Licking a gaping wound probably doesn’t help, but what choice do they have?
At this point, all the usual game coverage stuff feels a little naff-y. “What’s up with the Braves?” They’ve sucked, that’s what. “Can you give me some context?” The context is: it’s been bad. Awful. They’re the only winless team in the majors, have had some of the worst hitting performances you’ll ever see, have made a bunch of mental mistakes in-game beyond the more damning, ostensible organization-level mistake of altering the prior offensive approach, and the pitching has been inconsistent at best. So, the bottom line is that the Braves will finally try to pull a win out of somewhere when they open up Truist Park for the 2025 season with a three-game set against the Marlins.
Miami suffered through another terrible season in a franchise history full of ‘em in 2024, losing 100 games for the fourth time in franchise history. After barely sneaking into the playoffs in 2023, the Marlins once again failed to do so in 2024, meaning that they’ve never had back to back playoff appearances since starting play in 1993. The position player crew was woeful for Miami on both sides of the ball, and the pitching staff was terrible despite an insanely-good all-hands-on-deck bullpen performance because the starting pitching… imploded doesn’t quite describe it… ceased to exist, more like. Lost between time and space. Something like that.
Anyway, new head honcho Peter Bendix continues to remake the franchise in his image, and canned the entire coaching staff last season. This season? So far, so good-ish — though the Marlins are projected to be really bad again, they’re 4-3 at this point, one of only two teams in the division with a winning record. They took three of four against the Pirates to open the season, with each of those three wins coming on a walkoff, and then last two of three to the Mets. A lot of their relievers have struggled so far, but both Otto Lopez and Kyle Stowers have killed it in the early going, with .400+ wOBAs and xwOBAs.
Friday, April 4, 7:15 p.m. EDT (Fanduel Sports South/Southeast, Gray TV)
RHP Max Meyer (1 GS, 5 2⁄3 IP, 41 ERA-, 83 FIP-, 61 xFIP-)
Highly-touted prospect Max Meyer got 11 starts of rope in 2024 and mostly struggled, tallying -0.3 fWAR, in large part because of homer issues: he had a 144 FIP- but “just” a 109 xFIP- in that span. His HR/FB rate is again in the 20 percent range this year, though that came in one start where he dazzled with a 7/1 K/BB ratio in 5 2⁄3 innings against the Pirates. The Braves faced him twice last year: he had arguably his best career start ever against them in April (7/0 K/BB ratio, one run allowed), but then they tagged him for three homers in five innings in August (despite a 7/1 K/BB ratio). Hopefully the Braves figure out a return to their homer proclivities soon, because if they don’t, Meyer is likely going to pose a problem.
RHP Spencer Schwellenbach (1 GS, 6 IP, 0 ERA-, 66 FIP-, 94 xFIP-)
Schwellenbach followed up his brilliant rookie season with a nice shutdown of the Padres (4/0 K/BB ratio, a hit-by-pitch) that the Braves ended up losing 1-0 on a ricochet off the pitcher into a dugout, because of course they did. He’s faced the Marlins once before and had a really weird game: it was arguably his best pitching performance in some ways as he managed a 10/0 K/BB ratio in seven innings, but he also gave up two homers early on, though the Braves battled back late to win it.
Saturday, April 5, 7:15 p.m. EDT (Fanduel Sports South/Southeast)
TBD
The Marlins haven’t announced a starter here. Theoretically, this is Cal Quantrill’s spot in the rotation, but Quantrill was horrible in four innings in his 2025 debut on the heels of a not-any-good 2024, so it remains to be seen what they’ll do here.
RHP AJ Smith-Shawver (1 GS, 4 IP, 117 ERA-, 82 FIP-, 102 xFIP-)
It was an okay debut for Smith-Shawver against the Padres last week. Sometimes he showed great stuff, sometimes he got hit hard, sometimes he randomly walked a bunch of guys and looked like a raw, mechanical mess — all in four innings. With Reynaldo Lopez down and Spencer Strider still rehabbing, the Braves will likely keep him in the rotation for the time being. They can definitely abide (and would kill for) an 80ish FIP- (or more realistically, a 100ish FIP-), but things might get dicier if he can’t even replicate that sort of thing.
Sunday, April 6, 1:35 p.m. EDT (Fanduel Sports South/Southeast)
TBD
Again, no announcement from the Marlins here, but to the Braves’ chagrin, this is technically Sandy Alcantara’s turn in the rotation. The Marlins could opt to give him a breather for an extra day, but they didn’t for his first two starts, so we’ll see. Alcantara has basically picked up where he left off and then some through two starts so far: a career-high strikeout rate, a 96/82/64 line, and so on and so forth. Aside from the fact that he’s only totaled nine innings in two games due to understandable application of kid gloves, it’d be hard to tell that this was a guy that missed the entire year last year coming back from Tommy John Surgery.
RHP Grant Holmes (2 G, 1 GS, 5 IP, 188 ERA-, 156 FIP-, 127 xFIP-)
The Braves gave Holmes a very deserved shot to establish himself in the rotation after a beautiful and surprising 2024 season where he notched an 85/81/87 line, but he absolutely imploded against the Dodgers in a pitching disaster the team absolutely did not need given their struggles everywhere else. What’s funnier is that Holmes looked like his regular dominant self making a surprising relief appearance against the Padres on Opening Day, so it’s not clear exactly what’s going on there. Despite his good numbers overall, Holmes kinda struggled against the Marlins in two starts last season, not getting out of the fifth in either, and giving up three homers in the process.