The Braves’ bats will look to make things happen against Tampa Bay starter Taj Bradley.
At this point, I wouldn’t blame you for mentally associating the phrase “persona non grata” with Bryce Elder… but the Braves likely don’t agree, which is why he’s starting tonight’s series opener against the Tampa Bay Rays. This is likely going to be a weird series: it starts on the same day the Braves’ prior series technically ended (thanks, rain delay and extra innings!), it takes place at a Spring Training/Florida State League park because of the hurricane damage to Tropicana Field displacing the Rays for the 2025 season, and, well, the Braves are giving Bryce Elder another start.
The rise and fall of the Braves’ fifth-round pick in the truncated 2020 MLB Draft has been extensively documented at this point. Elder had a nice run against mediocre competition at the tail end of the 2022 season, and despite not making the Opening Day roster, pitched so well over his first 15 starts of 2023 that he earned an All-Star selection, of all things. That version of Elder was fortunate, but also quite good even aside from that, with a 54 ERA-, 87 FIP-, and 84 xFIP-. But then, things fell apart. Elder was absolutely destroyed in his next three outings, including what was arguably the worst start of his career, an 0/4 K/BB effort against the Rays in which he also allowed two homers and lasted for just ten outs. His final 16 starts of 2023 were poor: 121/121/122 — fifth-starter quality at best. That pushed Elder into a sixth starter role for 2024, where he only made ten MLB starts, and had an unfortunate 157/114/97 line, without enough exposure (whether for good or for ill) for his ERA and FIP to normalize to his xFIP. He wasn’t in the team’s rotation plans for 2025, either, at least not until Reynaldo Lopez went on the shelf.
If you do think of Elder as persona non grata, then I suppose the good news for you is that he is likely heading right on back to Gwinnett once the Braves activate Spencer Strider from his stint on the Injured List. But, the bad news is that he’s starting tonight, anyway. His first start probably went how you expected it to against the mighty Los Angeles Dodgers: four innings, three strikeouts, two walks, two homers… and a Braves loss, albeit of the walkoff, not-directly-Elder’s-fault variety. So, Elder gets another shot tonight against a team that’s hit pretty well, in a weird park. Expectations are pretty low, and it’s unlikely that anything he does will change his roster status going forward, but the Braves could certainly use a good effort from him anyway.
As for the Braves’ bats, they’ll be taking aim at Taj Bradley tonight, assuming they’re amped up from last night’s/this morning’s win over the Phillies, and not tired from that whole late affair. The 24-year-old Bradley was a fifth-round pick of the Rays back in 2018 out of Redan High in Stone Mountain, GA, made his MLB debut in 2023, and has had a frustrating career since. Performance-wise, he’s pitched like a generic starter: 2.5 fWAR in 253 2⁄3 innings to date is almost too twee-ly generic to be believable, but there it is. However, the peripherals have been weird: Bradley has a career 119/108/88 line, and has run elevated ERAs, FIPs driven upward by overly high HR/FBs, all while posting great strikeout rates and not really struggling with walks. It’s possible that he struggles more from the stretch or something along those lines, but right now, it really just looks like a weird thing that’ll sort itself out eventually — though that’s little consolation for his line as it is.
Bradley had a great season debut, with a 7/0 K/BB ratio and two runs charged to him in six innings against the Rockies. His second start was much poorer, with a 7/4 K/BB ratio in five innings, but also two homers yielded and four total runs charged to his ledger — the Rangers basically elevated everything and had it work for them.
Something to watch for Bradley is that he throws a hard splitter that is, if not straight-up unique, an extreme rarity. It’s a devastating pitch, and the reason why Bradley isn’t basically riding it to superb success is because he really struggles with fastball command despite its great shape. It’s a fastball meant to get whiffs at the top of the zone, but Bradley has it drift belt-to-letters way too often, and it gets brutalized. The Braves will likely need to do the same to have a good offensive start to this game.
Game Info
Game Date/Time: Friday, April 11, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Location: George M. Steinbrenner Field, Tampa, FL
TV: FanDuel Sports South/Southeast
Streaming: MLB.tv
Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan