The Braves starter looks to follow-up on a stellar rookie season.
Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Spencer Schwellenbach had an outstanding rookie year in 2024, making 21 starts and giving the team 123.2 innings worth 2.6 fWAR.
Although he didn’t pick-up any votes for the National League Rookie of the Year, his successful debut season has him penciled in as one of the members of the 2025 Braves starting rotation where the right-hander will look to fill one of the voids left by the off-season loss of long-time starting pitchers Max Fried and Charlie Morton.
MLB.com thinks Schwellenbach’s ceiling could be higher than that of a mid-rotation starter. In an article looking at 10 players – five pitchers and five position players – they see Schwellenbach as one of the breakout stars of 2025, ranking him ninth overall and fourth among pitchers.
Schwellenbach was outstanding in his first season in Atlanta. The former University of Nebraska performer ended the 2024 season with a 3.34 xFIP, 3.35 ERA and a 3.36 xERA while striking out more than nine batters per nine innings. He only 24 batters on the season owing to his fantastic 1.04 WHIP for the campaign.
Steamer projects a comparable season in 2025 with Schwellenbach making more starts with a slight dip in effectiveness, but still worth 2.7 fWAR.
MLB.com opines that Schwellenbach could have more upside than that hypothesizing that he could follow in the footsteps of Seattle Mariners’ starter Bryce Miller whose 2024 sophomore season in 2024 was a step forward from his rookie year.
Schwellenbach’s Baseball Savant page shows copious shades of red – a good thing if you aren’t familiar – where he was above average to elite in numerous categories. His barrel percentage, chase rate and walk rate were the best of those categories, as noted in the MLB.com article. Furthermore, of the six pitches he used last season, five of them provided positive run value. Those pitches were also the five he through the most in 2024.
While there has been consternation among the fan base on Atlanta’s lack of starting pitcher acquisition after the departure of Fried and Morton, Schwellenbach is one of the reason for optimism on the success of the team’s 2025 rotation.