Spencer Schwellenbach, Braves look for series sweep in Boston Wednesday

Spencer Schwellenbach is set to make his second start of the season against the strikeout prone Red Sox

The Atlanta Braves are set to finish their last game of a two-game series against the Boston Red Sox. The Braves will feature Spencer Schwellenbach for his second start of the season and will face off against Nick Pivetta.

In his last start, in which he faced the Nationals, Schwellenbach pitched 5.0 innings with five strikeouts, one walk, five hits, and three earned runs. All three runs came off a HR by Lane Thomas in the fifth inning. Schwellenbach averaged less than five innings per appearance in his minor league career, so it was not a huge surprise that he was shaky in fifth. One thing to watch in this afternoon’s game is how long Schwellenbach lasts.

5.0 innings is an extremely small sample size to draw any conclusions on. However, it may be interesting to know that his expected ERA (xERA) of 4.32 for the game was lower than his actual ERA of 5.40 and his xwOBA of .331 was lower than his wOBA of .373.

He was able to get hitters to chase 31.7 percent of the time. For reference, Max Fried has a 28.5 percent chase rate on the year and Reynaldo Lopez has a 31.4. Lopez is in the best 24.0 percent of MLB in terms of chase rate. Chasing pitches does not directly translate to strikeouts. However, it should be pointed out that the Nationals are right in the middle of the pack at having the sixteenth-place strikeout rate, while the Red Sox have the third highest strikeout rate in MLB. If Schwellenbach can use his ability to get hitters to chase to his advantage, this could be a good matchup for him.

Again, this is an extremely small sample size to draw from, but it is fun to look at how Schwellenbach potentially matches up again the Red Sox. With him making his debut in his last game, he has not faced any of the Red Sox players before, so it will be fun to see if he can get some momentum going.

Nick Pivetta has faced the Braves regulars quite a few times, but no one has seen him more than Ozzie Albies with thirty-three at bats. Unfortunately, Albies has struggled to a .212 average and .479 OPS against him. Michael Harris has far fewer at-bats with seven, but has yet to get a hit off of Pivetta.

Two players to watch for the Braves are Orlando Arcia and Marcell Ozuna. Arcia has seven at-bats against and saying he has been successful is an understatement. He has a .857 average, and a 2.732 OPS against Pivetta with two HRs. Ozuna has not been as successful, but he has face Pivetta for more at-bats with sustained success. Over twenty-six at-bats against Pivetta, Ozuna has hit six HRs with a .308 average and 1.296 OPS.

It will be interesting to see if the Braves go with d’Arnaud over Murphy against Pivetta. Murphy has a .300 average in ten at-bats against him, but only a .664 OPS. d’Arnaud has a .500 average with a 1.667 OPS and one HR in six at-bats. Now, Murphy had a nasty contusion on his elbow from a HBP, so it would be no shocker if he gets the day off. That being said, the x-rays were negative, and he said he will be fine.

Olson (.885 OPS), Riley (.856), and Duvall (.889) have all had success against Pivetta. Of the projected starters, Albies, Kelenic, and Harris are arguably the only ones who have struggled against Pivetta in their career, so it could be a fun afternoon for the bats.

First pitch is at 1:35 ET

Game Info

Game Date/Time: Wednesday, June 5, 1:35 p.m. ET

Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA.

TV: Bally Sports South

Streaming: MLB.tv

Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan