Past results may not be indicative of future performance, but don’t doubt the Battery Power Almanac.
There’s that meme. You know the one.
“What a week, huh?”
“Lemon, it’s Wednesday.”
The 2025 Atlanta Braves regular season isn’t even a month old and it’s already been a long season. The lack of free agent signings to bolster the pitching staff. Spring Training injuries. The team’s one-and-only marquee free agent addition popped for PED’s in the first week. An 0-fer in the team’s seven game road trip to open the season.
Chat, what is this even?
In a time where everything in the world is unsettled and the Braves are swimming up-stream just to get to a .500 record, it is understandable to want to know how things will play out.
To that, we offer you the 2025 edition of the Battery Power Almanac (BPA). This has become a regular feature each spring, where we unplug the AI assistance; forge analytical projection and go analog.
In a world full of machine-learning, we take it back to the rocking chair.
Funny thing is, so far, past versions have been shockingly accurate.
Here’s the general premise – by looking at the last 40 years of seasons that end with the “5”, the BPA will predict how the season will go for the team and its players. Doubt the power of the BPA? Don’t.
(Disclaimer, this is suppose to be fun. We think. Don’t bet on these with actual currency.)
2025 Breaks Even
A .500 record. That’s it. that’s the projection. 81 wins.
Yikes.
Based on how last year ended up – and the missed time due to injuries and the above noted PED suspension, I guess it is less shocking that one might think – especially after the 0-7 start to the season.
1985: 66-96
1995: 90-54
2005: 90-72
2015: 67-95
Adjusting for the shortened 1995 season, the BPA projection is 81-81.
If you think this is foolish – and you didn’t click the link above – BPA projected the 2024 Braves to win 87 games. They won 89.
Extreme Outcomes
When it comes to the playoffs, the projection of the regular season takes into account the average win total which, in this case, fails to highlight the extremes. On one hand, two seasons were amongst the worst in Atlanta history. On the other two hands, a NL East Division title and a World Series Championship.
BPA is struggling with the extremes. It’s more than words. And three hands.
The playoffs are a borderline chance with a deep playoff run upside. Or a complete disaster not even making it to 70 mins.
Hang on. Something is happening with BPA. There’s whirring. Now there’s smoke BPA can not compute.
A 3rd place finish in the NL East in 2025 is sadness but also what BPA sees happening.
1985: 5th, NL West
1995: World Series Champions
2005: 1st, NL East
2015: 4th, NL East
2025 All-Star or Two
The All-Star Game returns to Atlanta for the first time in 25 years. That literally was a lifetime ago – it was before 9/11, before Sprite Tropical Remix, before social media and cell phones with cameras.
Chipper Jones hit a home run and got three hits and didn’t win the MVP because Derek Jeter did. Yuck.
Regardless of how the team is playing by the the All-Star break, Braves fans may stuff the ballot boxes – er, well – spoof a lot of email addresses to vote often to get at a bevy of Braves on the field for the ASG. But given how 2025 has gone mid-way through April, even Braves fans might have a hard time voting for players who aren’t exactly All-Star worth.
BPA projects two All-Stars, one position player and one pitcher. One Spencer and Austin Riley, seems like the safest bet to it.
The history:
1985: Dale Murphy* (CF)
1995: Fred McGriff* (1B), Greg Maddux (SP)
2005: Andruw Jones (CF), John Smoltz (SP)
2015: Shelby Miller (SP)
*- All-Star Game starter
Postseason Awards
The Braves are on a 45-win pace, which would make the 2024 Chicago White Sox look across-the-street neighbors. Not all postseason awards are tied to team performance, so maybe there’s some hope here.
MVP
Team wins. Players get votes. Team loses. Players get no votes. That’s a decent baseline for MVP.
Atlanta will win more games than 45 this year, but winning even 85 games looks more-and-more challenging making the odds of a Braves player winning an MVP that much more difficult.
BPA thinks Austin Riley gets votes above 10 but below 3 for a 6th place finish.
1985: Dale Murphy, 7th
1995: Greg Maddux, 3rd; Chipper Jones, 18th; Fred McGriff, 20th
2005: Andruw Jones, 2nd; Marcus Giles, 26th
2015: LOL, no. You were expecting Jonny Gomes, maybe?
Cy Young
Two Spencers are better than one. Both Strider and Schwellenbach could finish with a shot at Mr. Cy but both finishing in the top three like in 1995 seems unlikely but BPA believes they will be closer 1995 than no votes at all.
1985: Rick Mahler, you wonderful Opening Day starter, you.
1995: Greg Maddux, WINNER; Tom Glavine, 3rd
2005: Jorge Sosa might have been the team’s second best pitcher. Really.
2015: Williams Perez casts his lonely eyes at you.
Rookie of the Year
Drake Baldwin, if he got enough playing time, could factor into the NL ROY race but he may not get enough at bats to make that happen. BPA didn’t see Schwelly getting votes in 2024 and no one else did either. He didn’t get any, but he should have. BPA sees the same for Baldwin this year.
1985: Brad Komminsk. Sigh.
1995: Larry Wayne Jones, 2nd
2005: Jeff Francoeur, 3rd
2015: For 16 games, there was Sugar Ray Marimón, because it is good to have friends.
One Manager, Two Managers
Brian Snitker is an organizational man – 49 years. If the wheels fall off – and friends, some lug nuts are loose – would the Braves move on from Snitker before the season ends? That would be an unceremonious way for things to end but even if it wasn’t a firing – an early retirement, perhaps – it is at least plausible.
One the flip-side, a race to the finish with a playoff appearance after early season struggles could vault Snitker into the MOY conversation. Crazier things have happened.
1985: Bobby Cox was MOY but for the Toronto Blue Jays. (Bobby Wine and Eddie Haas split duties with Atlanta.)
1995: Bobby Cox, 3rd.
2005: Bobby Cox, 1st.
2015: Erased from memory.
Top Players
At this point, BPA cares not about your bWAR vs. fWAR arguments. BPA just wants bowl of ice cream.
Here are Baseball-Reference top player for each of the years ending with “5” and BPA says Austin Riley and Spencer Schwellenbach in 2025.
1985: Dale Murphy, 5.0 bWAR; Rick Mahler 4.7 bWAR
1995: David Justice, 3.9 bWAR; Greg Maddux, 9.6 bWAR
2005: Andruw Jones, 6.7 bWAR; John Smoltz, 5.0 bWAR
2015: Andrelton Simmons, 4.2 fWAR; Shelby Miller, 4.2 bWAR
Can we take a moment to appreciate Greg Maddux’s 1994 and 1995 seasons?
Yikes, Again.
Smoke signals. Messages in bottles. Hail Marys. This 2025 season is not looking great for the second season in-a-row according to the BPA and also eyeballs.
What’s the adage about a division can’t be won in April but it can be lost in April?
To paraphrase the words of that great fictional head ball coach, Jimmy McGinty, what this Braves team needs is heart. Lots and lots of heart.
There’s still time for Atlanta to turn it around but you don’t need to be BPA to see that the odds are getting longer and the Braves need their version of Shane Falco to come running out the tunnel.
Ronald Acuña, Jr., anyone?