You might want to consider buying a ticket to next Thursday’s game vs. Philly.
It’s been said with many words on this site and on podcasts and on every corner of social media in existence, but sweet mother of god, that was a horrifying, nightmarish 7 days. Between the Jurickson Profar PED suspension, the Reynaldo López shoulder injury, and the 0-7 record, the Atlanta Braves just had what has to be their worst week of regular season baseball since September 2011, when they completed an implosion that lost them an 8.5 game lead on the NL Wild Card spot within a month’s time.
I won’t blame you if you don’t want to think about anything positive for now. It’s hard not to feel completely defeated, which should be crazy to say after just one week (but again, holy hell, what a week it was). If you are looking for some sort of light at the end of the tunnel, however, then I have a tiny pebble of good news to offer. Spencer Strider might be back sooner than you think.
Strider is scheduled to take the mound for Gwinnett tonight in what will be his second rehab appearance. In his last appearance on Saturday, he threw 3 innings and worked his pitch count up to 60 pitches. He looked pretty good, striking out 6 vs. just one walk and one earned run. For tonight, he’ll likely be looking to get up to ~75 pitches and hopefully will be able to work at least into the 5th inning.
If Reynaldo López was still around, the Braves would probably like to get Strider one more rehab appearance so he could work up to 90 pitches in a more controlled environment. But there’s an important series coming up vs. Philadelphia that might convince them to bring up their star pitcher a little sooner.
If the Braves keep their current rotation on turn, Sale would get game one vs. Philly, Elder game two, and Schwelly game three. With an off day on Monday, however, Schwellenbach could take the ball in game two on normal rest, and Strider could make his long-awaited return to the big leagues on an extra day of rest in game three on Thursday, April 10th, a year and five days after his last big league start.
It may feel like a bit of a desperation play after the brutal beginning to the season, but I actually think it’s just common sense. A healthy López can handle just about any lineup in baseball, and while Strider is a better pitcher, it probably helps the rest of the staff out more to have someone like ReyLó ready to throw 90-100 pitches than it does to have Strider for 75-85. If López were here, it would make sense to let Strider get one more outing with Gwinnett and bring him back up when he’s fully ready to take on the workload.
But, if it’s Strider for 75-85 pitches or Elder for 90-100, I don’t think there’s much of a difference in terms of the expected number of outs they might get. Elder remains what he is – a fringy depth piece that can fill in on occasion for spot starts – but the Phillies lineup has proven several times that it is quite challenging for him to hold in check. As for Strider? Aside from one postseason start that was his first back from injury (where he clearly ran out of gas after a couple of innings and was left in the game far too long), he has completely owned the Phillies in his career. In 9 regular season starts, for instance, he has dominated them to the tune of a ludicrous 40.6% K, 6.1% BB, 2.06 ERA, and 2.12 FIP.
I could be wrong about this, of course. The Braves might prioritize building Strider’s pitch count fully in Triple-A over winning a game vs. Philly in April. If that’s the case, he would likely be back the following week, maybe April 16th in Toronto. But, considering *gestures wildly in the direction of Cobb County,* I expect Atlanta to be motivated to bring him back next week for a start against Philly. He could provide a real jolt for what has otherwise been a lifeless ballclub to start the year.
It likely depends somewhat on how Strider performs in his rehab start tonight. If he’s able to get through at least four innings and get his pitch count close to 75, I’m personally expecting to see him when I attend next Thursday’s game. And who knows? Maybe Sean Murphy will even be behind the plate to catch him.
As a fan who is desperate for something to look forward to (and the proud owner of a ticket to Thursday’s game), I sure hope I’m right.