If it could go wrong, it did for the 2024 Atlanta Braves. The tough year resulted in a second-place finish in the NL East, ending a six-year streak of division titles and any hope of the modern Braves approaching their own MLB record 14-year streak from 1991-2005. Optimists will point out that the team still won 89 games and made the playoffs. Given the numerous injuries and underperformances, this fact should inspire hope for 2025.
Naturally, the Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta’s biggest challenger in the division throughout their recent run of success, took home the crown instead. They remain formidable, having returned most of their star-studded roster. Steve Cohen, his abyssal pockets, and the New York Mets also loom as a major contender, having made the biggest splash of the offseason by signing star outfielder Juan Soto. This is the most stacked division in the league, and almost every preseason power ranking has the Braves, Phillies, and Mets inside the top five teams in the entire MLB.
Atlanta is generally regarded as the betting favorite for winning the NL East. However, anyone who thinks it will be easy is fooling themselves. Let’s explore a few things that would go a long way toward the Braves reclaiming the NL East crown in 2025.
Less Injuries
Every team deals with at least a handful of impactful injuries each season, but they were too much for Atlanta to overcome a year ago. Notable Braves to miss significant time in 2024 include Spencer Strider, Ronald Acuña Jr., Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris II, and Sean Murphy. Surely it can’t be that bad again, right?
The Braves’ quiet offseason indicates that they are counting on a cleaner bill of health to go a long way this year. While injuries are unpredictable and an obvious luck factor is involved here, the Braves need Murphy’s Law not to repeat itself to make a run at the division.
Sean Murphy (no relation) will miss Opening Day with a cracked rib, but should be back within a few weeks. Riley and new addition Jurickson Profar had scares at different points this spring, but have avoided worst-case scenarios and will be ready to go. Strider and Acuña should both return before mid-May, and it will be imperative for them to return to form quickly.
Odd Year Olson
Nearly every starting position player on the roster is a candidate for positive regression, but we’ll focus on first baseman Matt Olson here. He was one of the few regulars to play a full campaign last year (suiting up in all 162 games for the third consecutive season) but had one of the worst offensive seasons of his career (29 home runs, .247/.333/.457).
If history is any indication, Olson should bounce back with a bang in 2025. Somewhat infamously, he is a considerably better hitter in odd-numbered years. Braves fans hope this trend will continue for another season. Since becoming a full-time starter in 2018, Olson’s year-by-year OPS has gone like this: .788, .896, .734, .911, .802, .993, .790.
The lineup is so deep that no major burden falls on any one starter, but Olson seems to be under the most pressure of anyone to perform. He will occupy an important spot in the middle of the order as Atlanta’s primary left-handed threat, and Marcell Ozuna can’t be asked to carry the offense again. The Braves need Olson to return to All-Star form.
Will The Rotation Remain Elite?
The Braves had a top-five starting rotation last year by nearly every significant metric. Such success will be difficult to repeat, but they probably need to come close in order to win the NL East. While this is certainly well within the range of outcomes, there are questions.
Chris Sale and Reynaldo Lopez are almost certain to see their ridiculous 2024 stats regress a bit, but can they remain well-above average? Sale isn’t getting any younger, and Lopez just threw his most innings in five years. As mentioned, Strider will be back soon and should be incredible once again, but his health will be worth monitoring. Can Spencer Schwellenbach and Grant Holmes carry over their out-of-nowhere elite performances and become rotation fixtures? A wild card is top pitching prospect AJ Smith-Shawver, who recently won the fifth starter role. He has the stuff to be a top-notch starter in the league, but hasn’t yet broken out; doing so would be an amazing boost for this already stellar group.
Can The Bullpen Sustain The Loss Of Minter?
At the moment, the bullpen appears to be the weakest link of the Braves’ stacked roster. Longtime stalwart AJ Minter is now a Met and will be difficult to replace. The back-end quartet of Raisel Iglesias, Dylan Lee, Pierce Johnson, and Aaron Bummer has the potential to be very strong, but Iglesias is 35 and the latter two are coming off shaky seasons. Atlanta probably needs at least three of these four to be excellent.
Positive contributions from any of Daysbel Hernandez, Enyel de los Santos, or Jose Suarez would be crucial toward stabilizing this group. Hernandez, in particular, has shown flashes in brief significant league stints and could emerge as another high-leverage option. If Hector Neris and/or Craig Kimbrel are able to turn back the clock, it would also go a long way. But if none of these things happen, fear not, Braves fans, there’s always Jesse Chavez to bail everyone out once again.
Main Photo Credits: Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images
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