Because it isn’t what I was expecting
Grant Holmes was a revelation last year: 85 ERA-, 81 FIP-, 87 xFIP-. I was all on board the “Give Grant Holmes starts” train when he had a 21/5 K/BB ratio in 23 1⁄3 innings as a long reliever in June and July last year, he was phenomenal in his first starting stint, and then ended the season worse but still interesting — a 98 xFIP- over his final 23 1⁄3 innings of the season, which was a mix of short-stint relief, long-stint relief, and three starts.
Projections were also on board with him having an average starter-ish level of talent that he could deploy in a swingman role. That’s pretty cool considering he was a 28-year-old rookie last year. So I was excited to see him get a lot of rope in the rotation.
But so far this year, I’m not getting what I thought I was going to out of Grant Holmes starts. Holmes got hammered by the Dodgers, which is fine and gonna happen, but he has a 17/10 K/BB ratio in 17 1⁄3 innings since. His lowest xFIP- in a start was 113 (against the Phillies). He had fantastic command of his breaking pitches last year, but it’s been more of a struggle this year, and as a result, nothing is really playing particularly well in a vacuum. What’s somewhat more disappointing is that his slider looks much more deadly from a pitch shape perspective, but whatever changes he’s made have killed his ability to get it into the same place consistently. (There’s a similar but more subtle change with his curve, and the curve’s command is correspondingly not as bad relative to the slider’s location being a complete mess right now.)
Maybe it’s on me for expecting more than fifth starter, replacement-level pitching from Holmes, but even so, I’m kinda bummed. Still, it’s a long season and at least he’s gotten good results in three straight starts, so maybe this will be the rare case where somehow the peripherals catch up to the outcomes instead of the other way around.
Daily Notes
Record: 8-13
Yesterday’s wOBA and xwOBA: .368 / .374 (Season rank: 18th | 11th)
Yesterday’s wOBA and xwOBA allowed: .251 / .309 (Season rank: 20th | 21st)
Yesterday’s homers: 3
Yesterday’s homers allowed: 1
Record when out-xwOBAing: 6-5 (League: 244-81)
Record when out-xwOBAed: 2-8 (League: 81-244)
Record when out-wOBAing: 8-2 (League: 278-48)
Record when out-wOBAed: 0-11 (League: 48-278)
Record when outhomering: 4-2 (League: 176-46)
Record when outhomered: 0-7 (League: 46-176)