The Braves just don’t seem all that excited about giving key situations to arguably their best reliever
Since the start of the 2024 season, there have been 127 relievers in baseball that have thrown 60 or more innings. Of those 127, Aaron Bummer ranks eighth in FIP-, fourth in xFIP-, and 15th in SIERA. At the same time, of those 127, only ten have entered games, on average, in lower leverage.
Is this the result of sort of “Aaron Bummer can’t pitch in high leverage” thing? Well, no. Last year, he had a 2.62 FIP and 3.03 xFIP in high leverage. His career leverage split is hilariously nonexistent: he actually has the exact same FIP and xFIP in low leverage as high leverage, something that seems like a calculation or display error given how absurdly it is. (One? Maybe, sure. But both, the same to the hundredths place? Absurd.)
Coming into 2025, Bummer was projected to be the Braves’ best reliever. With a bullpen that started the season more clearly delineated (at least in theory) between “good relievers” and “bad relievers,” it looked like things were set up for Bummer to actually get to work in the role that was unceremoniously yoinked from him last year. In a vacuum, his usage has at least been somewhat consistent with “this is a good reliever” — before last night, he had five outings, two of which were decidedly towards the higher end of leverage, two of which were still elevated leverage, and only one of which was garbage time.
But, Bummer worked total garbage time last night in a blowout. Now, you could say, there was an ameliorating factor: he was coming off bereavement leave, and maybe the team wanted to ease him back into playing. But, the net result is that he ended up throwing 26 pitches and is likely down for tomorrow, a game which has no guarantees of featuring any garbage time.
More to the point: among his relief teammates so far in 2025, Bummer ranks sixth in average leverage when entering a game, below even Jose Suarez. In terms of actual leverage-while-on-the-mound, he’s eighth — literally the lowest in the bullpen. And, again, this is the guy that has a pretty good shot of being the team’s best reliever when all is said and done. It’s just weird. So, is he going to escape this particular purgatory, or not?
Daily Notes
Record: 5-11
Yesterday’s wOBA and xwOBA: .369/ .428 (Season rank: 17th | 15th)
Yesterday’s wOBA and xwOBA allowed: .378 / .343 (Season rank: 24th | 25th)
Yesterday’s homers: 3
Yesterday’s homers allowed: 1
Record when out-xwOBAing: 3-4 (League: 183-57)
Record when out-xwOBAed: 2-7 (League: 57-183)
Record when out-wOBAing: 5-1 (League: 208-33)
Record when out-wOBAed: 0-10 (League: 33-208)
Record when outhomering: 3-1 (League: 129-31)
Record when outhomered: 0-7 (League: 31-129)