Albies is on arguably the most team-friendly contract in MLB. Should the Braves consider extending him even further?
It goes without saying that Ozzie Albies has become a clear fan favorite for the Atlanta Braves. He has had ups and downs, but has been a solid dugout presence for his entire career.
It is obvious that it is the mode of operation for the Braves to extend players they view as their core. Ozzie is obviously part of that core, but has somehow become one of the older players on the team.
There are many variables in play when we look at Albies’ performance, but is it time to consider looking at his contract again?
It is not a stretch to assume that many would be happy for Albies to continue to be in a Braves uniform far beyond the 2027 season when his last club option can be exercised.
First, let’s look at some negatives for Albies. When looking at contracts, we have to be realistic when seeing if it makes sense to spend the money. Albies has missed significant time. Since the start of 2021 he has missed 181 games. He also has seen his offense be below average in terms of wRC+ in two of the past four seasons. In 2022 he was 6.0 percent below average, and in 2024 he was 5.0 percent below average.
His biggest weakness is that he struggles against righties. in his eight year career, he has only had a wRC+ above league average in three of those seasons against them, and one of those seasons was the small sample size of ninety-five at-bats in 2020. He struggles bad at being able to get on base against righties with a career OBP of .309.
We have also seen a drop off defensively in terms of Outs Above Average. From 2017-2022 Albies was in the top 20.0 percent or better of MLB players in four of those seasons. Since the start of 2023 he has dropped off majorly, being in the bottom 2.0 percent, and bottom 34.0 percent respectively. If we look at his Ultimate Zone Rating he has a -1.8 since the start of 2022. It would take an entire article to break down defensive metrics, but the takeaway is that he is showing signs of a decline.
To be fair, we can look at some hypotheticals here. We know that he fell off some defensively over the past few years. However, he was injured. How much did those injuries play into his defense, whether physically or psychologically? We don’t know for certain, but there is at least some grounds to assume that the injuries played a role. We may see a better defensive output after a full offseason to recover.
Enough with the negative, let’s look at what Ozzie Albies offers.
Ozzie crushes lefties. If he had the slash line against lefties as his overall slash line he would be an MVP candidate every single year. For his career, he has a slash line of .336/.362/.564. Other than 2020 and 2022, every single season he has had a wRC+ against lefties at least 36.0 percent better than league average.
Ozzie has also been one of the better baserunners in the league. He does not steal many bases, but if you look at Ultimate Base Running (UBR), which factors in all base running outside of steals, every year of his career he has fair better than league average except for last season in which he did not play the full season.
His full body of work has made him a solid player for his entire career. Since the start of his career, he is fourth among all active second baseman in fWAR. Of course, he has been in the league since 2017 so he has had quite a bit of time to accumulate fWAR. So, if we look at the last four seasons we see that even after missing 181 games, he still ranks eleventh among active second basemen in fWAR. This is more than players like Gleybor Torres, and Luis Arraez who have both played at least ninety-five more games than he has in that span. If we look at a healthy Albies, and look at fWAR per game played he would jump up to ninth ahead of Jeff McNeil and Jake Cronenworth.
With all the positives Albies brings, you could argue that he has one of, if not THE most team-friendly contract in baseball right now if you do not include pre-arbitration players like Paul Skenes.
The Braves are currently on the hook for $7MM this season and have club options for $7MM in both 2026 and 2027. The Braves do not need to be in a hurry to extend him. However, now may be a good time to start negotiations. With the next two seasons being club options, the Braves could do an extension right now and guarantee those two years plus add some more years.
What if the Braves offered him something like five years and $75MM? The AAV would be $15MM in this scenario. Albies could likely get that in the open market pretty easily. This would ensure he stays a Brave for two more years, while also guaranteeing him $68 million more if you do not include the club options or an extra $54MM if you do.
It could be a win-win for both parties. We know that baseball is a business, and that seeing players like Chipper Jones spending their entire careers with a team is exceptionally rare. That being said, it could be a sign of good faith to the fans with so many fan favorites leaving over the past few years if the Braves could get more years of a clear leader of the team in Ozzie Albies.
Put in the comments what contract structure you would like to see, if you would like to see an extension.