I know it’s a little click-baity, but I am worried.
“If I was concerned about someone, it would be Albies. I think in general he seems pretty cooked (relative to how he was) – Statcast metrics didn’t like him and injuries seem to be actually piling up.” – Me
** stares at .244/.314/.436 line, which is good enough for a 110 wRC+ against his career 108 wRC+ **
I’ve never exactly been an Ozzie Albies “hater”, but I don’t think you could ever classify as one of his biggest fans, either. He doesn’t walk a lot. He’s really streaky at the plate. His swing from the left side looks like he’s swinging a tree trunk that’s too heavy for him to lift. And I was probably one of the first people to give him a hard time about how slow he is to turn a double play.
But at the same time, there’s always been a lot to like about him. His smile and attitude seem infectious. He doesn’t strike out a lot, and he’s got good pop for his position (not to mention his size). And he’s a legitimately good player.
But there’s been some instability over the last few years.
While his BABIP has been pretty stable, his wRC+ has gone from below-average to WOW to below-average again.
His games played have gone from 64 to 148 to 99.
His defensive value has gone from a little above average to below average to average.
His Statcast has gone from …
To …
To …
Looking at things like bat speed and exit velocity, it feels like the outlier really is the 2023 season with all that red. And that’s what led me to my pessimistic view of how Albies would do in 2025 and moving forward.
But feels isn’t really good enough, right? We’re here for analysis, so let’s take a look at the early-season returns. And I’ll have a couple follow-up posts as we go through the season to see how it goes.
Early-season looks are a little tenuous. There is a ton of noise, and everyone is still getting into the … swing of things.
Groan.
But we’re one-eighth of the way through the season, and we can probably see a few things.
On the surface, Ozzie is doing pretty well. His 110 wRC+ that I mentioned earlier is right around his career average, and if he were to do that all season, he’d be worth about 4 wins, which is a borderline All-Star caliber season. What does Statcast say?
Offensively, it’s pretty muted. Ozzie’s bat speed continues to worsen, and the exit velocity isn’t any better. But when you look at his BABIP, it’s .238, so you’re like “It’s bound to come up, right?” Eh, probably not if he doesn’t start swinging harder and making harder contact.
So why is his wRC+ so high then? Well, I’ll take your eyes toward that BB% number. A 9.3% walk rate would be his highest walk rate since his rookie season … by two whole percentage points. Remember when I said he doesn’t walk much? But is that for real?
You’ll see a couple things in this chart. One, he is swinging less at pitches out of the zone, but it’s not really a major change (but hey, it’s part of it). Two, he is swinging a lot less in general, as his Z-Swing% (swings at pitches in the zone) is WAY less than he’s ever done. So he’s been more passive/selective, and that’s confirmed with his actual Swing%.
But the other part that is fascinating is the 50% of first pitches for strikes. Albies hasn’t all of a sudden become a fearsome hitter where pitchers are afraid of him – we just talked about how he didn’t do very well last year – and being more passive/selective at the plate wouldn’t do anything to this. My guess is that this is an early-season aberration, and it’s been putting him in good counts, leading to more walks than usual (along with at least some of the explanation of why he’s swinging less, though that seems to be a team-wide strategy).
So in total, he’s making worse contact than he has previously when I was already worried, and the one thing he really had going for him isn’t something I think he’s bound to continue.
Defensively, I’m actually encouraged. He’s got some bad numbers above, but 2023 actually seems the aberration here. Albies can’t turn a double-play quickly to save his life, but he’s generally had good range, which is the most valuable defensive skill. If the offense is going to dip to average(ish), it’s good to be a positive with the glove.
Alright, so we’re like 20 games in. It’s too early to declare anything as far as the Atlanta Braves are concerned. But despite the early-season appearances of a bounceback, I’m not terribly convinced. I am cheering for him, though. There are few players who show the same joy for the game that Albies does, and we need more of that. We just need more indications that we can get back to 2023 with the bat.