Diving into 5 more projections before the Braves first spring training game.
For part one, click here.
Baseball is a beautiful, wonderful, stupid sport. It’s famously the most random major sport in the US, and it doesn’t take much searching to find numerous examples of its unpredictability. Chris Sale went 18-3 in 2024 as he dominated his way to a Cy Young, but the three losses he took came at the hands of the 71-91 Washington Nationals, the 62-100 Miami Marlins, and the historically awful 41-121 Chicago White Sox. In 2022, the 111-51 Dodgers went 1-5 vs. the 62-100 Pirates, and then got bounced in the NLDS in just four games by the Padres after going 14-5 vs. them in the regular season. Hell, Braves fans were calling for Will Smith’s head for most of 2021, and then he had a 0.00 ERA for an entire World Series run!
Anecdotes like these are what power my delusion and lead me to believe I can outsmart the computers. Because they could never fathom the ridiculousness that happens every single year, but my itty bitty human brain totally can.
As before, we’ll be using the Depth Charts projections from Fangraphs throughout this article. Without further ado; part two of taking the over/under on Atlanta Braves projections.
Grant Holmes, 22.5% K
We talked about Holmes’s strikeout upside a bit on part one, but let’s dig a little deeper.
In 2024, Holmes had a 24.8% K – above average, but nothing special – while splitting time between the rotation and bullpen. Based on recent comments from Alex Anthopoulos (where he’s mentioned Holmes only and not Ian Anderson, or has mentioned Holmes before Anderson), it sounds like they are counting on Holmes in the rotation, and he’s projected to start the year there.
It’s very reasonable of the projections to expect him to take a step back in the strikeouts department as he takes more turns in the rotation. However, my belief is that the baseline of 24.8% was much lower than he deserved in 2024.
In 68.1 big league innings, Holmes had an excellent 30.0% CSW (percentage of total pitches that resulted in either a called strike or swing and miss) and exceptional 16.4% SwStr (% of total pitches that resulted in a swing and miss). He put up similar numbers in Triple-A in both 2023 and 2024.
Out of 270 pitchers to throw at least 60 innings in MLB last year, Holmes ranked 9th in SwStr% and 42nd in CSW%. Check out the names and K-rates of the rest of the top 10 in SwStr%:
(Obligatory footnote from me; if the innings total was lowered to 50 instead of 60, Dylan Lee would drop into the #2 spot as the only pitcher other than Hader to eclipse 20% SwStr.)
VERDICT: Over
Bullpen FIP ranking, T-6th
Despite many cries that the Braves bullpen is too thin, the projections are still bullish. Atlanta’s relief corps is projected for a 3.93 FIP, tied for 6th in MLB and narrowly behind the 2nd ranked Mets, who are projected for a 3.91 FIP.
Digging into the cause for optimism, Depth Charts clearly adores Aaron Bummer – his 2.91 FIP projection is the 11th best out of 851 projected pitchers, just ahead of 12th place Chris Sale. If that seems crazy to you, it really isn’t – Bummer’s 2.23 FIP in 2024 ranked 7th out of 351 pitchers to reach at least 50 innings, and he isn’t likely to repeat a BABIP that is 15 points higher than any of those 351. They still see Pierce Johnson as a reliable piece (3.58 FIP) and like the chances for Dylan Lee (3.37 FIP) and Raisel Iglesias (3.21 FIP) to continue being excellent. Projections also see 6’8” lefty Angel Perdomo as a positive force, giving him a 3.84 FIP projection.
Depth Charts seems unusually high on several of the Braves depth options that might spend time in the bullpen, such as Davis Daniel (4.05 FIP), Dylan Dodd (4.26 FIP), Hayden Harris (4.17 FIP), and Bryce Elder (4.05 FIP). Harris is intriguing, but there’s nothing in the profiles of the other three pitchers mentioned there that make me think they’d pitch to a roughly league-average FIP or better if given the chance.
I’m pretty high on the Braves bullpen compared to the fanbase – I’m a Dylan Lee superfan and am hoping to be among the founding members of the Angel Perdomo hive – but I’d say they’re more of a fringe top-10 group than a fringe top-5 entering the season, and I don’t think it’s wise to bet on more than a few September appearances from Jiménez as he hopefully is able to show that he’s ready for postseason play.
VERDICT: Under. As in, they’ll be worse than a top 6 bullpen by FIP.
Marcell Ozuna, 122 wRC+
This felt like perhaps the easiest over of the bunch. The story of Ozuna’s tenure in Atlanta is well-documented – after signing a long-term deal following his MVP-caliber 2020 season, he dealt with significant off-the-field issues and was one of the worst players in baseball from 2021-2022. The first month of 2023 was no better, but he turned it all the way around and has returned to MVP-level play for the better part of the last two years. In fact, since May of 2023, Ozuna’s 155 wRC+ is 6th among all qualified hitters, behind only Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, Yordan Alvarez, and Mookie Betts.
