Chris Sale’s first year in Atlanta was a smashing success. In what now feels like a distant memory, several Braves fans grumbled when Alex Anthopoulos traded top prospect Vaughn Grissom for the former Red Sox ace in late December 2023. These concerns were certainly warranted at the time as Sale, 35, had thrown a total of 155 innings over the previous four seasons due to countless injuries, including a torn ulnar collateral ligament and fractures to his ribs, left pinkie finger, and right wrist. In response, the lefty turned in the best season of his 15-year Hall of Fame career.
Can Chris Sale Continue His Success After a Landmark 2024 Season?
It was a resurgence for the ages that appealed to baseball traditionalists and advanced stat-heads alike. Over 29 starts (177.2 innings), Sale led the National League in wins (18), ERA (2.38), and strikeouts (225) and won the pitching triple crown, as well as FIP (2.09), ERA+ (174), and HR/9 (0.5). Predictably, this resulted in numerous additions to his trophy case, with the veteran taking home the NL Cy Young Award, Comeback Player of the Year Award, and a Gold Glove Award. Sale was exceptional from start to finish, and now you won’t find a single Braves fan questioning the trade.
Can Sale Repeat This Performance?
Such a season following so many major injuries is nearly unprecedented in baseball’s long history, making forecasting Sale’s encore campaign difficult. However, two things are strong bets: if healthy, he will remain a well-above-average pitcher in the league, but some regression from his historic 2024 numbers is almost certain. Indeed, Fangraphs projects a slight decrease in K/BB, large increases in ERA and FIP, and 1.8 fewer fWAR. These projected marks are closer to his career averages and would leave him as a still-elite performer but perhaps not a repeat runaway Cy Young Award winner.
Sale’s fresh arm after throwing minimal innings toward the end of his Red Sox tenure can surely explain some of his success last year. This is reflected in his nasty stuff, according to Baseball Savant. His signature pitch, the slider, was as good or better than in his prime years, generating a ridiculous .175 xBA, .212 xwOBA, and 21.7% hard hit percentage. Similarly, his changeup was better than ever. The four-seamer was not quite as dominant as his 2016-2018 levels (likely due to age and mitigating injury risk), but it remained a respectable complement to the off-speed (yes, Sale threw more sliders than fastballs in 2024).
Coming off his first full workload in five years and entering his age-36 season, it would be reasonable to expect a slight decline in the effectiveness of Sale’s repertoire. He must offset this by maintaining his excellent control if this is the case.
Is He Really Over The Injuries?
When it appeared Sale would finally make it through an entire year healthy, back spasms cropped up in September. This forced him to miss the Wild Card Series against San Diego, a death blow for Atlanta’s season. While back spasms are minor compared to other fluky injuries Sale has endured over the years, it raised old concerns that surely linger into 2025 for some Braves fans. Ironically, Atlanta will need Sale healthy and available to an even higher degree following the departures of rotation stalwarts Max Fried and Charlie Morton and co-ace Spencer Strider’s uncertain return from an internal brace procedure. As such, the indispensable Sale’s health will be worth monitoring throughout the season.
Career years in the mid-30s are rarities for starting pitchers in the MLB. To do it coming off consecutive major injuries is unheard of. Predicting that Sale will replicate such a historic season is probably asinine, but the fiery veteran falling off a cliff seems equally unlikely. One thing for certain is that the NL East will be a gauntlet in 2025, so the Braves will need Chris Sale to show up in a big way once again to reach their goals.
Main Photo Credits: Chris Tilley-Imagn Images
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