The Braves got huge contributions from rookies in 2024, while making a handful of trades utilizing prospects
Prospect list season is in full swing, and here at Battery Power we are gearing up to release our top 30 prospects next week. With that in mind, I want to expand some of the coverage surrounding our prospect list release this season, starting with a look back at prospects from last season that are no longer eligible for our list. This is mostly headlined by a solid graduating trio of pitchers, but the Atlanta Braves also made a handful of trades and even released a couple of players who got prospect recognition on our preseason 2024 list.
Graduates
The Braves were expected to turn to their well of pitching prospects as a way of covering innings in 2024, but I don’t think anyone expected Spencer Schwellenbach to be the player that would be by far Atlanta’s most productive rookie. While I had pegged Schwellenbach, our preseason #3 prospect, as a breakout candidate and one whose ability was far ahead of at the time paltry swing-and-miss numbers, he continued to amaze me more as the season went on. I had expected Schwellenbach to move through Rome quickly and then really make his name at Mississippi, but the Braves flew him straight into Atlanta after just eight total starts and two in Mississippi. I then expected him to struggle as the season progressed, both with the expected struggles of a rookie and the struggles of a player with a career-high of only 65 innings. He blew that career-high up by over 100 extra innings. I’ve never seen anything like what Schwellenbach did, and he certainly justified our aggressive placement of him in the third spot.
Daysbel Hernandez did not rank on our preseason top 30 last year and that’s certainly looking like a whiff on our end. While Hernandez has struggled to get consistent time in Atlanta that isn’t a matter of his own ability. Last season in 18 innings he posted a 2.50/2.11/3.45 ERA/FIP/xFIP while striking out a team-leading 35.1% of batters faced, but having options doomed him to be shuttled to Gwinnett for most of the season. With the bullpen a bit thinned out there may now be more space for Hernandez to have a breakout season in 2025, and to further prove his exclusion from our list a mistake.
For as improbable as Schwellenbach’s ascent was, Grant Holmes’s breakout was in a tier of its own in terms of the unexpected. The 28-year-old former first round pick had a solid showing in 2023 in Gwinnett, but was an afterthought when looking at the Braves plans for 2024. Holmes was terrific out of Gwinnett’s bullpen to start the season, showcasing his slider that marks the signature of his arsenal, and the Braves gave him his long-awaited opportunity to debut on June 16th. Holmes became a reliable member of Atlanta’s pitching corps, making seven starts and 19 relief appearances and putting up a 3.56/3.20/3.52 split. Holmes was a terrific find for Atlanta and hopes to build on his breakout success in 2025.
Trades
Not long after our top 30 list started to release, our 26th-ranked prospect Tyler Owens was dealt to the Texas Rangers in exchange for JP Martinez. Martinez struggled with limited playing time in Atlanta and only a .684 OPS in Gwinnett, while Owens has had some success while getting sent off in another trade. Owens put up a 2.80/3.01/3.69 split with Texas’s Double-A affiliate before being shipped to Detroit as part of the deal that landed the Rangers Carson Kelly. With Detroit’s Double-A affiliate Owens saw a jump in strikeout rate and an overall 3.31/3.01/3.20 split across 13 appearances. Owens is hanging on at the back end of Detroit’s top 30 prospects.
Sabin Ceballos was one of the guys we were most excited about headed into 2024. We gave him an aggressive ranking at number 14 on the preseason list, reflective of a guy we thought could hit for power and play solid third base defense, but the season did not pan out like that. Ceballos hit well, with a .353 on base percentage in Rome, but he struggled to make impact contact and making too many mistakes on defense. Ceballos started to show some signs of life into summer, but the Braves made him a part of the deal to get Jorge Soler and Luke Jackson from the Giants at the trade deadline. Ceballos went over to the Giants High-A affiliate and had a fantastic final 32 games, hitting .295/.364/.549 (149 wRC+) with seven home runs in 140 plate appearances. This reignited excitement for Ceballos, who Baseball America now ranks as the Giants #16 prospect, and we all hope to see Ceballos continue to ride this wave forward.
It’s been a tough road for Jared Johnson, but as the Rome Emperors closer in 2024 he flourished with a 2.60/3.50/3.73 split. Johnson was ranked as an honorable mention going into the season, and was starting to see his stock increase with his performance throughout the season. Johnson’s command was still a problem, but with a fastball regularly in the upper 90s and a biting slider Johnson produced the highest swinging strike rate in the system, and seems to be a player who could be a late bloomer. Johnson was traded to the Athletics for Nick Allen, where he is not ranked as a top 30 prospect.
Released
Jesse Franklin ranked 27th on our preseason top 30 last year, and after putting up the best contact and plate discipline performance of his career the hope was that the 2020 third round pick could finally be in position to have a breakout year. His raw power has always remained eye-popping, and the Braves certainly could have used another outfielder with power this past season, but once again injuries took a toll on Franklin. He missed the entire season following shoulder surgery, and after just 109 games in his past three seasons with Atlanta he was released on Wednesday January 29th.
Javier Valdes was an honorable mention last season after producing yet another year where he was able to post a high on base percentage with solid power. Valdes struggled to find playing time in 2024, however, hampered by the lack of a real defensive home, and his numbers suffered dramatically as a result. Valdes was released on July 28th last season.