Ozuna’s Statcast profile is also immaculate, as he continues to be one of the heaviest hitters in all of baseball. It’s fair to project some regression from the 155 wRC+ we’ve seen over his past 288 games, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see his bat speed decline as he continues to age into his mid-30s. The Braves would be happy with a 122 wRC+, but I’m expecting something above 135.
VERDICT: Over
Michael Harris II, 5.0 WAR
GoodNESS, do the projections love Michael Harris II. His 5.0 WAR projection is 14th among all position players, just ahead of superstars like Ronald Acuña Jr, Corey Seager, Kyle Tucker, Vladimir Guerrero Jr, and Elly de la Cruz.
It’s not difficult to understand the hype. Harris is an elite defender at a premium position, giving him a very high floor. He’s projected for a career high 146 games and 630 PA, and in his age 21-23 seasons, he’s posted a 117 wRC+ while averaging 4.6 WAR per 630 PA. Most systems project players to get better as they enter their mid-20s, so 5.0 WAR in a healthy season certainly doesn’t seem to be a stretch.
Unfortunately, like half of the Braves lineup, 2024 was MH2’s worst season so far, as he posted just a 99 wRC+ and 2.0 WAR in just 470 PA (compared to a 125 wRC+ and 8.6 WAR in 980 PA over his first two seasons combined). WAR is the sum of the value a player provides on offense, defense, and on the bases, so let’s break down each of these in comparison to his career numbers.
There’s definitely some flukiness in MH2’s 2024 offensive results . By xwOBA-wOBA, he was the 4th unluckiest hitter among 169 hitters to log at least 450 PA. His .344 xwOBA was almost identical to his career .346 xwOBA, but his .312 wOBA was a far cry from his career .341 wOBA. The projections have him at a 124 wRC+, basically returning to the hitter he was from 2022-2023.
On defense, Harris was better in 2024 than we’ve ever seen. In a season where he posted a career low in games played due to a hamstring strain that cost him two months, he put up the highest DRS (+11) and OAA (+8) of his career to date. He’s been consistent as a top-flight CF and should be expected to land somewhere between “great” and “gold glove winner” in 2025.
The most bizarre aspect of Harris’s 2024 season was his baserunning, which took a steep downturn. After having 40 stolen bases and only 6 caught stealings in his first two seasons combined, he had 6 CS with just 10 SB. His BsR by season has gone from 5.1 in 2022 and 5.0 in 2023 all the way down to -1.3 in 2024. It wasn’t just the hamstring, either – he was in the negatives for BsR before he got hurt. It’s possible that the changing of the guard in the base coaches made a difference (nearly every Braves regular saw a decline in their BsR from 2023 to 2024), but his sprint speed by season has gone 29.4 ft/s in 2022, 28.8 ft/s in 2023, and down to 28.3 ft/s in 2024, which isn’t altogether unconcerning for a player who brings a ton of value by way of his athleticism.
Altogether, 5.0 WAR is a bold projection but also very attainable for Money Mike. If he’s healthy for 140+ games and doesn’t experience extreme luck in either direction, that’s about where I would put the over/under. Given his injury struggles the past two seasons and the decline in sprint speed and baserunning value, I’ll reluctantly take the under while hoping that I’m wrong.
VERDICT: Under
Braves wins: 93
The grand finale and the most important projection of all. Will the Braves beat their win projection, and will that be enough to win the NL East?
As of 2/21, the Depth Charts projections have the Braves finishing 93-69. It’s the second projected record in MLB and places them in a tier of their own, a considerable 3 wins behind the juggernaut Dodgers and a whopping 6 wins ahead of the 3rd best projections for the Yankees, Mets, and Phillies. Don’t you love that your favorite team is in a division with three of the top 5 teams in baseball?
As I look through the WAR projections from Depth Charts that mark the Braves as a 93 win team, I find myself taking the over more often than not. On the position player side, I surmise that Profar, Murphy, Olson, and Ozuna are underprojected, while Harris and Acuña may be a bit overprojected. In the rotation, I’d posit that Strider, Schwellenbach, and Holmes are underprojected, while Sale is likely overprojected. The bullpen is projected for 3.6 WAR, and while I made the argument that they are more of a fringe top 10 unit than top 5, the bullpens that ranked from 9-11 in 2024 and 2023 were worth between 4.3 to 4.9 WAR, so I’ll take the over on that projection as well.
Is it predictable and biased that I, a Braves blogger, am taking the over on the Braves win projection? Absolutely, 100%. Am I ashamed? Nope. Do I think they could be worse than 93 wins? Totally. Would I give them about 75% odds to beat 93 wins in 2025? That sounds about right. Am I afraid that the baseball gods will punish my confidence? You betcha.
VERDICT: Over