The Atlanta Braves are down two key pieces of their bullpen. A LHP could go a long way in helping.
The Atlanta Braves finally made a big splash and signed Jurickson Profar to sure up the outfield situation, as well as some infield depth if needed. Now, there is one area that has been weakened significantly since the end of the 2024 season.
The bullpen was a strength for the Braves. They were third in MLB in both ERA and fWAR. However, the tides have turned pretty quickly in this regard. A.J. Minter left in free agency to the rival Mets, Joe Jiménez is likely out for the season, and Jesse Chavez just signed a minors deal with the Rangers.
Currently, the opening day bullpen without any additions will probably look something like Raisel Iglesias, Dylan Lee, Pierce Johnson, Aaron Bummer, Daysbel Hernández, Angel Perdomo, Anderson Pilar, and potentially Dylan Dodd.
These names could obviously change, but looking at the list it points to a few things. First, the bullpen is very top heavy. There are players that bring confidence, but that confidence drops pretty quickly as you go further along the list. Second, although the Braves do have four LHP in the group listed above, two of them are Dylan Dodd and Angel Perdomo. The hole left by A.J. Minter is clear. The Braves could use another lefty in the bullpen.
There are some intriguing lefty options to explore
It seems to be a trend that the Braves are not looking to spend like some thought they would, so it leads to believe they would look for financially cheap arms. This could mean a trade would need to happen, or they would need to be okay with what free agents that are left on the market that will not demand much.
Bob Kupbens-Imagn Images
The first arm that sticks out as an intriguing option is T.J. McFarland. He is not a splashy move, but could help sure up the back end of the bullpen at a cheap cost. He is only due $1.8MM this season. Alex Anthopoulos has completed trades in the past with David Forst of the Athletics, so there is a chance they could do it again.
McFarland led the league in games played last season with seventy-nine, while holding opponents to a 3.81 ERA and 3.82 FIP. This also included a decent WHIP of 1.235.
His underlying metrics looked even better. His Expected ERA (xERA) was 3.36 which was in the best 23.0 percent of MLB. He was also elite at producing groundballs. He produced groundballs 59.4 percent of the time. Only 3.0 percent of other pitchers in MLB had a better rate.
It should go without saying that with that many groundballs, hitters struggled hitting the ball hard and were limited to only a 34.9 percent hard-hit rate. Only 19.0 percent of pitchers were better at limiting hard hits.
There is a downside to bringing in McFarland though. Since 2015 (when Statcast started tracking), 2024 was by far his best season. He has not had an xERA below 4.73 since 2018. The Braves would be gambling that 2024 was not a fluke on a guy who does not miss many bats.
Bob Kupbens-Imagn Images
Another option could come via free agency. Scott Alexander is elite at a very specific skill. He is a left on lefty specialist. In the old rules where you were able to face just one hitter, we has what was known as a LOOGY. Because of this, he has to be used in very specific situations.
Connor Ashford of Athletics Nation did an excellent summary explaining how the Athletics used him last season.
Alexander pitched in only 38.2 innings last season, but that was by design. 44.6 percent of plate appearances against him were lefty hitters. This was on purpose and he completely dominated these hitters. They slashed .161/.209/.210 against him. He also had a 7.00 strikeout to walk ratio against them.
The down side is that his numbers against righties were not nearly as good. Righty hitters hit .274/.374/.442 against him last season. That is obviously not ideal.
There are significantly fewer lefty hitters than righties. Only 42.4 percent of plate appearances last season were from the left side. That being said, odds are the Braves could pick him up cheap and use him in his very specific role of when there is a lefty heavy lineup.
David Frerker-Imagn Images
Finally, another intriguing option, which may seem odd at first, is exploring a trade with the Marlins for Andrew Nardi. He had a terrible ERA last season. His 5.07 ERA is not what the Marlins were hoping for. However, a reliever’s ERA is much more volatile than a starter because they pitch far fewer innings.
If we dig into his body of work, we see something that is intriguing. His FIP (which is independent of fielding behind him) was a much better 3.33. He also had a solid WHIP of 1.248. His strikeout rates have been fantastic all three years of his career. This past season he had a strikeout rate of 12.7 per nine innings to only 3.3 walks per nine innings.
Like Alexander, he performs better against lefties. He did not perform great against righties last season where they had a .849 OPS against him. However, this hitters were very fortunate against him with a BABIP of .351, considering the league average last season was .291.
His underlying metrics show good signs too. His xERA was in the best 7.0 of MLB at 2.76. His xBA was also excellent at .194. This was in the best 6.0 of MLB. These numbers are largely due to him having elite swing and miss stuff. His chase rate was in the best 8.0 percent of MLB, and his Whiff rate was in the best 13.0 percent. Add these together and it resulted in only 4.0 percent of pitchers in MLB having a higher strikeout rate than him.
His strikeout rate was not his only solid attribute either. Hitters struggled to make hard contact with a hard-hut rate of 34.7 percent. This was in the best 19.0 percent of MLB.
These numbers do not appear to be an anomaly either. His 2023 underlying metrics were arguably even better.
Should the Marlins be willing to move him, the Braves may be able to get them to sell low due to his poor ERA in 2024. He is still under team control through the 2028 season.
Summary
The Braves could use a lefty reliever, and there are some intriguing options. It does not appear that the Braves will want to break the bank to get one, but there are options that could sure up the back end of the bullpen.
T.J. McFarland, Scott Alexander, and/or Andrew Nardi all make a ton of sense if the deal is right. Time will tell what will happen as the offseason is inching closer to the end.