The Braves will seek a second series win in a row, but will have to contend with some really good pitching to do it
After securing a series win over the Tampa Bay Rays, the Atlanta Braves will continue their homestand Monday as they begin a three game series against the Detroit Tigers. The Braves took the first two games of the series with the Rays and then rallied back from a 6-2 deficit on Sunday before eventually falling 8-6. Austin Riley capped off a good weekend at the plate with a game-tying two-run home run in the eighth inning. However, Raisel Iglesias surrendered a two-run home run in the ninth to Jose Siri that ended up being the difference.
Despite the disappointing ending, the Braves have a lot of things to feel good about going into Monday. After enduring about a seven-week slump, Atlanta’s offense finally showed signs of getting back on track. The Braves homered nine times in the series. Riley and Marcell Ozuna accounted for five of those nine longballs. Riley entered the series with three homers and doubled his output for the season, and avoided any barreled outs.
It wasn’t all good for the Braves though. Michael Harris II suffered a strained hamstring in Friday’s game and was placed on the 10-day Injured List. An MRI revealed a Grade 2 strain. Atlanta hasn’t announced a time frame for Harris’ possible return but it doesn’t seem like it is going to be anytime soon; the average Grade 2 hamstring strain resulted in an absence of over 30 days, per a 2019 academic study. Jarred Kelenic started the last two games of the series in center field, hit leadoff and homered in both games.
The Tigers got off to a decent start this season, but have gone 17-24 since the end of April. They have lost seven of their last 10 games overall and were nearly no-hit by the Astros on Sunday. They are 17th in the majors in runs scored and are 22nd in homers. Their pitching staff has carried most of the load for the season, especially their rotation. They are ranked eighth in the majors in pitching fWAR and are sixth with a 3.44 FIP. The bullpen doesn’t really have anything of note, but the trio of Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty, and Reese Olson have all been really good, and the Braves will have to contend with two of those guys in this series.
Detroit’s offense is trying to figure things out without a couple of its key pieces. Kerry Carpenter is currently on the Injured List and Spencer Torkleson struggled enough that he was sent back to Triple-A. Riley Greene has put together a solid season with a 133 wRC+. Former Braves prospect Justyn-Henry Malloy recently made his major league debut with the club. Malloy is off to a 6-for-32 start with a double and two home runs at the plate. Javier Baez is also on the IL, which is definitely addition by subtraction, given that he somehow already has -1.0 fWAR this year.
Monday, June 17, 7:20 p.m. ET
Reese Olson (13 GS, 71.0 IP, 20.1 K%, 7.6 BB%, 3.68 ERA, 3.26 FIP)
Reese Olson, who has been oh-so-good this year, will get the nod for the Tigers in Monday’s series opener. Olson has taken a step forward in his second season in the majors for Detroit but has struggled heavily of late. He produced a 49 ERA-, 72 FIP-, and 96 xFIP- over his first 10 starts and 56 1/3 innings. But, in his last three starts spanning 14 2/3 innings, he has a 265 ERA-, 119 FIP-, and 84 xFIP-. Basically, all the HR/FB and BABIP and strand rate things that were helping him exceed his xFIP have come home to roost, even as he hasn’t pitched all that poorly in the process. He’s allowed three homers over his last three starts, after getting popped for just one in his first ten outings. As an extreme groundballer, Olson can also be vulnerable to getting BABIPed, something that killed him in each of his last two starts.
Max Fried (13 GS, 78.2 IP, 22.4 K%, 7.7 BB%, 3.20 ERA, 3.38 FIP)
Max Fried will get the start in opener for Atlanta. Fried has been on quite a roll of late after struggling in his first two starts of the season. He posted a career-best 13 strikeouts against the Red Sox on June 4. In his next start on the road trip, he allowed four runs over five innings against the Orioles. That snapped a stretch of five starts where he had allowed three runs or less. Fried currently leads all starters with a 60.7 percent ground ball rate.
Tuesday, June 18, 7:20 p.m. ET
Casey Mize (13 GS, 65.0 IP, 15.0 K%, 6.6 BB%, 4.43 ERA, 3.94 FIP)
Right-hander Casey Mize will make his first career start against the Braves in Tuesday’s matchup. Mize was the first overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft out of Auburn. He missed all of the 2023 season while recovering from Tommy John Surgery, as well as back surgery. Mize haș had an up and down season, but is coming off of a good start where he limited the Nationals to one run over six innings. That was a nice bounceback for him after a four-start stretch where he had a combined 7/8 K/BB ratio and really struggled in each.
Spencer Schwellenbach (3 GS, 15.2 IP, 17.6 K%, 7.4 BB%, 6.32 ERA, 4.42 FIP)
Spencer Schwellenbach will stick in the rotation for his fourth start of the season in Tuesday’s matchup. Schwellenbach made two starts on the previous road trip. He was hit hard in Boston. allowing six runs over 4 2/3 innings. He turned in the best performance of his young career in his next start, holding the high-powered Orioles lineup to two runs over six innings. Schwellenbach has had some difficulty putting hitters away, but has attacked the strike zone and has done a good job of working out of trouble.
Wednesday, June 19, 12:20 p.m. ET
Tarik Skubal (14 GS, 86.0 IP, 29.2 K%, 4.8 BB%, 2.20 ERA, 2.43 FIP)
Left-hander Tarik Skubal will get the start for the Tigers in the series finale. Skubal has emerged as one of the best starters in the majors through the first two and half months of the season and is currently tied for second in the majors with 2.7 fWAR. This probably shouldn’t be a surprise given that he tallied 3.3 fWAR in just over 80 innings last year, but he wasn’t on a lot of radars because he missed the first half of 2023 with injury, and the Tigers weren’t really relevant while he was mowing down batters.
Skubal allowed four runs and recorded a season low two strikeouts in 6 1/3 innings in his last start against the Astros. The Braves will hope that marks the start of a poorer stretch of pitching for him, because he’s largely dominated other than that. He’s allowed two runs or less in 11 of his 14 starts this season. He’s posted an FIP- below 60 (!!) in nine of his 14 starts, and has more starts with an xFIP- below 80 than above it.
Wednesday will be Skubal’s first career start against Atlanta.
Reynaldo López (12 GS, 69.1 IP, 25.8 K%, 8.1 BB%, 1.69 ERA, 2.83 FIP)
Reynaldo López has been one of the best stories of the season for the Braves and will make his 13th start of the season in Wednesday’s game against the Tigers. Lopez tossed six scoreless innings and tied a season high with eight strikeouts in his last start against the Orioles. With 69 1/3 innings pitched, Lopez has already surpassed the 66 innings that he threw all of last season as a reliever. The Tigers should be pretty familiar with him given all the time he spent in the AL Central.