Braves prospects weekly report: Ian Mejia’s no hitter, Spencer Schwellenbach’s promotion

Mejia is the breakout player of the 2024 season

What a week it was for Atlanta Braves prospects. Throughout the system there were dominant pitching performances – from Owen Murphy’s eleven strikeouts to Spencer Schwellenbach’s stellar Mississippi debut. Yet none matched Ian Mejia, the man who missed (most) top 30 lists and yet has been Mississippi’s best pitcher and just threw their first individual no hitter in nearly 16 years.

Gwinnett Stripers

Record: 21-24, 7th in IL West (8.5 GB)

It is looking ever-worse for the Gwinnett Stripers, who after a 2-5 week have fallen to having the second-worst run differential among all International League teams. Last week though it wasn’t the offense that was the weak point as it has been in the past. The Stripers rotation posted a 5.97 ERA last week, and the actual prospects on the team were even worse with the two good outings both coming from veterans Zach Logue and Taylor Widener.

The two players to point out for the Stripers right now are Dylan Dodd and AJ Smith-Shawver, both of whom have made some interesting changes and seem to be making the biggest tweaks on the team to explain away some of their struggles. Dodd’s seen some velocity fluctuation this season, like averaging 92.5 mph on his fastball in his first start last week, but largely he has been sitting in the 93.5 range and has been having better success with the pitch. Also part of this seems to be an adjustment to his slider, which is now being listed as a cutter but is just a harder version of the slider he threw last year with a bit less vertical movement.

Smith-Shawver has been limited in his pitch usage all year by the Braves trying to develop pitches outside of his slider, but that was taken to a new level on Sunday when they basically took the slider completely away from him. Smith-Shawver struggled with his other secondaries and allowed three home runs in the game as a result, and the efforts the Braves have made haven’t really stuck just yet. Command of his fastball is a slowly-improving process it seems, and while it is likely Smith-Shawver has a rotation spot waiting on him once he is able to find location as of yet it doesn’t seem he’s hitting the markers he needs to get back to Atlanta. A fully unleashed Smith-Shawver is probably the best of the group out of the Stripers, but similar to Kyle Wright in 2021 Atlanta is likely going to be content with the plan in allowing Smith-Shawver to develop at his own pace.

Series Preview

Gwinnett heads home to take on Jacksonville (Miami Marlins), and bigger than that are expected to welcome Sean Murphy to the squad to start a rehab assignment this week. Jacksonville is on a slide with only two wins out of their last ten games, and while not as extreme as Gwinnett’s struggled the Jumbo Shrimp aren’t much of an offensive team. Tim Anderson is currently listed on the Jumbo Shrimp roster on a rehab assignment himself, though it is unclear how long it will be before he is cleared to play as he joined the roster on Saturday.

Jacksonville features eight of Miami’s top 30 prospects, the most notable being Baseball America’s #43 prospect Max Meyer. Meyer has been off to a slow start since being demoted from the major league roster, with a 7.56 ERA in five Triple-A outings. He will likely be part of a top 100 matchup Friday evening, as his regular schedule of pitching once a week would line him up to face Smith-Shawver.

Mississippi Braves

Record: 16-23, 4th in SL South (6 GB)

It was a phenomenal week for pitching down in Mississippi, and seemingly every outing someone was able to step up and outdo the pitcher before him. This dominance started with a Wednesday double-header featuring Hurston Waldrep and Spencer Schwellenbach, with Waldrep setting the tone. Across eighth innings Waldrep allowed just one run, going the distance to earn the complete game win in an extra innings contest. This was the first outing this season that Waldrep hasn’t allowed a walk, and since allowing seven runs in the first game of the season Waldrep has a 1.78 ERA.

The nightcap for that double header was the Double-A debut of Spencer Schwellenbach, and even facing that jump in levels it turned out to be the most dominant outing of Schwellenbach’s career so far. Schwellenbach had his slider finely tuned and used it to great effect, posting a career-high nine strikeouts across six scoreless innings. The biggest question mark he has faced at the lower levels has been his whiff rates, as he hasn’t ever been able to miss bats quite at the level his raw stuff says he should be able to. However it seems that he is turning around that narrative, and in each of his last five starts has more strikeouts than innings pitched.

Both of these starts were incredible, but paled in comparison to the complete dominance from Ian Mejia on Friday night. Mejia was locked in from the start, striking out the side in the first inning on the way to the first individual no-hitter for the Mississippi Braves since Tommy Hanson did so back in 2008. Mejia was locating every pitch effectively, tying up the Shuckers hitters with his slider throughout the night. Mejia flashed an improved changeup from 2024, and also impressed with his poise in the late innings. Despite a couple of close calls going against him he never seemed to waver on the mound, and dotting a fastball on the outside corner to finish off the no-hitter with a strikeout.

Offensively it’s still a struggle for Mississippi, but there is perhaps life in the bat of Drake Baldwin. Across the last two series Baldwin has cut his swing-and-miss considerably, with those 12 games adding up to a 108 wRC+ and a 13% strikeout rate. Then last week we saw the biggest flashes of power for him all season, bookending home runs in the series for his second and third of the season. Baldwin has felt like a disappointment, yet despite all of the struggles has managed to work his season wRC+ up to 99 despite running a BABIP lower than at any other level.

