Everyone is talking about it elsewhere, may as well do so here.
By this point, you’re probably aware that 2025 Chris Sale hasn’t had 2024 NL Cy Young Chris Sale results. His three Game Scores (v2) have been 53, 51, and 33 last night; in 2024, he didn’t have three Game Scores at 53 or below until getting blown up by the Athletics on June 1. That’s not to say he’s actually pitching much worse or anything — just getting BABIPed to an insane degree: Sale finished last year at 57/53/66 (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-) and is now at 166/79/81. Basically, still really good, not as good, and holy mother of God, a .386 BABIP-against. In case you wanted to argue about quality of contact, well… his xERA is 3.94, so… yeah.
But, the big thing yesterday was Sale’s velocity. Especially in the second inning and thereafter, it wasn’t what we’ve come to expect from him. Last year, Sale’s only two starts where he averaged under 93.5 mph of fastball velocity came in September; he was at or above 94.5 mph in average velocity in most of his starts. This year, though, his three starts have averaged 94.2 mph (in the opener), then 93.1 mph, and 92.7 mph yesterday. Sale himself didn’t really comment directly on that aspect of his game, which will only fuel the speculation (that this post is also fueling).
So, what do you think is going on? There are lots of possibilities: injury (or impending injury), trying to dial it back for command’s sake, trying to dial it back just to get through the season, a post-Spring Training dead arm sort of thing, aliens, you’ve got the gamut to choose from.
Daily Notes
Record: 2-8
Yesterday’s wOBA and xwOBA: .418 / .331 (Season rank: 24th | 19th)
Yesterday’s wOBA and xwOBA allowed: .328 / .355 (Season rank: 19th | 23rd)
Yesterday’s homers: 1
Yesterday’s homers allowed: 1
Record when out-xwOBAing: 1-3 (League: 127-38)
Record when out-xwOBAed: 1-5 (League: 38-127)
Record when out-wOBAing: 2-1 (League: 143-23)
Record when out-wOBAed: 0-7 (League: 23-143)
Record when outhomering: 1-1 (League: 82-23)
Record when outhomered: 0-5 (League: 23-82)