Bryce Elder has struggled, but so has his opponent
The Atlanta Braves are taking on the St. Louis in the finale of a three-game series in an early day matchup. The series is currently split and the Braves are looking to win their fifth game out of six.
The Braves are still rolling with Bryce Elder, even though he has been one of the worst starting pitchers in MLB since the second half of 2023.
Elder currently sports a 7.20 ERA, 7.03 FIP, 1.533 WHIP and a 2.00 SO/BB ratio after 15.0 innings pitched over three games started this season. Since July ninth of 2023 (which is when he started his drop-off), he has had the second worst fWAR of any pitcher in MLB with at least 100.0 IP. During that time, he has a 6.19 ERA, 5.25 FIP, and 4.64 xFIP. If you want to get even granular, he has been the worst in terms of fWAR of those with at least 130.0 IP.
To his credit, he has been very good at producing ground balls this season with a 53.8 percent rate. Only 17.0 percent of qualified pitchers have a higher rate. Hitters have also struggled to have a high average exit velocity with 87.2 MPH (best 22.0 percent of MLB). He has also been a bit unlucky with his 68.8 percent strand rate in comparison to his career 72.9 percent. He has shown some signs of his slider (his most thrown pitch) seeing a positive regression to the mean. Hitters are currently hitting .333 against it, but his xBA against it is .244.
That being said, almost everything else is going poorly for Elder thus far. Signs don’t show much positive regression to the mean coming anytime soon. Elder does have two minor league options remaining according to Fangraphs, so he may be on a short leash.
Considering that the Braves had to use an opener yesterday, that may work in Elder’s favor.
Over the past week, the Braves’ offense has shown some life in comparison to the first part of the season. Since April fifteenth, the Braves are right in the middle of the pack with the fifteenth most runs scored, which sporting the twelfth best fWAR and thirteenth best wRC+.
Fortunately for the Braves, they are facing the Cardinal’s version of Elder in Mile Mikolas, who has a 7.64 ERA on the season.
Game Info
Game Date/Time: Sunday, April 23, 12:15 p.m. EDT
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, Ga
TV: FanDuel Sports South, Southeast
Streaming: MLB.tv (free)
Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan