The Braves still have a chance to add onto their rotation, with Marcus Stroman being one of those options.
We’ve gotten 11 inches of snow in the past week. It’s probably the most snow I’ve seen in that short of a time since I was in college, and that included some ice along with shutting down most of Kentucky for a few days.
It just happens to coincide with my two-year old son really starting to interact with the world, have his own preferences (and his own big emotions), and starting to make some memories. We’ve also been watching some Frozen, and during the holidays, he never stopped pointing out any snowmen he saw.
So out into the snow we went to make a snowman. It’s … not elaborate, but it’s certainly enough for him to recognize it as such. He is now very concerned about the snowman and making sure its hat stays on. It was worth it.
With news that the Yankees are willing to eat some salary to move Marcus Stroman, is he?
Marcus Stroman is no longer a strong 2/3 like he was from 2019-2021, and whether he is even a back-end rotation starter now is up for debate due to his ERA and FIP rising to the mid-4s in 2024. It’s why the Yankees are willing to part with him after adding Max Fried to a rotation with Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, and Luis Gil.
But Mark, that’s like 4 starters.
The next two starters for the Yankees are Clarke Schmidt and Will Warren. I feel like Clarke Schmidt has been around forever as a top(ish) prospect turned disappointing rookie, but he turned into a solid starting pitcher last season over 80+ innings, striking out 9.81 per 9 along with walking 3.16 per 9 for a 3.58 FIP. ZIPs thinks that’s legit as it projects him for a 3.80 FIP for 2025.
Will Warren is currently in his Disappointing Rookie Phase after posting a 10.32 … holy schmoly … 10.32 ERA. His peripherals were better, and as you might expect, players generally get at least a little better after they settle into the majors (if they can indeed survive the transition to the majors), which is why ZIPs has him at a 4.08 FIP after posting a 4.93 FIP (4.00 xFIP) in 2024.
Marcus Stroman is projected at a 4.38 FIP, so yeah, it’s reasonable to think the other two are at least as good as he is.
Okay, but I guess is that better than what the Atlanta Braves currently have?
The answer to your question is maybe.
Chris Sale, Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach, and Reynaldo Lopez are all clearly better, but we gotta remember that Strider isn’t likely available for the start of the season. Given that several pitchers struggled to come back from Tommy John last season at all (Luis Garcia, German Marquez, and Liam Hendriks) or had early struggles in coming back (Walker Buehler), it’s not a given that Strider just comes back rifling fastballs through the zone immediately.
Following those 4 are Bryce Elder (4.07 projected FIP), AJ Smith-Shawver (4.18), and Ian Anderson (4.17). We’ve done the Bryce Elder thing, and I think we can move on. AJSS is a lot of fun, but he walked over 4 per 9 in AAA and MLB both last season, so it’s at least worth some pause. And Anderson … well, let’s just say I’m not sold there, either.
So you’re saying we should go get Stroman then …
But the one guy I’d love to see get a chance is Grant Holmes. In 33.2 innings as a starting pitcher last season, he struck out 10.69 per 9 and walked 2.41 per 9, good for a 3.91 FIP and 3.30 xFIP. Now, that’s only over 33 innings, and there’s a good chance that guy who hasn’t pitched more than … you know what, let’s not look at that … who hasn’t pitched a lot of innings in a season either can’t complete a whole season like that at the same pace he was on in 2024 or stay healthy long enough to find out.
But I think the Braves should give him a shot to do so. His Statcast numbers are pretty good and give me a little faith that the numbers are at least somewhat legit.
While I’m not convinced the Chase% will stay that high after teams get a few looks at him, that brings him back to more of what Stroman is going to give you anyway (below), just at a much smaller price.
Pukes.
Ultimately, I am using Stroman as a bit of a literary device here, and while the current narrative is that Atlanta needs to add a starting pitcher, I’m not that convinced.
Sale, Lopez, and Schwellenbach are penciled in as the top 3 entering the season, and I think Grant Holmes did enough for Atlanta to give him a real shot at the rotation entering 2025, certainly at least for the month or so Strider is predicted to miss. Once Strider comes back (sometime) in May, he’s going in the rotation whether he’s all the way back or not, and he’s likely to stay in there to work it out.
And that leaves the other arms to duke it out for the fifth spot for April. AJSS would be my preference (barring whatever Spring Training brings), and the Braves still have Hurston Waldrep hanging out as well.
And Bry …
Don’t you dare say his name … but yeah, he’s there.
Neither top (for the Braves) prospect had an amazing 2024, but they’ve both provided enough in their professional careers to think there might be some improvements in the Spring, worth enough to take the 5th spot for a month or so. You could argue the month audition is something the Braves should do just to see what they have.
So for April and part of May, that’s a rotation of Sale, Lopez, Schwellenbach, Holmes, and [insert prospect here]. You’ll now argue that an injury or set of injuries are possible, and I’ll agree. But moves can still happen, and I’m perfectly happy if the Braves make a trade (Pablo Lopez, please) or a free-agent signing (Jack Flaherty on a short-term deal would be been nice, but also so would’ve been Buehler but I digress). The team should try to get better, but this isn’t specifically an area of dire need.
And if all else fails by the time Spring Training is rolling around, my guess is that Stroman is still hanging out in a Yankees uniform, ready to be traded. And if not … oh well.