Examining the different paths the Braves could take to upgrade at SS this winter.
The Atlanta Braves offseason began earlier than they wanted, and now it’s Alex Anthopoulos’s job to go out and improve the team for 2025.
There are four positions they can feasibly address this winter: shortstop, starting pitcher, left field, and relief pitcher. Every other position on the field is locked up for a considerable time by a player who will be projected to play at an above average level.
Today, we’ll take a look at the different routes that Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos could take in order to improve SS.
Overview of the SS Market
The bad news for Atlanta is that the shortstop market is pretty thin. You’ve got two above average free agents in Willy Adames and Ha-Seong Kim, and then a few speculative trade candidates, most of which seem unlikely to be moved at all.
The good news for Atlanta is that there might not be any other high-spending teams that are looking to spend on a SS. The Dodgers have already been tied to Adames, but I wonder how much of that is real and how much of that is speculation because they always have money to spend and don’t currently have a big name at SS. Miguel Rojas had an excellent season for them, with a 111 wRC+ and 2.8 fWAR for them in just 337 PA and his usual excellent defense. They also traded for Tommy Edman at the deadline, and they have batted him cleanup and 5th in games 4 and 5 of the NLCS, respectively. You could argue that they already have two good options at SS for 2025. Because they are the Dodgers, they may still look to upgrade. But personally, I expect they will hold tight at SS for 2025.
Outside of LA, the Mets, Phillies, Yankees, Astros, Cubs, Blue Jays, Rangers, and Red Sox all have solid everyday shortstops. The only other team with a top ten payroll in 2024 that might be interested in a SS is San Francisco, who got a very fun rookie season from Tyler Fitzgerald but might be willing to move him to a different position if they are able to land a solid shortstop.
Now we’re ready to take a deeper look at all our options.
Option 1 – Splurge for Adames or Kim in Free Agency
There are only two free agent shortstops who would represent a clear upgrade over Orlando Arcia – Willy Adames and Ha-Seong Kim.
Adames is the younger, better player and should be set for a bigtime payday. He had a fantastic walk year in 2024, setting career highs in HR (32), games played (161), and fWAR (4.7). But what stands out the most in his profile is his consistency. Check out his fWAR per 150 games in each full season of his career (“full” meaning he started the year on the team):
(If you are on a mobile device then this table is best viewed in landscape mode.)
It’s been a great career for him so far, but there are three reasons why I feel confident that the Braves will pass.
- At 29, Adames should be asking for Dansby Swanson money (7 years, $177M was the deal Chicago gave to him – Adames should be able to get that much from someone), and Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos has never shown a willingness to do that type of deal in free agency.
- Adames had been an elite defender in his first two full seasons with Milwaukee, but he was decidedly not elite in 2024. In 2022 and 2023 he combined for +26 OAA and +17 DRS, but in 2024, he was average by OAA’s reckoning (0 OAA) and terrible by DRS (-16 DRS). If they were to invest Dansby money in a SS, they would want to be sure he could play the position at an above average level
- Adames has never displayed significant raw power, which is what AA seems to covet in his hitters more than anything. Yes, he’s averaged 28 HR over the past four seasons, but during that stretch his average exit velocity has always been average or worse. He’s very good at consistently barreling the ball up in the air, but given the type of hitters AA has targeted in the past (Olson, Murphy, Ozuna, Soler, etc.), I wouldn’t expect this profile to entice him to give out a franchise record free agent contract.
Ha-Seong Kim has been in MLB for four seasons now, and he’s been very good for each of the last three. He posted 3.6 fWAR in 150 games in 2022, 4.2 fWAR in 152 games in 2023, and 2.6 fWAR in 121 games in an injury-shortened 2024.
The recently-turned 29 year old has been a solid defender at SS, 2B, and 3B throughout his career
There’s a lot to love about the fit. He brings several things that the Braves offense is missing – high BB%, low K%, solid OBP, very low chase rates, very low whiff rates, and speed – while also playing outstanding defense at a premium position.
Unfortunately, Kim in Atlanta still seems a far-fetched idea. The offensive profile is even from the prototypical AA target than Adames. Kim is also represented by Scott Boras, whom the Braves have famously avoided over the years. And lastly, Kim is from South Korea. Many Asian-born players in MLB prefer to play on the west coast, and Atlanta in particular has not shown much reported interest in any Asian-born players since Kenshin Kawakami signed with them in 2009.
Adames likelihood: 10%
Kim likelihood: 5%
Option 2 – Bo the Flow
(Disclaimer: I don’t know if anyone calls him that.)
