Call it pigheadedness or perseverance, but the nomenclature is irrelevant in the face of the Braves’ stoicism
In Spencer Schwellenbach’s MLB debut, he held the Nationals scoreless for four innings, nursing a 1-0 lead as he worked around a one-out double in the fourth. The fifth, though, started to unravel for the young right-hander. A leadoff double and a hit-by-pitch put the tying and go-ahead runs on base, and forced Schwellenbach into facing the Nationals lineup for a third time with none out.
Schwellenbach fell behind leadoff man CJ Abrams, 2-0, but battled back to strike him out. That brought up Lane Thomas, who had doubled off Schwellenbach earlier. Since I’m writing about this, you can probably already surmise how it went: Schwellenbach fell behind with three straight sliders, then threw three straight fastballs, the third of which was easily turned around for a three-run homer. The Atlanta Braves lost 7-2, one of their many ignominious losses to the Nationals this season.
When reminiscing on the above, we can feel positive about the fact that Schwellenbach has come an incredibly long way, seemingly overhauling his entire approach to pitching after his first three career starts. With his six-pitch mix, he probably won’t be in a place where he feels he has to triple down on a pitch in a sequence to get a key out. But, what sticks out more, especially given where the Braves are right now and Schwellenbach’s most recent start, is that even as the playoff probabilities have started to precariously plummet, the Braves… don’t seem to care. In other words: Schwellenbach wasn’t pulled before giving up the game in his first career start because there was still plenty of time left on the schedule to right the ship, and player development was taking a leading role over concern for the standings. Schwellenbach wasn’t pulled because the Braves have a vision for how things go, and they’re sticking to it, circumstances be damned.
To be honest, none of this is surprising, and I don’t have to tell this story through the lens of Spencer Schwellenbach’s rookie season, though it makes for a decent framing device. In 2023, the Braves didn’t really even change their approach to pitching management when Bryce Elder ended up being left in to face Bryce Harper in a playoff game. Even that wasn’t really that surprising when looked at the lens of just the prior year, when, in an elimination game, it was Charlie Morton who gave up a three-run homer to an opposite-handed hitter. But even if we return to Schwellenbach, it’s the same throughline: on September 1, against the Phillies, through little fault of his own, the Phillies scored two runs off him the third time through. So, when Schwellenbach was again nursing a 1-0 lead in his 19th career start on Wednesday night in Cincinnati, there was no reason to expect the Braves to pull him despite the heighted importance of the game.
And pull him the Braves didn’t. With the tying and go-ahead runs on base and the top of the lineup coming up a third time, with the season on life support as it is, Schwellenbach stayed in. Fortunately for the Braves, Jonathan India bailed them out: Schwellenbach hung a splitter to him, which India turned into weak contact and a 5-3 double play. Escaping that jam and keeping their hopes alive a bit longer, the Braves still left Schwellenbach in to face Elly de la Cruz, who has absolutely insane platoon splits (136 wRC+ against righties, 83 wRC+ against lefties) and has had the Reds’ best offensive production on the year. de la Cruz doubled, and Schwellenbach hit Tyler Stephenson with a pitch. But he still stayed in!
This game was recent enough that you know how it goes, and fortunately, it didn’t go that poorly. Schwellenbach got a gift strike three call on 0-2 against Spencer Steer, and then the Reds joined in on the gift-giving by opting to squeeze bunt to tie the game; a harmless grounder let the Braves escape the inning. And then they proceeded to mash, scoring six runs late to turn the game into a laugher.
So, the results were favorable, but the process was questionable at best. It worked out this time, but it’s also failed to work out a bunch. The bottom line: no team has had their starters pitch more in high leverage the third time through or later than the Braves, and that shows no signs of stopping any time soon. If the Braves didn’t do it early, if they didn’t do it with a chance of upending the division race against the Phillies, if they didn’t do it in this most recent game where a loss probably ends their season… if they didn’t do “it” (where “it” means proactively removing a starting pitcher before things go careening off the win expectancy cliff to insert one of their prized relief pitchers whose usage they’ve carefully safeguarded all season) in key playoff games the last two years, I don’t think they’re gonna do it. And that sucks.
It sucks because it creates an internal contradiction in the organization: why bother spending so much on relievers just to relegate them to picking up the pieces whenever this strategy falters? It sucks because it fundamentally gives away win expectancy for no reason. It sucks because it violates the basic concept of a spectator sport: we want the team to do everything in its power to win; if that’s not the case, why even bother watching?
But, the Braves have their reasons for what they’re doing. Some probably make no sense at all, but some do, even if those reasons seem (to me) to get less valid as the playoff odds drop. In any case, though, they’re staying true to themselves, whatever the price.
After the Braves lost to the Reds on Tuesday, there was a quote from skipper Brian Snitker that made me chuckle:
“In the past we would just outslug everything, but we’re different right now”
The roster, injury-depleted as it is, is different. The run environment is very different. The position the Braves find themselves in? Almost unrecognizable given the past two-plus seasons. But the Braves themselves? They’re exactly the same. Whether that stoicism ends in joy or despair about ten days from now — that’s what we’re waiting to see.