The 2023 NL MVP, Ronald Acuña Jr, is coming off one of the most impressive seasons in recent memory. Acuña was the first player in MLB history to record 40+ home runs and 70+ stolen bases in a season. He did all of this while hitting .337, nonetheless. Acuña is still only 26 years old and is one of the faces of baseball. He can do it all, from power to speed and everything in between. Last season was so beyond impressive that predicting his 2024 season is quite difficult. However, taking a glance at Ronald Acuña Jr.’s 2024 projections from Baseball Reference, it’s hard not to take extreme offense to these numbers.
| Tm | Age | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | SH | 2024 | Proj. | 26 | 621 | 540 | 110 | 165 | 30 | 2 | 30 | 81 | 47 | 11 | 68 | 109 | .306 | .391 | .535 | .926 | 289 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 85% |
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Ronald Acuña Jr. 2024 Projections
As you can see in the image above, Acuña’s numbers are projected to take a huge dropoff. It is difficult to replicate the numbers that he put up a season ago, but with his batting average dropping by .031 and his home run total dropping by 11, something seems off. Is there something that they know that the public doesn’t? He is nursing a minor knee injury but is expected to make a full recovery very soon. Another interesting projection is his .926 OPS, which sat at 1.012 last year. Finally, after a 106 RBI campaign in 2023, He is only projected to hit 81 RBI this season.
Reason For Lower Projections
Excluding 2020 (the shortened season), Acuña has only played 125.4 games per season. However, the two times in his career where he played over 120 games, he finished in the top 5 in MVP voting and even won the award once. Just like many other faces of the league, health has been a concern. Other key players, including Mike Trout and Aaron Judge, could be labeled as injury-prone. No analyst out there would ever dare to question Acuña’s talent. They are simply relying on the fact that he has been injured for a noticeable portion of his career and that has held his projections back slightly.
My Projections
Here you can see my advanced projections for Acuña and average several numbers and insights. He will likely not have as strong of a 2024 season, but Baseball Reference is way too harsh on this young star. Hopefully, he can follow up his MVP season with another MVP-caliber year. His success is absolutely crucial for the success of the Atlanta Braves. One of the most dangerous leadoff hitters in all of baseball, Acuña will look to prove doubters wrong once again in 2024.
Photo Credit: © Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
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