Bingo, That’s It!
Every New Year’s Eve, my wife and I have a conversation about the past year – name the top three and the worst three things from the past year. We had a lot of good things this past year, but I had trouble coming up with what my top three were. My gallbladder exploding, however … well, that was top worst thing of the year (I’m clearly fine now).
Along with those, we talk about what we want to do the next year. It’s not exactly setting resolutions usually, per se. It’s usually much more general – eliminate some debt, grill more, eat healthier – but it helps to focus on what we both want to do as a measure of support for each other.
This year, she had a separate idea. “Let’s try a Bingo card of ‘resolutions’”, she said. This time, we’re making more specific goals, each putting them in a hat, and randomly drawing them out. It took … a lot more time than you’d think to make 24 separate goals, but in the end, I thought it was a worthy exercise. Now, we’ll see if I can do a chin-up by the end of the year.
Anyway, oh yes, Atlanta. The Atlanta Braves need to make a list of reservations, so here we go.
(in no particular order)
Steal More Bases …
From 2020-2023, Atlanta was pretty much league-average in stolen bases with 301. In 2024, they had 69, which was good enough for 28th in MLB. Now, but how much of that was Acuña? He stole 127 bases from 2020-2023 (best in MLB).
And Be Better Once You’re on There
During the previous 4 seasons, the Braves were 7th in MLB in FanGraphs’ baserunning metric (BsR), but last year … they were 25th. Ick.
Stop Popping It Up
From 2020-2023, Atlanta hit infield pop-ups 8.4% of the time, good for 2nd fewest in MLB. In 2024, it was 10.7%, 14th worst in MLB.
And Also, Stop Hitting It at People?
In the same time period, Atlanta’s team BABIP was .301. In 2024, it was .291. Narrative-wise, you’d think that they needed to hit it harder, in the air less, or whatever, but you’d be wrong. The rest of the batted ball metrics are pretty close to what they had done in previous seasons. It just didn’t seem to fall or go over the fence as much. Aaaand, all of the pop-ups didn’t help.
But Also Get Them to Hit It at Ours?
You can basically flip the previous section almost exactly. They went from turning a lot of balls in play to … well, not. And predictably, going the wrong direction in both of these directions was not helpful.
By Getting Them to Hit It in the Air More
Part of the BABIP issue for Braves’ pitchers was likely groundball rate. After being 43.3% (10th highest in MLB), they went to 45.4% (3rd highest). More groundballs generally isn’t good for the ole BABIP, and if you’re going to get more groundballs, you need a better defensive infield.
Cut Back on the Strikeouts
I’m not big on the “strikeouts are terrible” bandwagon, but while the team walked a pretty similar amount to previous years, their offensive strikeout rate went up a percentage point. They went from a league-average K% (23.2%) to a bottom 10 (24.1%). They’ve always whiffed a lot, but it turned into more outs in 2024.
But Walk Fewer Hitters
Atlanta went from 6th in MLB in BB/9 from 2020-2023 (2.80) to 16th (3.30). You can’t give up free baserunners, and it reaaallly doesn’t help to give up more free passes and more hits on balls in play. You might be surprised to learn they led MLB in K rate, though.
Get More from Catchers
Sean Murphy is not 1 WAR caliber, but at age 29, his walks went down, strikeouts went up, and power bottomed out. His bat speed was still there, but his judgement of the strike zone completely evaporated. Will that come back? Then there’s the loss of Travis d’Arnaud. Chadwick Tromp isn’t the answer, and Drake Baldwin, fun as he may be, isn’t something we can count on. With a longer leash, the hope is that Murphy comes back strong and is closer to the 4-5 win player we’ve seen before because I don’t think there’s a move that’s being made to improve here (nor should it be, at this point).
Get More from Shortstop
Orlando Arcia was also a 1 WAR player last year. His offensive Statcast numbers are turrible, but his defensive numbers were fine. 1 win from one position isn’t awful, but with left field and catcher as uncertainties, it would help to improve here. Unfortunately, there aren’t a ton of currently available options. We’ve seen better from Arcia, but defense doesn’t generally age well and his offense was legitimately bad last year.
Get More from Left Field
These last few can’t be surprising. Jarred Kelenic was basically bought from Seattle last offseason, but 0.5 wins wasn’t the hope. There are some things to like about his Statcast numbers – Barrel%, Bat Speed, Hard Hit% – but there are obviously some bad – Whiff%, K%. He’ll turn 26 in July, so there’s still some time. But it wouldn’t hurt to have another option. It also becomes less of an issue if everyone else is healthy and productive, and he’s hitting 8th instead of randomly hitting 1st occasionally.
Stop the Bleeding
Atlanta lost 6 games in a row twice last season. 4 games was the longest losing streak in 2023, 3 in 2022, and 4 in 2021. Not only did they have a longer streak last year. They did it twice.
And Keep the Good Times Rolling
After winning streaks of 9, 14, and 9 in previous seasons, the best Atlanta could do in 2024 was 6.
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In doing the research for this, I was surprised at how … not bad? … the team was last year in comparison to previous years. They still hit the heck out of the ball, struck out a ton of batters, and they did it without a lot of their best players. Beyond playing with some inferior players, I was surprised at how bad the Variation Gods went against the team last year, and I expected a number of different resolutions to come up that just didn’t when you really look at it.
Anyway, you’ll note that’s not 24 specific resolutions, but I did add a few to the Bingo board below. We’ll check back in October.