Series Preview

Mississippi now heads on the road to Chattanooga, taking on the Lookouts of the Reds organization. Chattanooga has had a terrible season, going 12-27 and this past week falling behind the M-Braves for the worst OPS in the Southern League. Lookouts hitters strike out more than any other team in the league, giving the Braves dominant trio a chance to pad their stats. Chattanooga also has the worst pitching staff in the league, with a 4.40 ERA that is 22% higher than any other team. The Lookouts feature three of Cincinnati’s top 11 prospects, including Baseball America’s #32 overall prospect Rhett Lowder. Lowder is scheduled to pitch on Thursday, where he should match up against Ian Mejia. Lowder has pitched only twice at Double-A, and both games were a struggle as he has an ERA over 9.

Rome Emperors

Record: 19-18, 2nd in SAL South (1 GB)

It is unfortunately difficult to gain much insight from games we don’t have video access to, though the one sure thing is that Owen Murphy continues to be a force in the South Atlantic League. Murphy’s 11 strikeout outing on Tuesday was his third 10+ strikeout game in just seven outings this season, and his third scoreless outing of six or more innings. Both of his 11 strikeout games have come against Asheville, in Asheville, and the Tourists currently lead the SAL in strikeout rate as a team. One interesting note, however is that typically the Tuesday starter also makes the Sunday start for the team, but the Braves instead moved Mitch Farris up from Augusta to cover the start for Rome on Sunday.

Otherwise it was a pretty rough week for the Emperors, who only took two out of six to fall down to second in the standings. Rain was a constant battle with games being pushed back, specifically Jhancarlos Lara having his start day pushed back to Saturday then suspended on Saturday after just an inning of play.

Series Preview

Rome is headed home this week to take on an awful Wilmington Blue Rocks team, the High-A affiliate for the Washington Nationals. Wilmington is somehow 19-18, but they have a run differential of -34, expected win-loss of 15-22, and have the fewest home runs in the South Atlantic League by a margin of 35% below the next-worst. The team has only three top 30 prospects, with the best being Baseball America’s #13 prospect Daylen Lile. Lile has been the team’s best hitter this season with a .774 OPS. Also on the roster is our old friend Trey Harris, who has struggled in sporadic playing time this season.

Augusta GreenJackets

Record: 17-21, 4th in CAR South (4 GB)

It’s rough times in SRP Park if you like to see offense, as the GreenJackets are scuffling at the plate but excelling on the mound. Diego Benitez has had a rough year all around, but may be showing some signs of recovery as he adjusts to Single-A pitching. Last week he hit a moonshot of a home run, and also only struck out four times in 19 plate appearances. I won’t sit here and say that Benitez has been good, but he has clearly adjusted after being far too aggressive early this season. Over his past ten games Benitez has a 94 wRC+, which is heavily dampened by a .211 BABIP, has cut his strikeout rate below 30%, and is walking 19.5% of the time. He’s had a handful of outstandingly bad games, like four strikeouts on May 9th, but overall the competitive at bats are becoming more frequent and he is rewarding the confidence I had in his hit tool earlier this year. Benitez’s problems mainly stem from recognizing breaking balls and pitch selection, and he seems to be making notable progress there.

Adam Maier has exceeded all expectations, coming in an immediately dominating. Last week was a new level of success for him as he struck out a career-high eight batters across six scoreless innings. Maier has been dominant with his slider and sinker this year, and that’s without particularly using his split-changeup as often as he did in college. A two year competitive layoff does seem to have impacted his feel for the pitch, which isn’t particularly surprising given how much that pitch moves for him, but he’s managed to have success despite mediocre results with his best pitch. Garrett Baumann hasn’t been able to find strikeouts early in his career, and largely that’s due to him not being able to find consistent success with his slider. Against left handed batters he has turned in a 23.6% strikeout rate with the use of his changeup, but only managed to strike out 12.6% of right handed hitters. Baumann has still had a ton of success despite not having a real breaking ball, posting an ERA below two this season and producing ground balls at an absurd rate. He commands the ball well for his age and already has feel for a change, so if he can learn to spin a breaking ball there is loads of potential for him.

Series Preview

Augusta will be starting the second half of their 12 game homestand against the Kannapolis Cannon Ballers of the White Sox organization, and the Cannon Ballers have a strong pitching staff that could give Augusta trouble. Kannapolis has three qualified starters with an ERA below 3, in addition to 2023 third round pick Seth Keener who has a 3.19 ERA on the season. That said they aren’t particularly prospect-laden, with Grant Taylor (BA #21) and Keener (BA #22) being the top two prospects on the roster.

FCL Braves

Record: 2-10, 6th in FCL South (6.5 GB)

The FCL Braves managed to win a couple of game, but seem to still be the clear worst team in the Complex at the moment. It’s been a major struggle to score runs, but there has been a few glimmers of hope. John Estevez was one of the top players for the DSL Braves last season and had a solid week, notching his first long ball of the year in last Monday’s game. In addition Douglas Glod seems to be getting on base more and drawing some walks. John Gil also had more walks than strikeouts last week, but that’s about all we can really say for the roster as they’ve been pretty abysmal.

Other News and Notes:

Isaiah Drake and Leiker Figueroa were activated from the injured list and will join the Augusta GreenJackets this week.

Three Braves minor leaguers won their respective league’s pitcher of the week title.

Triple-A went to Zach Logue, who made a spot start for the team in a double header and pitched seven scoreless innings.

The Southern League pitcher of the week went to Ian Mejia, and yeah that one was pretty obvious.

Then finally in High-A Owen Murphy won pitcher of the week with his eleven strikeout performance.

If you have time as well check out the most recent episode of Peach State Prospects, where we go in depth on Spencer Schwellenbach following his promotion to Double-A