So far, we’ve taken a look at the starting pitching and shortstop markets for the Braves. Today, we’ll dive into the options for upgrading LF.
The Atlanta Braves cleared up what was a pretty muddy OF/DH picture last week by trading Jorge Soler to the Angels for SP Griffin Canning. While it was surprising to see it done on the literal first day of the offseason, this move was entirely expected. Soler earnestly proved last season that he cannot handle an everyday defensive OF job (-10 DRS and -7 OAA in just 40 games), so unless they were willing to live with nothing more than a warm statue in one of their corner OF spots, Atlanta needed to trade one of their two DHs. Incumbent Marcell Ozuna has 10-and-5 rights (meaning he can veto any trade) and was the Braves best hitter all year last year, so the only real question was what the return would be for Soler.
On that front, someone like Canning was about what I’d have expected. He’s a fine #5 SP with one year of control remaining, projected by MLB Trade Rumors to earn $5.1M in his last year of arbitration. Scouts have been intrigued with Canning’s stuff in the past, and LAA isn’t exactly known for pitcher development. I’m guessing Anthopoulos sees some opportunity to shake up his pitch mix or adjust his mechanics and get more out of him. That, or it’s possible they just nontender him and use the trade as a full salary dump of Soler.
Current State of the Atlanta OF
With Soler headed west and Ozuna still entrenched as the everyday DH, here’s the OF picture as it currently stands. Michael Harris II will man center field, and we’re all hoping that his scalding finish to 2024 carries over into 2025 (and that he gets some better batted ball luck on the whole). 2023 NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. should return from his most recent ACL injury within the first month or two of the season, though reportedly not by Opening Day. Outside of that, Jarred Kelenic is under contract for four more seasons, and Eli White represents a nice back-of-the-bench option who possesses impactful speed late and can fill in defensively in the outfield as well as the infield (in a pinch).
When Kelenic arrived in Atlanta, there was hope that the Braves could unlock some of the promise he showed as a top 10 overall pick in the draft and eventual top 10 prospect in baseball. Unfortunately, that evolution did not come in 2025. He posted career-worst SwStr% and Chase% and produced just 0.5 fWAR in 131 games. New hitting coach Tim Hyers may find a way to get more out of Kelenic, but with an 86 wRC+ in 2024 that exactly matches his career wRC+ over 1,423 plate appearances, the Braves should not plan to rely on him for a full-time role. I’d expect him to be used as a platoon hitter while Ronald is out at the start of the season, and then as a bench bat vs. RHP moving forward.
Lastly, they do have Ramón Laureano under team control, but I expect him to be non-tendered in a couple of weeks. It would be truly shocking if AA declined the $8M team option on Travis d’Arnaud to create financial flexibility and then turned around and handed Laureano the $6.1M he is estimated to receive in arbitration. Yes, he had a 129 wRC+ in 226 PA with Atlanta, and that was a godsend. But the formula he used to produce those results likely won’t work again over a larger sample. Laureano’s plate discipline was appalling – 3.5% BB and 28.3% K – and while the quality of contact on balls in play was very good, his 17.5% HR/FB and especially his .380 BABIP in Atlanta are highly unlikely to repeat. We don’t even need to mention the rough OF defense he displayed to conclude that the Braves are unlikely to commit $6.1M to him.
Market Overview
This year’s free agent class has a number of quality outfielders, even after you look past Juan Soto and the eventual Brinks truck(s) that will be delivered to his bank account. There are interesting options from both the left and right side of the plate, which is good news for an Atlanta lineup that could certainly use another capable left-handed bat. There are buy-low guys who might be interested in a one year prove-it deal, and there are more established hitters coming off great years. The trade market likely has less to offer, but there are a couple of names worth keeping an eye on.
There are plenty of teams who will be looking for OF upgrades this winter, so while there are plenty of options, the top names on the market will likely come with stiff competition. Given the deficiencies of the offense in 2024 and the personnel on hand at present, I’d expect AA to be most aggressive on quality left-handed hitters who can mash righties and get on base at a reasonable clip.
Tier One – Juan Soto
(If you are on a mobile device then this table is best viewed in landscape mode.)
The idea of Soto to Atlanta probably doesn’t warrant any more words than a simple “lol,” but I’m gonna write some anyway.
In his time with Atlanta, Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos has never guaranteed any player more than $23M in a single year. Soto will almost certainly garner a contract with an average annual value of at least $40M. While he’s given out significant extensions to players already in the org, the largest free agent contract he’s signed was the 5 year, $80M deal he gave to Marcell Ozuna (who became a free agent after his first year in Atlanta). Soto is expected to command a total guarantee north of $500M, conservatively.
So yeah, the odds are slim. You might even say they are zero. And they probably are! But, if there was ever a free agent player to cause AA to stray from his typical path, it would be Soto, which is why I am leaving the door cracked. Well, not even really cracked. Let’s say the door is closed and locked, but if you think to look very carefully, there’s a bobby pin on the ground nearby that is the same color as the carpet.
