It has been a quiet offseason for the Atlanta Braves. Let’s look at some intriguing trade options
It has been a surprisingly quiet offseason for the Atlanta Braves up to this point. It seems as though we have seen more news former players signing else ware than players acquired by the Braves.
There have been rumors swirling across social media, but none have seem to come to fruition. Mark Bowman had a source tell him that the Braves walked away from a Jeff Hoffman deal due to a failed physical, so there is at least some evidence that the Braves are working in the shadows to bring in more major league ready talent.
Per a source, Jeff Hoffman had a potential deal that was nixed when he failed a physical with the Braves’ medical staff. Hoffman also reportedly failed a physical with the Orioles before signing with the Blue Jays
— Mark Bowman (@mlbbowman) January 13, 2025
As we have seen in the past, Alex Anthopoulos seems to prefer the trade market over signing big free agents. This leads to the question on if he is currently kicking the tires on making a move. We can only guess who he could potentially be targeting at this point, but we can make some educated guesses based on areas that the Braves could use an upgrade in.
What positions make sense for the Braves to target?
Just like the season previously, left field was a disappointment. Factoring in every player that manned left field, the Braves ranked twenty-sixth in MLB in fWAR, and twenty-eighth if you only factor in offense. To be fair, with the injuries the Braves had, it led to start players like Eddie Rosario that they picked up off of waivers to fill the hole. That being said, this is still clearly an area that could be easily upgraded.
Shortstop was also a weak spot for the Braves. Orlando Arcia had a fantastic year by his standards in 2023, but he had a massive drop-off in 2024 offensively. Atlanta ranked twenty-seventh in fWAR at the position. Arcia has a very affordable contract being paid only $2MM this season. This could potentially lead to the Braves upgrading at shortstop and relegate Arcia to the backup infielder role.
Pitching was clearly a strength for the Braves last season. They led MLB in fWAR in overall pitching if you include both the rotation and bullpen. If you split the rotation and bullpen up, they also had the best rotation in terms of fWAR. They had the third best bullpen. The Braves did this without Spencer Strider, who should be back early this season. The Braves also have an overabundance of back end starters ready in the upper minors they could use to fill the fifth spot in the rotation should it come to it.
Needless to say, pitching is not an emergency to acquire. That being said, Max Fried and Charlie Morton left via free agency, and odds are we will see some regression from Reynaldo Lopez if we look at his underlying metrics. It would take an entire write up to explain Lopez’s likely regression, but to put it simply, his expected ERA (xERA) of 3.94 is much higher than his actual ERA of 1.99 was.
The Braves could also potentially lose A.J. Minter to free agency who has been one of the best lefty relievers in the sport, especially if you compare him to non-closers.
Potential targets
As a reminder, these will be purely ideas. Alex Anthopoulos works in the dark. That being said, we can look at teams who could line up as partners, as well as what the Braves would be looking for, and go from there. This list is also not all-inclusive.
Most of the time, teams that are in a competitive window do not trade away major league ready talent. They typically trade prospects, so teams like the Yankees, Dodgers, and Orioles (to name a few) likely will not be trading big name players to the Braves. The Braves line up better in a trade with teams that are not likely to be playoff contenders this season.
First let’s look at an out of the box idea. It is highly unlikely, but could be a fun one. The Angels quite simply will not be a serious World Series contender. However, they added heavily in comparison to many other teams in free agency already with former Braves Travis d’Arnaud, and Jorge Soler. They also added Yusei Kikuchi. So, it appears that they are trying to make a push for the postseason.
The shortstop market is weak this offseason. The free agent pool is thin, and most of the enticing shortstops are on teams that will likely be contending for a playoff spot. What if the Angels decide to capitalize this and put Zach Neto on the block? They could get a haul. He is coming off of an excellent season with a slash line of .249/.318/.443 with twenty-three HRs. This was worth 3.5 fWAR once you factor in his full body of work. He also is under team control through the 2029 season.
