In 8 seasons in MLB, we still have never seen Ozzie Albies perform like a below-average player.
Just like his fellow Atlanta Braves teammates Ronald Acuña Jr, Sean Murphy, and Michael Harris II, Ozzie Albies had a career-worst, injury-marred 2024 season. Aren’t we glad that it’s finally 2025?
Before Ozzie’s wrist injury in July, he wasn’t playing at his superb 2023 level (125 wRC+, 33 HR, 4.1 fWAR), but he wasn’t as bad as you might remember. He had a 98 wRC+ and 1.3 fWAR across 394 PA, a 2.1 fWAR per 650 PA pace.
He struggled badly after his return from the wrist injury in 2024, hitting .184/.244/.368 with a 68 wRC+ and 0.0 fWAR while taking his final 41 plate appearances from the right side of the plate. Strange things happen in small samples, and in his temporary departure from switch-hitting, he actually had a 98 wRC+ in 33 PA vs. RHP while going 0-7 with a walk vs. LHP. Whether he wasn’t yet 100% or hadn’t had enough time to readjust to live pitching, he certainly wasn’t himself after rushing back to try and provide some substance to a starving offense.
After his rough season, the fanbase’s sentiment towards Ozzie seems to have soured a bit more than he deserves. There has been an every-other-year component to his offense and health that has caused some fans to deem him “unreliable.” Defensively, the perception among many seems to be that he has declined into one of the worst 2B in the league (there have even been suggestions of him taking over DH duties after Marcell Ozuna’s contract expires following the 2025 season). The most pessimistic fans combine the inconsistent offense with the allegedly terrible defense and see the floor of a replacement-level player.
In reality, even his bad offensive seasons are still fine, and his defensive decline has been greatly overstated.
Let’s first examine the every-other-year phenomenon:
(If you are on a mobile device, this table is best viewed in landscape mode.)
Since the start of the 2019 season, he’s been terrific in the three odd years and dealt with injuries and underperformance in the even years. However, the underperformance aspect of his even year seasons has been exaggerated by some, and consequently the claims of him being inconsistent are overblown. Let’s extrapolate every season of his career to 650 PA:
(If you are on a mobile device, this table is best viewed in landscape mode.)
So, in a career-worst 2024, he was still on pace for a roughly average season (2.0 fWAR is considered an average player). In each of the other 7 seasons of his career, he played at a definitively above-average level. And despite his only two below average offensive seasons taking place in 2022 and 2024, he still has a 109 wRC+ over the past three years combined, which is nearly identical to his career 108 wRC+.
As for his defense, it is probably more accurately described as “varying” than “in decline.” FRV has witnessed a couple of outstanding seasons, one terrible season, and a bunch of roughly average seasons. DRS has been more consistent, giving him a roughly average defensive rating in each of the last four seasons.
It’s true that Ozzie’s range has declined since his early days in the bigs, and his arm strength is now among the weakest in MLB. He is by no means a Gold Glove caliber 2B anymore, but he continues to rate roughly average in range, not far below average in double play runs, and above average when it comes to converting the plays that he is able to get to. In fact, his 3 errors in 2024 were the fewest of any 2B with at least 850 innings at the position.
Looking ahead to 2025, both Steamer and ZiPS see Ozzie as a productive player once again. Steamer projects him for a 112 wRC+ and 3.3 fWAR in 673 PA – a top 10 projection amongst 2B in MLB – while ZiPS has started to see him as a bit of an injury risk, projecting a 107 OPS+ and 2.5 fWAR in just 516 PA. He may never reach the MVP levels that some of us dreamed about after his first couple of seasons in the big leagues, but he’s as safe a bet there is to play like a 2-4 fWAR player when he’s on the field, and there is more value in a consistently average or better player than some fans may realize.