Soto has walked more than he’s struck out in each of the past 5 seasons. His lowest walk rate in a single season during that time frame was 2024 – when he had Aaron Judge hitting directly behind him – and he still posted an 18.1% BB that ranked 2nd only to Judge in MLB. His worst wRC+ in any season is 143 – 2 points higher than Ronald Acuña Jr.’s career wRC+ – which he produced in his age 20 season. He also hit a career high 41 HRs in 2024, marking back to back seasons with 35+ HRs. He hits the ball extraordinarily hard with consistency and controls the strike zone better than anyone in the game. It’s the safest profile I’ve ever seen, and whoever pays him the motherload that he deserves entering his age-26 season will almost certainly be glad they did.
Left field is a hole for Atlanta, left-handed hitting is a need for Atlanta, and there isn’t an obvious candidate on the current roster to fill the 2nd spot in the batting order. The 2024 Braves really struggled to get on base, and Juan Soto has never posted an OBP below .400. There hasn’t been a free agent hitter that would more perfectly complement and enhance the position player core since AA became GM. If he wants to spend every dollar he has on Soto and roll with the existing options at SS, SP, and the bullpen, I could make the argument that it would be the best use of the money. And no, it’s not gonna happen. But it’s at least a little fun to dream.
Tier Two – Above Average Everyday Players
(If you are on a mobile device then this table is best viewed in landscape mode.)
Jurickson Profar had a monster 2024 season, producing a 139 wRC+ and 4.3 fWAR. It was the post-post-hype breakout that most around the league had come to believe would never happen. Everything in his 2024 season looks legit – a high walk rate at 11.4%, a low strikeout rate at 15.1%, an excellent .364 xwOBA that perfectly matched his actual production. He’s a switch-hitter with relatively even splits, and his .380 OBP and 24 HRs from 2024 would be an idyllic fit at the top of the order behind Ronald Acuña Jr. That said, it’s tough to gauge what Profar’s market will be. He’s a below-average defensive OF, so the team that invests him will really need to buy in on the bat being for real. If the breakout sticks, though, the skepticism that teams across the league will feel could provide the opportunity to land an exceptional bat at a below-market rate.
Anthony Santander has established himself as one of the better HR hitters in the league, averaging 35 HRs per season over the past three years. He does it by consistently pulling the ball in the air, but the lack of top-end exit velocities makes him an unusual target for Anthopoulos (especially as a buy-high candidate following a career-high 44 HR and 3.3 fWAR in 2024). He is also more of the low-OBP, high-SLG variety that the Braves already have in spades. Like Profar, he’s a switch-hitter with relatively even splits. Defensively, he’s below average, but not as bad as you might expect from a guy who has spent plenty of time at DH.
Brandon Lowe is primarily a 2B and hasn’t appeared in the OF since 2022. In the limited (and perhaps outdated) outfield experience he’s had, he’s graded out as a bit below average on defense. That said, there are some things working for him that could entice the Braves to take a chance on him playing out of position. First, he’s a really, really good player – he has a 126 wRC+ over parts of 7 seasons in the big leagues and has averaged 31 HR and 3.7 fWAR per 150 games played. Second, he bats left-handed, mashing righties but still playing above-average against lefties (and much better than that in 2024). And finally, he’s under contract for just $10.5M in 2025 and has a very affordable $11.5M club option for 2026. The Rays are usually searching for ways to free up their payroll, and trading Lowe might be their best path this winter.
Quick hits on the rest of the tier two options: as high-strikeout, low-walk, high-slug RHH OFs who will be looking for large multi-year deals following big 2024 seasons, Teoscar Hernández and Tyler O’Neill do not feel like the right fit for the Braves roster. The Mariners 2025 payroll is higher than their 2024 payroll before the offseason has even begun, so it’s not impossible to think they could look to move Randy Arozarena and his projected $11M arbitration salary. He’s been a consistently above-average hitter with solid on-base skills and speed, so if he does become available, he could be a good target for Atlanta. Ward displays good plate discipline and batted ball skills, a profile that many have speculated would appeal to Anthopoulos. AA has had a lot of success completing trades with LAA in recent seasons, and it certainly shouldn’t shock anyone if he swings another deal to acquire Ward.
Tier Three – Questionable Everyday Players or Solid Strong-Side Platoon Players
(If you are on a mobile device then this table is best viewed in landscape mode.)
Michael Conforto makes a good bit of sense for the Braves. He has a reputation as a strict platoon hitter, as reflected by his playing time in SF and the contract predictions from FanGraphs (1/$10M) and MLB Trade Rumors (2/$18M). However, he had reverse splits in 2024 and has been close to average in his career vs. LHP, so it’s possible AA could take a chance on him as the everyday guy in LF. AA will also likely be attracted to the fact that he’s underperformed his well above-average xwOBA in each of the last three seasons he’s played in, including two years spent in the hitter’s hell that is Oracle Park. Defensively, he’s graded out as slightly below average over the past couple of years. The biggest roadblock to getting this one done? He’s a Scott Boras client.