Bo Bichette had his first ever bad season in 2024. And I’m here to tell ya, it was a STINKER.
After posting a wRC+ of at least 120 in each of his first five seasons in the big leagues – a stretch in which he averaged a robust 4.5 fWAR per 150 games – Bichette slouched to a 71 wRC+ and 0.3 fWAR in just 81 games in 2024. The only bright spot was his defense, which has historically been below average. This year, he had +1 OAA, just the second season in which he has had a positive OAA.
Bichette’s batted ball profile in 2024 was well below his standard, but not “71 wRC+” bad. There are a lot of similarities between Bichette and Sean Murphy’s offensive seasons – both missed a significant amount of time with injuries, underperformed their expected stats, and had their only bad offensive season since their debut in 2019.
Like Murphy, I feel confident that Bichette will bounce back to a solidly above average offensive player, which makes him a good target for the Braves. Now the question is, will the Blue Jays be willing to trade him?
Toronto’s 2024 season mirrored Bichette’s. They had a top 10 payroll but finished last in the highly competitive AL East at 74-88. Key veterans such as Kevin Gausman and George Springer have begun to show their age. The two cornerstones of their core, Bichette and Vlad Guerrero Jr., are both set to hit free agency after 2025. They also saw several young, interesting infielders debut for them in 2025 (including Billy Wagner’s son). Moreover, they are only set to lose one player to free agency – long reliever Ryan Yarbrough – and they have several players slated for big pay raises in 2025, which means they likely won’t have much payroll space available to supplement the current roster.
For all of these reasons, I think it is a very legitimate possibility that the Jays trade Bichette this winter. They could try to capitalize on Vlad Jr.’s trade value after an excellent 2024, but he’s the clear face of their franchise and seems more likely to stick around and perhaps be extended than Bichette. Cutting payroll might be a goal for their ownership group, but even if it isn’t, trading players with one year of team control remaining for some young talent instead of running mostly the same group back out there in 2025 could be the right direction for them to take.
At a $17.6M salary for 2025, Bichette on his own shouldn’t require a huge prospect haul. If AA wants to solve several problems at once, he could look into acquiring Bichette and SP Chris Bassitt for Jorge Soler and a prospect or two in a deal that moves a lot of money around.
Likelihood: 15%
Option 3 – Thinking outside the box: trade for a strong defensive 2B who can definitely play SS
The only possibility in this category that actually makes some sense is Cubs 2B Nico Hoerner. But, because Anthopoulos often finds a way to surprise us, I’ll add in two more options that would completely shock me – Matt McLain of the Reds and Andres Giménez of the Cleveland Guardians.
Assuming Cody Bellinger opts into his $27.5M player option this winter, the Cubs will have a bit of a logjam in their infield. They have Isaac Paredes at 3B, Braves World Series Champion Dansby Swanson at SS, Nico Hoerner at 2B, Michael Busch at 1B, and Cody Bellinger as an option to waffle between 1B and the OF. However, their OF is pretty full, too, with Ian Happ in LF, Seiya Suzuki in RF, and the young defensive standout Pete Crow-Armstrong in CF. Mike Tauchman also represents a quietly solid 4th OF option.
They might simply opt to keep Nico and use Bellinger’s flexibility at 1B and the OF to give the regulars in their lineup an occasional DH day, with Suzuki likely filling the primary DH role as the weakest OF defender of the bunch. Another option could be to trade Hoerner, shift Michael Busch to 2B (a position he has experience playing both at the minor league and major league level), and install Bellinger as their permanent 1B.
Defensively, Hoerner is very overqualified to be handling 2B. The last two seasons, he’s put up a combined +23 OAA at 2B while also making an occasional appearance at SS when Dansby needed a day off. In 2022, he started 128 games at SS and posted an impressive +13 OAA, +10 FRV, +10 DRS season there.
Hoerner is lacking in the power department, but he’s combined an aggressive approach with elite contact skills and excellent speed to produce four straight above average offensive seasons. He’s been consistent, too, posting a wRC+ between 103 and 108 in each of those seasons and averaging 4.5 fWAR per 150 games. On top of that, he uses his legs very well, averaging over 30 SB in each of the past three seasons.
Again, this is not the typical Anthopoulos profile. But if Chicago makes him available, I see this as a very likely target for AA for two reasons: 1) the defense isn’t just good, it’s special; and 2) the remaining contract (2 years left, $11.5M in 2025 and $12M in 2026) is much more palatable than what Adames or Kim will receive in free agency.
