The final in our series surrounding the preseason top 30 list looks at the top candidates to improve their stock in 2025
Every year a handful of prospects make huge leaps in the system, and often those players will come out of nowhere to vault into the upper tiers of the system. In 2023 that was Jhancarlos Lara, who stunned in Single-A with his upper-90s fastball and steady improvement throughout the season. Last season’s off the radar breakout was John Gil, who while he didn’t make the same impact as Lara immediately, has already proven to be one of the prospects in the system with the most upside. Those players are harder to predict. Today we’re going to look at the Atlanta Braves prospects with the biggest breakout potential among those we already know pretty well. Players like Drake Baldwin and Lucas Braun can, even after showcasing their talents, make tremendous leaps, and there are bound to be a few of those this year. These are those who seem most like they are on the verge of taking the next step.
Drue Hackenberg
Drue Hackenberg feels like he is inching towards being a much more exciting prospect than he is now, with the myriad of arsenal changes from the Braves somewhat tempering his performances in 2024. Hackenberg’s progression with his fastball velocity, the addition of an interesting cutter, and the continued performance of his hellacious slurve all point to a player who with just a few adjustments could unlock the level of command necessary to vastly improve the projections on his upside. His inability to locate that slurve consistently was a critical flaw throughout much of 2024, and his overall command has limited projections, but if he can manage to find the consistency the Braves are confident he has he could go from a developmental piece to a contributing member in Atlanta this season.
JR Ritchie
This is probably going to be the overwhelming pick for anyone looking at this system, as there is a real chance that Ritchie is the number one prospect in the system by this time next year. 2024 saw a swift return from Tommy John surgery, and while his velocity was a concern Ritchie looked surprisingly sharp with his command and secondaries. The step forward from his changeup bolsters confidence in his overall starting potential, and there is plenty of belief that his velocity will bump up after another offseason of strengthening following his surgery. The Braves have tweaked his fastball shape to give it more life in the zone, making it just as effective in 2024 as it was in 2023 despite the velocity dip, and if he can add that back both his fastball and slider could step up and he could end up with three potential plus pitches and average or better command. Ritchie will start in High-A, but if his velocity is back to form don’t be surprised to see Atlanta take a hyper aggressive approach to promoting him.
Ambioris Tavarez
Ambioris Tavarez seemed oh so close to his breakout last season before his broken hand cost him a few months and impacted his performance down the stretch, and 2025 seems to be his sink and swim season. While much has been made of Tavarez’s disappointing hit tool performance so far, it’s important to remember that he is just now the age of draft-eligible college juniors. While international players do benefit from the earlier entry into a professional system, Tavarez’s consistent struggles to stay on the field have mitigated some of that advantage, and he has already showed stretches of competence at High-A. This certainly isn’t a raving compliment, but Tavarez’s situation isn’t as dire as the surface level numbers may seem, and simply getting consistent playing time could make all the difference in 2025.
Jeremy Reyes
Each season at least one person in Augusta’s rotation goes from mid-tier prospect to a top 10 guy, and Reyes seems the most likely candidate here. He has all of the pieces to his arsenal to excite evaluators, with his arm talent jumping off of the page to any who watches him pitch, and at 19 years old he has plenty of time to refine the command that has limited him so far in his career. Augusta’s staff has done a terrific job in recent years of taking young pitchers to the next level of their command — Owen Murphy, Jhancarlos Lara and Didier Fuentes being examples over the past two years of players who improved command projections by a full grade. If Reyes takes that path, even one of slight improvement, he would go from a prospect ranked in the teens with questions over whether he can stick in a rotation to one with the potential to push some of his more advanced peers for spots in the top 10 midseason.
John Gil
Gil already had a breakout in 2024, and he is primed to fully make his case in a system in which he has been overshadowed by international prospects with higher signing bonuses. Gil has been the steadiest contact hitter among the recent international signees, seeing time in Augusta last season as an 18 year old and striking out less than 25% of the time. Gil has solid pitch and strike zone recognition to be a high on base bat, and the Braves are making an effort to have him drive the ball more consistently. If the power starts to show up this season he will vault up system rankings, as he has the hit tool and defensive characteristics to fill in the other gaps. In a system that has spent so much money on international position players over the past few year, Gil, a $110,000 signee, could take the mantle as the best of them if the others can’t break through this season.
Luis Guanipa
That note brings us to “others”. Guanipa’s raw physical talent is off of the charts. He has the potential for plus power while putting up double-plus run times, and his bat control and bat speed are indicative of a player who at maturity could be an above average or better hitter. Foundationally, Guanipa is prepared to make the leap forward, and it’s all about refining and slowing down the game for him. Mechanically, he has quieted down his swing, but he still can get long in his movements and fly open in his lower body. He hasn’t found a swing that allows him to lift consistently yet, and his approach has left much to be desired in the first couple of professional season. Those things, however, are all relatively easy to fix in comparison to physical limitations. The Braves are making the strides to tweak his swing, have done well with teaching young players plate discipline at the lower levels the past few seasons, and Guanipa is going to be the most physically gifted of any of the players Braves coaches have had to work with in years.
Jose Perdomo
Jose Perdomo was perhaps the most disappointing prospect last year, simply because we only got 22 total plate appearances out of what was supposed to be the Braves best position player prospect in a number of years. Perdomo had mixed results in the little time he was on the field, and those results are all but irrelevant given how long he missed with his hamstring injury. We’re hoping to see Perdomo stateside this season, and as long as he stays healthy there is no reason to believe he won’t take a step forward. Reports have been positive on Perdomo both offensively and defensively, and remaining reservations simply center around the health concern and lack of playing time.
Non Top 30
A few players who missed our top 30 list this spring are on my early season watch list, none moreso than Herick Hernandez. As a group we’ve been a bit more hesitant to put a ton of stock in the two games Hernandez has pitched as a professional, but he showed enough to believe he could be the system’s biggest riser come midseason. Hernandez ticks the boxes we’ve seen from many Braves breakout prospects with a carrying fastball from a low release that he can command at the top of the zone and a potentially dominant slider to pair. He will need to refine his command and improve his splitter to continue his trajectory towards being a starter, but he is already better than we expected.
Junior Garcia struggled mightily like the pair above when promoted to Augusta, but there isn’t reason to panic just yet. Garcia’s approach at the plate and size and physicality are all promising, and much of the problem stems from a swing that gets long and can cause him issues catching up to pitches and maintaining a consistent swing plane. Again, like Guanipa this is a relatively easy fix, and he could end up a high on base corner outfielder with 25 home run potential.
Robert Gonzalez may struggle to find playing time in what is expected to be a crowded Augusta outfield, but he could have a chance to join the Braves top 30 by midseason if he shows the same progress he made towards the end of 2024. Gonzalez’s approach in the early part of the season was atrocious and pitchers picked on him once they learned how often he would swing out of the zone, but the Braves made an active effort to have him focus on seeing and taking pitches, and it led to a massive production bump from late May onward as he posted better power numbers, a .363 on base percentage, and a 111 wRC+. Gonzalez is a very risky prospect given his tendency to chase secondary pitches, but he hits the ball hard showing above average raw power and has put out 80 grade run times.