Did our early season 2024 prognostications come true?
We are in the final days of 2024 but before we embark on a new year and a new season, join us in taking a look back on our early season prognostications to see how correct or incorrect the “Battery Power Almanac” (BPA) was or was not on this past Atlanta Braves season.
If you forgot – or didn’t read the May 2nd post – click the link above. The TL;DR is the BPA is an analog, some-what tongue-in-cheek look at the season ahead to put an educated guess on how the rest of the season will play out.
Funny thing is, despite its limitations, this analog method has been surprisingly accurate in the past. Was it again this year?
2024 Win Total
When we wrote this up a month into the season, 87 wins seemed unfathomable based on pre-season expectations of the Braves. Yet by the time the 2024 campaign wrapped up, the Braves had won 89 games.
BPA prediction: 87-75
Actual: 89-73
A win for BPA.
Division and Post-Season
Based on the methods used, BPA thought the Braves streak of division championships would come to and end and they would sneak into the playoffs with a second-place finish in the NL East. The “coin flip” of making the playoffs would not end with a deep playoff run.
It took winning the last game of the season, but that is exactly what happened, with the Braves finishing second and grabbing a Wild Card spot.
BPA: prediction: 2nd in the NL East, no deep post-season run
Actual: 2nd in the NL East, Wild Card round exit
That’s 3-for-3 for the BPA, so far.
All-Stars
Hey now, you’re an All-Star. In 2024, BPA foretold three All-Stars for the Atlanta Braves. BPA did not have clarity on who those selections would be – one of which were correct – so we won’t hold BPA accountable for something it wasn’t sure on to begin with.
Four Braves made the All-Star game – Marcell Ozuna, Chris Sale, Reynaldo Lopez and the predicted Max Fried.
BPA prediction: Three All-Stars
Actual: Four All-Stars
We can’t give full-credit for this to BPA, but three is close to four, so we will give this 3⁄4 of a win with a total now of a typical Will Ospreay match rating of 4.75/5.
Post-Season Awards
BPA continued its fantastic fortunetelling by saying that no Braves player would win Most Valuable Player nor Rookie of the Year award. When it came to the National League Cy Young Award, it saw Fried and Sale as likely victors.
Fried dealt with some minor injury issues and didn’t pick-up any votes despite a season that was solid enough to pick-up some down-ballot votes. Lopez was stunningly good in his return to the rotation – finishing 11th in the writer’s vote.
But Chris Sale finally won himself a Cy Young award after spending most of the 2010s as the proverbial bridesmaid with seven consecutive top six finishes between 2012 and 2018. Sale picked-up 26 first-place votes after leading the NL in wins, ERA, strikeouts – the pitcher’s Triple Crown.
BPA prediction: No MVP, No ROY, Likely Cy Young.
Actual: Chris Sale, NL Cy Young Award
This is a win for the BPA in my book with a little extra credit for Sale as the 50/50 raffle winner. Call it 3.5 out of 3.0.
Best of the Braves
If BPA had nailed this, boy howdy. For position players, it went with Michael Harris II and for pitchers the choice was Fried with Lopez as a dark horse choice.
For pitchers, Lopez did finish second on the staff but it was Sale that was the winner.
For position players, despite missing 52 games due to injury, Harris II finished third but it was Ozuna – who finished 4th in the MVP vote that was the best position player (assuming you accept a designated hitter as a position player).
BPA prediction: Fried, Harris II
Actual: Sale, Ozuna
I’m not going to total shut-out BPA here, so I’ll give it .25 out of 2.0.
Final Tally
With 10 total predictions for the 2024 season, it was spot-on with seven of the predictions. The All-Star number was close although the best Braves player were close if you squint. With a little bonus on the Cy Young prediction, that ends the BPA predictor with …
8.5/10 for an 85-percent success rate.
If you aren’t a fan of extra credit, that’s still an 8 our of 10.
I’d take that 80-percent win-rate to the bank every day of the week. I’m curious to see how the 2025 BPA predicts the upcoming season. Keep an eye open in early May 2025 for that article.