The Reds are in a similar situation to the Cubs with their infield. They have Jeimer Candelario and Spencer Steer, who both can handle 3B and 1B. They have Jonathan India, who just had an excellent year at 2B, showing marked defensive improvements and returning to above-average offensive production. As a poor defensive catcher who can hit, Tyler Stephenson has seen some time at 1B, too. And of course they have Elly de la Cruz, the face of their franchise, a dynamic gold glove finalist at SS.
Then there’s Matt McLain, who unfortunately missed all of 2024 due to a shoulder injury he sustained in spring training. McLain absolutely skyrocketed as a prospect in 2023. After dominating the minor leagues, the Reds brought him to Cincinnati, where he hit .290/.357/.507 with 16 HR and 14 SB in 89 games. He produced 3.1 fWAR while splitting time between 2B and SS in an inspired rookie campaign.
In a relatively small sample, McLain rated as a solidly above average defensive SS. He’s entering his age 25 season and has 5 more years of team control remaining, including 2025 at league minimum. Because of this, the Reds are highly, highly unlikely to trade him. But it’s not impossible that they could see the weak free agent market at SS and find some motivation to move McLain. In the unlikely event that they did make him available, this could be the type of player that inspires Anthopoulos to part ways with Drake Baldwin and other top prospects.
Giménez, who was originally acquired by the Guardians in the Francisco Lindor trade, is a similar player to Hoerner. He brings an aggressive approach to the plate, doesn’t strike out much, and possesses great defense and speed without much pop. He is even more overqualified to be playing 2B than Hoerner – he won the AL Platinum Glove in 2023 with +18 OAA and bested that this year with +19 OAA – but his bat isn’t as reliable, having posted below-average seasons by wRC+ in each of the past two years.
Giménez’s contract situation makes it a small possibility that a small market team like Cleveland may shop him around. After being fairly inexpensive in the early portion of his extension, his salary will now jump to $10.6M in 2025, $15.6M in 2026, and $23.6M per season from 2027-2029 with a club option for $23M in 2030. While that makes him more likely to come up in trade conversations in the coming seasons, I don’t see Anthopoulos taking on a deal that large for a player of his offensive capabilities.
Hoerner likelihood: 10%
Giménez or McLain likelihood: <1%
Option 4 – Stick with Orlando Arcia
The Braves traded for Orlando Arcia in 2021 because they believed a swing change could turn him into a more competent hitter at the plate. On the whole, it seemed to work – his career wRC+ with Milwaukee was 70, and his career wRC+ with Atlanta so far is 87.
An 87 wRC+ would be solid for a backup player who can cover multiple positions, which is what Orlando Arcia was always meant to be. After he put up a 105 wRC+ in 234 PA with his new swing while covering for the injured Ozzie Albies in 2022, however, the Braves opted to let him take over the starting SS position following the departure of Dansby Swanson. They gave Arcia a dirt cheap extension, too – 3 years, $7.3M with a club option for a 4th year at $2M. That also seemed to work, as he posted a 100 wRC+ and 2.4 fWAR in 139 games as the Braves full-time starting shortstop in 2023.
While the 2023 result was awesome, there were definitely some red flags in his profile. First, his .307 xwOBA suggested that the .321 wOBA was a fortunate outcome. Second, his production considerably tailed off in the final months of the season – he posted a 143 wRC+ in his first 200 PA (which was largely driven by an unsustainable .406 BABIP) and just a 74 wRC+ in his final 333 PA.
Still, nobody could blame the Braves for rolling him back out there for 2024 at a $2M salary coming off a 2.4 fWAR season. Besides, the rest of the offense was LOADED, so they didn’t need much from him anyways, right?
Unfortunately, very wrong. The Braves struggled mightily on offense all year, and his 72 wRC+ over 157 games was no help at all. The first 200 PA of 2023 look like a clear outlier, and the Braves should absolutely expect Arcia to be a substantially below-average hitter going forward.
That doesn’t mean they won’t roll him out there on Opening Day, though. In theory, the Braves still have stars littered across the rest of the diamond, so it wouldn’t surprise me if they take Orlando’s defense – which is good, not great – and deal with him as a ~1 fWAR SS and rally killer in the 9 spot.
Likelihood: 50%
_____
An observant reader such as yourself might have noticed that adding the likelihood % of each option together does not bring you to 100%. I remember conducting an exercise similar to this at the trade deadline back in July, looking at all of the potential OF they could acquire. One name I never considered? Jorge Soler. It’s entirely possible that Anthopoulos will stay on brand and choose an unnamed Option 5 that a simple mind like mine is not capable of imagining. As always, I look forward to seeing what surprises AA has in store this winter.