What the first week of spring training lineups might betray about the Braves batting order plans for the early parts of 2025.
When Jurickson Profar signed with the Atlanta Braves, there was a lot of chatter about where he might hit in the lineup. I made the argument before he signed that Atlanta should sign him as the ideal 2-hole hitter in a healthy Braves lineup that has superstar Ronald Acuña Jr. at the top of the order. I still think that a productive Profar is likely to bat 2nd in the long run, but what about during the first month or so when Acuña Jr. is still rehabbing?
When Ronald wasn’t available last year, his spot was mostly replaced by Michael Harris II (when healthy). If Profar is set to hold the 2 spot long-term, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Harris lead off to start the year (perhaps with Ozzie leading off instead vs. LHP), and many had speculated that would be the case during the offseason. However, the early lineups in Spring Training seem to indicate otherwise.
For instance, in the Braves first home game of the spring, Harris was batting 5th in the order. Ahead of him? Eli White at leadoff, Riley 2nd, Olson 3rd, Ozuna 4th. In every game that Riley, Olson, Ozuna, and Harris have appeared in, they’ve batted in those exact spots.
It wasn’t hard to piece it together from there – the Braves were seemingly bumping everyone up one spot from where they would likely bat if Acuña was healthy. We got further confirmation that this was likely the case when Profar appeared at the top of the order in his spring debut on Wednesday.
That game vs. the Pirates on Wednesday gave us all of the Braves expected regulars, sans Murphy. Here was how they lined it up:
Profar LF
Riley 3B
Olson 1B
Ozuna DH
Harris II CF
Albies 2B
Kelenic RF
Arcia SS
Tromp C
In previous springs, the Braves have seemingly come into camp with an idea of how they plan to line it up on Opening Day. For example, if memory serves, Matt Olson hit 2nd throughout Spring Training in both 2022 and 2023, and that was where he opened each of those seasons before finding his way back to cleanup later on.
The Braves open their season in San Diego, where they will almost assuredly face a RHP in the first game (likely one of Michael King or Dylan Cease). Based on the early spring training lineups – and assuming health – I’d expect the Opening Day lineup to look exactly like the one that was featured Wednesday, except with Murphy slotting in ahead of Kelenic. When a lefty is on the mound in the weeks before Acuña’s return, I’d expect Bryan de la Cruz to take Kelenic’s place, and you may also see Harris and Ozzie switch spots. And when Ronald returns, I’d expect him to reclaim his place atop the order while everyone else moves down a spot.
As for Profar – who is maybe the best on-base threat on the team outside of Acuña – he should be an excellent fit at leadoff. Batting order splits have typically not been proven to be sticky year to year (which is probably why the team tried to move Olson back to the 2-hole in 2023 even after he seemingly thrived at cleanup in the latter half of 2022), but it’s hard to ignore Profar’s stellar work out of the leadoff spot in 2024. In 19 games and 83 PA, he had more walks (10.8% BB) than strikeouts (8.4% K) and slashed .380/.451/.620 for a 197 wRC+. The Braves aren’t expecting anything quite like that, but they should be thrilled if they get anything within 30 points of his overall .380 OBP from 2024.