There’s no real way to know, not yet, but stuff looks weird.
The Braves have been through just four (albeit, what a four…) games on the 2025 season, but things look weird. Sure, the grouches among you might say, “What’s weird about a team sucking on offense again?” — but the Braves finished last year with a top-10 xwOBA and an average wOBA, so let’s move right on past that. Instead, I submit to you the following for consideration, even though it’s been just those four games:
Look at that massive z-swing drop! Z-Contact is up, which is weird for this team, and the o-contact combined with the lack of z-swing basically gives you the issue in total. Another notable thing is that the Padres really didn’t like throwing it in the zone to the Braves. As far as ranks go, right now:
- O-swing: 13th (was 13th last year)
- Z-swing: 24th (!!!!!!!!!!!!) (was far and away first last year)
- O-contact: 3rd (was 25th last year)
- Z-contact: 15th (was 28th last year)
- Zone rate: 29th (was 23rd last year)
Again, it’s four games, but yikes. This team was all about swinging at strikes hard, even if it missed them. In these four games, it’s been about… watching strikes go by and using a protect swing to hit balls? That doesn’t seem right, but it is. The other piece of this sad puzzle is that the team went from being a top xwOBACON team (as usual) to a bottom-five xwOBACON team, no doubt because of that insane o-contact rate. Further, a bunch of other teams (Dodgers, Yankees, Orioles, Phillies) that are also generally in the “maximize xwOBACON” game are still doing that, so it’s mostly the Braves that look weird.
If we go player-by-player, we can see that:
- Austin Riley does not appear to be affected by whatever is happening;
- Jarred Kelenic, Michael Harris II, and Orlando Arcia are big problems with just horrible-looking plate discipline lines that look backwards and problematic in every way;
- Marcell Ozuna is swinging way less at everything, but making more o-contact and less z-contact than before;
- Matt Olson is swinging way less too, but making more contact than before (and with his barrel rate, might be the poster child for whatever they’re trying working, assuming they are trying something different as a team);
- Ozzie Albies is swinging way less for once, but also making less contact across the board.
This certainly seems like an approach in transition, but it also could be a weird four games (in addition to all the other ways it was a weird four games).
Anyway, we’ll keep getting more data rolling in, but what do you think? Have the Braves changed their approach, or are you solely on the side of “this is a blip and nothing has changed?”
Daily Notes
Record: 0-4
Yesterday’s wOBA and xwOBA: .058 | .250 (Season rank: 29th | 28th)
Yesterday’s wOBA and xwOBA allowed: .379 | .353 (Season rank: 21st | 8th)
Yesterday’s homers: 0
Yesterday’s homers allowed: 0
Record when out-xwOBAing: 0-2 (League: 33-17)
Record when out-xwOBAed: 0-2 (League: 17-33)
Record when out-wOBAing: 0-1 (League: 42-9)
Record when out-wOBAed: 0-3 (League: 9-42)
Record when outhomering: 0-1 (League: 27-5)
Record when outhomered: 0-1 (League: 5-27)