Hurston Waldrep’s splitter is one of many standout pitches in the Braves system
Yesterday we gave you our best tools amongst the position player prospects in our top 30 Atlanta Braves prospects list, and today we’re going to flip it around and look at pitchers. While the lack of depth led to many of the best tools being shared between the same handful of guys, the Braves have plenty of pitching prospects to choose from and plenty that have exciting tool sets. No player landed at more than two of the best tools, and each of our seven highest-rated pitchers find themselves getting recognition here.
Best Fastball: AJ Smith-Shawver
2024 wasn’t the year many had envisioned for AJ Smith-Shawver, but one of the stand out traits for Smith-Shawver was the development of his fastball. While he did run into some command hiccups, he more frequently flirted with and touched triple digits, with the command tweaks the Braves focused on allowing him to get downhill more effectively. Smith-Shawver did show fatigue at the end of the season in the form of a dip in velocity, but the Braves focus on his fastball has been paying its dividends. He needs next to unlock the final level of his command of the pitch, as too often in 2024 he would allow the ball to drift down over the middle of the plate leading to hard contact, but he also improved the swing and miss results on on the pitch, specifically when he elevated the fastball effectively.
Also considered: Raudy Reyes
Best Changeup: JR Ritchie
Despite the time lost to Tommy John surgery, JR Ritchie has managed to make quick improvements to his arsenal, with the changeup being his most notable progression over his pre-injury form. Ritchie’s changeup has caught up to and perhaps surpassed the slider which made him deadly in the early parts of 2023, showing more consistent command and movement while dominating low-level hitters. Ritchie has added more depth and fade to the changeup, producing high whiff rates and much better command at this stage than expected. Playing off of an improved fastball shape and command, Ritchie has done nothing but impress throughout his professional career. His ability to quickly improve his changeup, even with the obstacles he faced, is one of many signs that Ritchie could be a special prospect for the Braves.
Also considered: Cam Caminiti, Garrett Baumann
Best Splitter: Hurston Waldrep
This was the easiest vote we have on either side of the ball, with Waldrep’s split-finger fastball being arguably the best single tool for any player, pitcher or hitter. Waldrep’s entire profile is built around the wicked, diving movement of his splitter, which at every level has wreaked havoc on opposing hitters. Even in his time in the major leagues it was clear just how effective that pitch can be when he is able to get players to bite on it, though his inability to throw it or any pitch in the strike zone in 2024 ultimately served to the detriment of his numbers. Waldrep’s ability to utilize the splitter as a primary force against both handed hitters is notable, giving reason to hope that he can rebound from a tough 2024 season.
Best curveball: Owen Murphy
The Braves, generally, are not a curveball heavy system, with most of the players focused on hard, vertical sliders as their swing-and-miss secondary. Owen Murphy, even prior to his Tommy John surgery, had some questions about his secondaries, but at his best his slider jumped off of the page for its movement and ability to generate swing-and-miss. Murphy in his short debut in Augusta in 2022 showed off the best curveball we’ve seen in a few years in the system, then the Braves had him mostly shy away from the pitch as the development of his fastball and command have been at the forefront of their approach. At its best the upper-70’s curveball dives below the zone, eliciting whiffs often from left-handed hitters which is critical for a player who so far hasn’t shown a great changeup.
Also considered: Luke Sinnard, Cam Caminiti
Best Slider: Jhancarlos Lara
Lara’s power is a remarkable feature for his arsenal, and his ability to sit his slider consistently in the low-90’s has helped it to be a dominant force at the lower levels. In 2023 he relied nearly entirely on the velocity of the pitch to overwhelm lower-level hitters, but his movement and ability to spin the pitch took a step forward in 2024. Lara often commands his slider better than his fastball, and his ability to use the pitch at a high rate while still posting elite swing-and-miss numbers on the pitch have made it the best breaking ball in the system. Whether he ultimately ends up as a starter or a reliever is still yet to be seen, but in any case Lara’s double-plus slider will be the highlight of his profile and carry him to whatever major league succeess he finds.
also considered: Raudy Reyes, Carter Holton
Best Cutter: Blake Burkhalter
Blake Burkhalter’s cutter was the pitch that made him so enticing as an amateur, and even though he has diversified his arsenal it is still the carrying pitch off of which all of his other pitches play. As Burkhalter raced towards the end of 2024 he started to come around to his pre-Tommy John form, and there his cutter took over as a confounding battle for High-A hitters. Burkhalter commands the pitch well up and on the inner edge of the plate, sitting the pitch in the low-90’s with sharp and above average movement. His fastball and slider both play off of the shape of his cutter, and he was frequently able to utilize the pitch to get swing-and-miss results from both-handed batters. Left-handed hitters in particular seemed to have no hope against his cutter, as even if they were able to get bat-to-ball they would rarely be able to get inside of it enough to get the barrel on the pitch.
Also Considered: Drue Hackenberg
Best command: Owen Murphy/Lucas Braun (tie)
While they may do it a bit differently, both Owen Murphy and Lucas Braun are command wizards and rely on their ability to locate their fastballs to make up for below average velocity. For Murphy, it’s the elite movement traits of his fastball. Murphy produces absurdly efficient vertical movement on his fastball, which paired with his above average extension numbers makes it an outsized monster when he hits the top of the zone. Fortunately for Murphy, he is also terrific at hitting the top of the zone, and in 2024 produced elite whiff rates before he went down with Tommy John surgery. The consistency of Murphy’s secondaries was a bit more in question, but Murphy’s quiet mechanics and plus athleticism have helped him quickly adjust to a full-time role on the mound.
In Braun’s case, he lacks the movement quality that Murphy has, and instead has spent his career refining his ability to land all of his pitches in various parts of the zone. The Braves had Braun working on his approach to pitching in Double-A, and he stood out for his ability to move his fastball not only vertically in the zone, but to nip both edges of the zone. This has allowed a below average fastball to still be effective, and his strike-throwing gets hitters into danger when they have to contend with his slider. Braun varies movement and location on his slider well, being able to drop it in for strikes when he needs them while also peppering the pitch just below the zone or just off the plate. Braun’s changeup is behind the other two pitches, but throughout the season he showed progress with commanding the pitch and landing it below the zone with more consistency.
Best Athlete: AJ Smith-Shawver
One of the traits the Braves have focused on from their pitchers is athleticism, with the believing that is one of the keys to both command improvement and the aptitude for learning and developing pitches. Smith-Shawver is the most notable of the players to stand out for his athleticism, going from a two-sport athlete in high school to a player who blitzed through the system thanks to his ability to learn quickly. Smith-Shawver was so far ahead of his development curve in 2023 it was shocking, drastically improving his command and fastball velocity thanks to his ability to make adjustments quickly. Then he picked up a new splitter, and by the beginning of this season it was already his best pitch. Smith-Shawver’s ability to utilize his athleticism along with a high willingness to change and improve has been a key to his quick rise, and is a huge reason we have remained high on him despite his struggles.
Highest Ceiling: Cam Caminiti
We’ve only had one opportunity to see Cam Caminiti in action as a professional, and in that one look he was everything he was billed to be and perhaps more. Caminiti through three dominant innings, with his mid-90’s fastball, plus changeup, and ability to locate his fastball up in the zone standing out immediately. His breaking balls were also better than expected, especially in his ability to hit his slider down and glove side throughout the start. This further fueled the idea that Caminiti coud have top-of-the-rotation upside, with his athleticism being a standout trait and the potential to have two plus pitches, an above average breaking ball, and above average command.
Also considered: AJ Smith-Shawver