Sale comes into the start with a 6.17 ERA, but better days should be on the horizon.
The Atlanta Braves are riding high after a 5-1 home stand, and they will look to continue their winning ways against the Arizona Diamondbacks for a three-game series that begins Friday night in Phoenix. The Snakes are 14-11 this season, although they’re coming off back-to-back home losses to the Rays.
Chris Sale will start the opener for Atlanta. It has been a frustrating few weeks for the reigning Cy Young winner, who enters with a 6.17 ERA across five starts. However, Sale’s underlying data suggests brighter days should be on the horizon by evidence of a 3.80 FIP, 3.29 xFIP, stellar 32/7 strikeout to walk ratio, and a ridiculously unlucky .422 BABIP against. The Braves really need Sale to right the ship soon, especially with Spencer Strider out for the next few weeks with a hamstring strain. The rotation is awfully thin at the moment.
Sale will be opposed by Zac Gallen, who has similarly struggled in the early going of the season. Gallen owns a 5.60 ERA in five starts with a combined xERA / FIP / xFIP of 4.60. The key issue for Gallen in the early going is an uptick in walks (career-worst 10.7%) and home run rate (1.65 HR/9). According to Baseball Savant, Gallen’s fastball and breaking balls — he mixes in a curve and slider about 35% of the time — have been among the worst pitches in baseball through the first month.
The Diamondbacks have one of the game’s better offenses, ranking in the top 10 (if not top 5) in just about every major statistical category. Arizona leads all of MLB in walk rate and is second in strikeout rate, so Braves pitchers will have their hands full. Pavin Smith (232 wRC+) and Corbin Carroll (195 wRC+) have been out of their minds in the early going; hopefully Sale can neutralize them from the left side.
First pitch on Friday evening is set for 9:40 p.m. ET at Chase Field.