did give up three hits and walked two batters but he also struck out four batters as well. It wasn’t spectacular but it was enough to help push the Braves to a 3-0 win on the day, despite the 126 xFIP- for the game. Good things happen when the homers don’t find you.
There was a good reason why that start was a truncated one for AJ Smith-Shawver, as it turned out that he had strained his oblique muscle early on during that outing. The injury ended up costing him nearly two months; he didn’t return to Triple-A until July 14. From that point forward, Smith-Shawver was a bit better in his final 12 starts of the season as he produced an ERA of 4.18 and a FIP of 4.94 over 12 starts — resulting in a final ERA of 4.86 and FIP of 5.62 for the Stripers in 2024.
September was a bit of a rollercoaster for him as well, as he started it with five scoreless innings on September 1 against the Columbus Clippers, four runs allowed over seven innings against the Nashville Sounds on September 7, one run allowed over six innings on September 15 against the Buffalo Bisons and then he capped it off by getting bopped with four homers for five runs against the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp on September 22. While each of those four homers came against two separate batters (two each for Dane Myers and Grant Pauley), it was certainly a mixed bag as you never want to give up four dingers in any given outing.
Despite the up-and-down end to his season, AJ Smith-Shawver somehow found himself standing on the mound to start off the game for the Braves against the Padres in Game 1 of the NL Wild Card Series. He gave up a single to lead off the bottom of the first for the Padres and then Fernando Tatis Jr. took the first pitch he saw from Smith-Shawver and crushed it. Once the meatball landed in the second deck of the left field seating area, it was 2-0 Braves. Smith-Shawver eventually made it out of the first inning without giving up more damage but he started the second inning by hitting Jake Cronenworth. Cronenworth ended up on third base with a single and then Kyle Higashioka hit a sacrifice fly off of Smith-Shawver to plate Cronenworth to make it 3-0 and end Smith-Shawver’s night (and season) right then and there.
What went right?
It’s pretty clear that AJ Smith-Shawver had been working on his repertoire as he trimmed it down to a four-seamer, a changeup and a curveball. When his stuff was working, he was very tough to deal with. In the one start he made with the Braves at the big league level this season, his fastball was sitting at 96 mph and he hit triple digits on the radar gun on a few occasions in the minors. He also made a considerable effort to improve his changeup and at times, the work he had put in during the offseason and spring training began to bear a bit of fruit. He had two occasions during the season where he struck out ten or more batters (and he finished the year with a strikeout percentage of 28.5 percent at Triple-A) and a lot of that had to do with his changeup getting better.
As far as his lone start at the big league level goes (during the regular season, at least), he did everything the Braves asked of him up to that point. If not for the injury, Smith-Shawver may have pitched his way into sticking around for at least another outing or two.
What went wrong?
As we’ve seen in his two Postseason performances, AJ Smith-Shawver is not immune to throwing meatballs right down the middle of the plate. His command is still spotty and it got him into trouble with the Stripers as he had a whopping 44.2 percent fly ball rate that led to a HR/9 rate of 2.07 at the Triple-A level. He also get a bit fortunate in his start in Chicago that a lot of the fly balls that he surrendered didn’t turn into dingers on the day at Wrigley Field. Then there’s the aforementioned appearance in late September where he gave up four homers despite striking out ten batters and then you have the Postseason appearance. While Atlanta’s offense pulling another Postseason disappearing act didn’t help matters, it’s pretty difficult to throw a pitch like this to a hitter of Tatis’ caliber and come away from it unscathed.
Fundamentally, the issue for Smith-Shawver at this point is just that he’s not pitching very well. While the Braves clearly don’t care about minor league performance compared to figuring out what works and making adjustments, the reality is that whatever Smith-Shawver has been doing in the minors hasn’t actually translated to pitching effectively. A 5.62 FIP and 4.61 xFIP isn’t any better than what Smith-Shawver managed in his first stint in Triple-A last year, and while things could click at any time, they just haven’t yet.
2025 Outlook
With most of the rotation spots already spoken for, there’s not much room for starting spots at the big league level unless someone takes a major leap and proves it during Spring Training. That type of leap would be what it would take for AJ Smith-Shawver to break through in order to move up from pitching at Triple-A to being a regular starter in Major League Baseball.
With that being said, he didn’t exactly distinguish himself with the Stripers as he definitely got knocked around a bit during the 2024 season. He’s still got to figure out his command in order to make sure that he can take the next step to the top level of baseball. ZiPS figures that Smith-Shawver could make a limited impact as a spot starter again but there’s a real question as to whether or not Smith-Shawver will be doing that in the Braves organization going forward.
Braves beat writer Mark Bowman has mentioned that Smith-Shawver figures to be a prime candidate to be included in a trade due to his high potential that continues to keep him in consideration as a top prospect in Atlanta’s organization and a top-100 prospect in all of baseball. This does seem to be a bit of a switch from earlier reporting (i.e., during 2023) that Smith-Shawver was considered untouchable; if the Braves do decide to swing a deal to improve their squad then I wouldn’t be shocked if Smith-Shawver got traded, for what it’s worth. His high ceiling and age (he’s still just 22) might also be reason enough to keep him around but again, he’s got to show some serious improvement and maybe that’ll come with another year of work in Triple-A.