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All of this makes it unlikely for him to be moved as the Angels may view him as a core piece of their future. However, this also makes him an intriguing target for a team like the Braves who are trying to manage their payroll and stay under luxury tax thresholds. The Braves may be willing to move some serious prospect capitol for him since Nacho Alvarez seems to profile better as a second baseman.
The crop of available shortstops is very thin. Even teams like the Marlins, Nationals, and Pirates all have shortstops that they likely would not move. Unless the Braves can entice the Giants to trade them Tyler Fitzgerald since they signed Willy Adames instead of moving him to second base, or if the Braves are able to pull Xavier Edwards from the Marlins, odds are Orlando Arcia will once again break camp as the starting shortstop for the Atlanta Braves.
This moves us to left field, which statistically looks easy to upgrade. The Braves did add some depth in Bryan De La Cruz and potentially Garrett Cooper, but these players are by no means an upgrade.
One potential target would bring us back to the Angels. Again, they would have to be willing to move players, and they are in an odd spot where they are not true contenders but have added talent to try and compete. If the Braves can convince them to let go of a player, Taylor Ward makes a ton of sense. He could easily be a starter for the Braves, but if the Braves choose to run a platoon, he would also be a good right handed compliment to Jarred Kelenic.
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Over 2170 career plate appearances he has established himself as an above average offensive presence with a wRC+ of 111. He also has a career OPS of .805 against lefties should the Braves decide to split time between him and Kelenic.
Ward is not at the superstar level, so he may not be the big splash some fans would hope for, but he could affordable because of it. He also would be under team control through the 2026 season at an affordable price tag from a payroll standpoint since he is still in the arbitration phase of his career.
If we move on to pitching, a lefty reliever seems to stand out as the biggest area to upgrade of the bunch. Not only could Minter leave via free agency, but Joe Jiménez (although he is a righty) is likely out for the year.
If the Diamondbacks had not gone all in when they signed Corbin Burnes, A.J. Puk would have been a fun target. However, the odds of that happening is virtually zero now.
If the Braves want to go big, they could go for Tyler Holton of the Tigers. He would be expensive since he is under team control through the 2028 season, but he makes a ton of sense. Over 188.2 innings pitched over three seasons he owns an ERA of 2.19, WHIP of 0.837 and a very low walk rate of 1.8 walks per nine innings. He also started nine games last season. He could fill what the Braves seem to like to do. Convert relievers to starters if needed. He is a lefty that could be used in the pen, or make spot starts if needed. The issue here is that even though they finished third in their division, the Tigers went on a heater last year and likely view themselves as a playoff contender. Trading Holton could be a bad look for them. So, the odds are extremely low of this deal.
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As mentioned earlier, Holton could fill a rotation spot, but if the Braves feel a need to add a pure starter, there are not many obvious targets. Much like shortstops, many of the starting pitchers that would be worth targeting are either on teams that look to compete this year, or are likely untouchable due being likely building blocks of a rebuild.
Due to this, the Braves would likely be looking for someone that is not flashy. The Pirates may be willing to pay down some of Mitch Keller’s contract. He currently is on a base salary of $15MM. His 4.25 ERA last season and 2.2 fWAR may not be worth the money to the Pirates. In the right swap, the former second round pick could fit in the back of the rotation nicely for the Braves. He has good command with his walk rate being in the best 27.0 percent of MLB. The Pirates would have to eat quite a bit of the money, but if the price is right, he could be a steady arm in the rotation. He has pitched at least 159.0 innings every year since the start of 2022.
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Summary
With the way that Alex Anthopoulos operates, there is no telling what he will do. This is an odd offseason where there are not many obvious targets for positions the Braves may like to target.
We covered a few players that may make sense if the cards line up properly. In terms of likelihood they would probably rank as follows:
1. Mitch Keller
2. Taylor Ward
3. Zach Neto
4. Tyler Holton
The season is almost among us. Time will tell if the Braves make any trades.