The young right-hander has a chance to show that his misstep in Canada was just a misstep in Canada
There was a stretch, a long stretch, where Spencer Schwellenbach was so good basically every time he took the mound that we didn’t need to have game previews talking about the potential for him to bounce back. But, that’s where we are right now.
From mid-June 2023 through his first three starts of this year, Schwellenbach had an xFIP- above 100 just five times in 21 starts. In those five starts, he had an FIP- above 100 just twice — once against the Blue Jays, and once against the Mets, both last September. In that start against the Mets, he had a 4/1 K/BB ratio and was charged with just a solo homer in seven frames, so chances are, no one was looking for a bounceback after that anyway. So, that brings us to his September 7, 2024 start against the Blue Jays (two homers, 3/0 K/BB ratio in five innings), and his most recent outing against the same club (two homers, 3/2 K/BB ratio in 4 2⁄3 innings) as ones placing him in “need a bounceback” territory. The good news, then? He’s not facing the Blue Jays on Monday night. Cardinals are different, right?
All in all, Schwellenbach’s numbers on the season are still quite good — 63 ERA-, 92 FIP-, 77 xFIP-, with an xERA in the range of his FIP and xFIP. As the rara avis pitcher who throws a kitchen sink arsenal but does so with good-to-great stuff, one of the even more exciting things about Schwellenbach in 2025 is that he seems to have improved his offerings. His fastball is half a tick higher and has more “rise,” his cutter is up almost a full tick and giving him another non-sinking option, and he is really dotting his split in a way beyond the already-good command he showed with it last year (though worth nothing, his four-seamer command looks a bit rough).
The Cardinals will be an interesting test for him. After all, he faced them twice last year, had a combined 14/0 K/BB ratio against them, yet had the Braves drop both games — BABIP in the first one and three homers allowed in the other. They’re a put-the-ball-in-play team, and he got a lot of strikeouts exploiting that tendency last time, but to less avail than he was probably hoping for, so we’ll see what happens this time around.
Schwellenbach’s mound opponent for this one will be Erick Fedde, whom the Cardinals acquired midseason at the Trade Deadline from the White Sox last year, and who was pretty solid during that stretch run but has been pretty blah to start 2025. Specifically, Fedde has a pretty gross 126 FIP- and 139 xFIP-, with an xERA in line with his FIP, because he has more walks than strikeouts. But, the reason his starts have been manageable for the Cardinals (87 ERA-) is because they have played really good defense in general, and because Fedde has managed to have a hilariously teeny-tiny BABIP in two of his four starts so far, including a game where he threw six no-hit innings despite a 2/4 K/BB ratio. As I noted in the series preview, this game probably goes one of two ways with regard to the Braves’ bats and Fedde: either he continues to benefit from Devil Magic and the Braves get walks but can’t do anything with them, or the universe vindicates Thomas (not Buckminster!!!!!!) Fuller and the Braves can smash Fedde like they did over and over again when he was with the Nationals.
Game Info
Game Date/Time: Monday, April 21, 2025, 7:15 PM EDT
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
TV: FanDuel Sports South / Southeast
Streaming: MLB.tv
Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan, La Mejor 1600/1400/1130 AM