If the Braves decide to spend big at SS or SP or in the bullpen, Max Kepler is a name to keep a particularly close eye on for the OF. He’s coming off a rough 2024 season that saw his chase rate, whiff rate, BB%, and xwOBA all trend in the wrong direction. In the five seasons prior, however, he averaged a 110 wRC+, 10.4% BB, 18.2% K, 27 HR and 3.1 fWAR per 150 games. His lowest single season xwOBA in that stretch was .338 (for context, league average in 2024 was .315), and just a year ago he posted a .362 xwOBA and 123 wRC+ with 24 HR and 2.8 fWAR in just 491 plate appearances. Oh, and he’s an excellent defender, averaging +5 DRS and +7 OAA in RF over the past 4 years. He’s really struggled vs. LHP in his career and should be treated as a strict platoon bat, but he’ll likely come very cheap, and you don’t have to wrinkle up your forehead to imagine a bounceback season from him.
Winker is only slightly better defensively than Jorge Soler and will likely have his market limited to DH duties as such. Verdugo has solid plate discipline, but he was a significantly below-average hitter in 2024 and has struggled with off-field issues and clubhouse concerns. Springer is clearly in decline, and in 2024 he posted the first below-average offensive season of his career. But he has good plate discipline, has had an above-average xwOBA in every season, and he still grades out as an average defender. It’s possible the Blue Jays would cover a chunk of the $48.4M he’s owed between 2025 and 2026 if they decide to sell or cut payroll. The Rangers have stated they intend to cut payroll this winter, and Adolis Garcia is owed $9.3M in 2025 before reaching his final year of arbitration in 2026. Garcia had an abysmal 2024 after three straight very good seasons, and it seems likely that the Rangers will hold him for now instead of selling at his lowest possible value. Even at his best, he’s the RHH, low-OBP, high-SLG type of player that would feel redundant in the current lineup.
Tier Four – Short-Side Platoons and Bench Bats
(If you are on a mobile device then this table is best viewed in landscape mode.)
There are almost certainly more names that I’m missing, but any of the guys in this tier should be seen as complementary part-time players at best.
Adam Duvall had the worst season of his big league, and many think it’s time for him to hang ‘em up. But he is just one year removed from a 116 wRC+ season in Boston with 21 HR in 92 games, and he actually had a 135 wRC+ with solid strikeout and walk rates against LHP in 2024. He’s obviously beloved in the Braves clubhouse, and it shouldn’t shock anyone to see him come back on either a non-guaranteed split contract or a major league contract around league minimum.
The most intriguing name in this category is probably Randal Grichuk, who quietly posted a 139 wRC+ over 279 PA for Arizona this season. He crushed lefties (as he always has) but also produced in a small sample vs. righties, which could make him an intriguing option to platoon with a cheaper option like Kelenic or Kepler should they prove to be incapable of handling the bulk of the timeshare vs. RHP.
We’ll quickly mention a few other names in this tier. Hays is a full-on lefty-masher and would certainly valuable in a strict platoon. If they still believe in Kelenic and want to give him another chance at the start of the season, they might consider adding a veteran LHH bench bat on an inexpensive contract who would be capable of stepping in if Kelenic flounders. Old friend Jason Heyward would be a fun player to fill that role. Merrifield could be interested in returning as a bench player in 2025, and his versatility and speed would be a nice weapon to have on the roster. Bader seems likely to get a full-time role somewhere because of his excellent CF defense, but Michael A. Taylor could be a solid short-side platoon option who can cover CF if Harris needs a day off. Postseason legend and vibes god Enrique Hernández would be a fun fit in the Braves clubhouse, and his ability to fill in all over the field would be useful, but he will almost surely stay in LA, where he is absolutely beloved. Canha is still a productive hitter, but also spends most of his time at DH.
Conclusion
All the needs for the Braves (SS, LF, SP, and RP) are intertwined this offseason. The roster is already very good and fairly expensive, so I wouldn’t expect big splashes at every position of need, but it’s important that they improve the roster, and those are the open spots they have to work with.
If they stick with Orlando Arcia at SS, you’d want to see them add some pitching and snag a solid everyday OF like Profar or build a powerful platoon like Conforto + Grichuk. If they spend big on Willy Adames or Ha-Seong Kim, maybe they will add a more low-budget platoon like Kepler + Duvall. If they stick with Arcia AND commit to giving Kelenic another shot (a scenario that I definitely do not see happening), you’d want to see big additions to the pitching staff – perhaps the returns of Fried and Minter plus a dominant right-handed reliever to replace Jiménez (Devin Williams, anybody?).
In my mind, the most likely OF targets for Anthopoulos are Profar, Conforto, Kepler, and Ward. But, no matter what he chooses to do, one fact surely remains. Until Juan Soto has signed the dotted line with some blasphemous organization that Braves fans despise, I will fantasize day and night of this make-believe lineup:
Ronald Acuña Jr. RF
Juan Soto, LF
Austin Riley, 3B
Matt Olson, 1B
Marcell Ozuna, DH
Ozzie Albies, 2B
Michael Harris II, CF
Sean Murphy, C
Orlando Arcia, SS